Anthropic’s recent growth slowdown is temporary. OpenAI’s Astra launch likely pulled users over for testing, hurting Anthropic’s monthly revenue momentum. I expect growth to re-accelerate next month as that trial period fades. #Anthropic#OpenAI#Astra#AI
Tomorrow’s PPI could come in hot and add more selling pressure near term. But after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday, I expect the market to turn higher and buyers to step back in. #SPX#NASDAQ#Fed#PPI
I added to $NBIS at $190. The valuation still looks very cheap on a P/EV basis, especially given the growth runway in AI infrastructure and data centers. #NBIS#Nebius#AI#DataCenters#Trade
CXMT’s growth looks more like China supply substitution than a global DRAM disruption. China consumes ~1/3 of global DRAM, enough to absorb much of CXMT’s added output. For now, this is not a major bearish signal for the global memory market. #CXMT#DRAM#Memory#MU
Big AI catalyst tomorrow: Anthropic meets select institutional investors ahead of its IPO. Watch for key numbers on revenue growth, compute costs, margins and CapEx — potentially crucial for the entire AI trade. #Anthropic#AI
#4
I bought Intel at $100. At this level, I like the risk/reward and see meaningful upside if the server CPU and foundry recovery continues. #INTC#Intel#Semiconductors#AI#DataCenter
Short-dated call buyers in $MRNA 👀
Possible positioning for a bounce.
• $756.2K in call buying at the ask
• Oct. 16 expiry — just 4 days left
• 1,063 $220 calls + 160 $230 calls
• Includes $292K in call sweeps
• No put flow in this view
Big short-dated put buyer in $SPCX 👀
Possible more downside ahead.
• Oct. 16 $165 puts — 4 days left
• 2,800 traded at the ask in 5 min
• ~$1.09M total window premium
• Shares at $164.03
Could be a bearish bet or a sizable hedge.
BOFA: U.S. TREASURY YIELDS MAY NEED TO HIT 6% TO DERAIL STOCK RALLY
Bank of America's latest fund manager survey finds that 10-year Treasury yields would need to approach 6% before investors meaningfully shift money from stocks into bonds.
Key findings:
🔸 76% expect the Fed to hold rates steady in October.
🔸 Technology exposure is the highest since August 2020.
🔸 Consumer discretionary exposure is the lowest since July 2008.
🔸 Long semiconductors remains the most crowded trade.
🔸 Biggest market risks: A disorderly bond yield surge and an AI bubble.
Investors are reducing exposure to banks and U.S. stocks, while increasing allocations to bonds, utilities, Japan and the UK.
Bottom line: Equity sentiment remains resilient, but rising yields and AI-related risks are becoming major concerns.
$SKHY $MU 4.7x today.
If we ever go under 3x, Micron could buy back most of its own shares with the ~$500B Morgan Stanley projects it earns by 2028.
Does that make sense? Would the market ever allow it?