Gary Carson

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

Tesla might be clearing inventory to make room for the new affordable model. The 40% production capacity may have been used for this new model which Tesla is keeping under wraps until sometime this quarter. It may have such a huge demand that they want to stock-up to minimize the wait time.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

Many people that planned to buy a new car in October or November have/will place their “orders” by the end of September to take advantage of the $7,500 EV tax credit. This surge in orders will appear as deliveries in October and perhaps half of November - perhaps mitigating a huge drop of orders in the first half of the 4th quarter.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@garyblack00 @farzyness Can you tell us who the top three car manufacturers are that will be deploying an unsupervised autonomous service by the end of next year?

I want to invest wisely and would like to know more about the impending competition.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

Waymo has been operating autonomously for 6 or 7 years, are they profitable? Was Uber, Lyft or Waymo profitable after their first few months of operations? Are they profitable today?

What publicly traded startup do you know of that was profitable in the first few months of initial deployment?

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

I predict Tesla will move to a Netflix-like monthly subscription model starting out initially at perhaps $750/month then gradually lower and lower to about $450 or $500/month for up to 12,000 miles per year. It makes the decision wether to buy a second or third car a no-brainer - the car loan, insurance, fuel, maintenance, parking, registration and tickets costs.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@garyblack00 @thejefflutz 1) Tesla’s Robotaxis will drive 50,000 miles or more annually.
2) Of course Tesla will remove the Safety Monitors. Waymo went through this same process with Safety Monitors for a much longer period of time than Tesla will have them (probably before January in Austin).

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

Many think that the Safety Monitors will be used until sometime after these Robotaxis having been running FSD 14 for a few weeks in order to validate this new FSD version. It doesn’t make sense to get rid of the Safety Monitors before v14 is released - which may have software regressions that increases the number of engagements and diminish safety.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

They will most likely launch with a Safety Monitor in the passenger seat like they are doing in Austin, whether it is required by regulations or not. Tesla has to protect itself against huge lawsuits and delays in adoption if they are seen by a jury and the media that they rushed to market at the expense of safety. They need to be able to show that they went above and beyond requirements to ensure safety and have the data to prove it.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@elonmusk @grok What year was the more affordable model announced and what was the predicted delivery date

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@garyblack00 @ICannot_Enough In what state can you drive your Tesla running Supervised FSD from the passenger seat??? You will get a ticket in every state in this country “driving” like this.

Tesla is deploying SAE Level 4 autonomy in Austin!

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@GeorgioAdonis @garyblack00 @ICannot_Enough They process or a simular process will probably have to be repeated (perhaps more like in Austin) for every new city they wish to deploy Robotaxi service, but it will be awesome when the first city has only passengers in the car! This will quiet hopefully all of the skeptics.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

California law doesn’t allow the use of the term taxi at this point in the deployment process. Tesla is conducting a supervised autonomous ride hailing service to generate the data to verify the efficacy of the pre-autonomous service, before they can move to the next phase of the regulatory process.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

California autonomous vehicle law is different from Texas laws. California requires autonomous vehicle companies to first verify the efficacy of the service with data obtained from miles driven in the desired service area using supervised autonomy (driver in the driver’s seat supervising the autonomous vehicle). The next step most likely is proving efficacy with driving data using a Safety Monitor in the passenger seat.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

When a person is in the driver’s seat they are driving they are a driver providing supervision for FSD Supervised operations. In Austin when there is no one in the driver’s seat, the vehicle is operating as an autonomous Level 4 vehicle with a Safety Monitor in the front passenger seat. Tesla takes full responsibility of any incident or accident (SAE Level 4 autonomy) because the Safety Monitor is a Tesla employee and no one is in the driver’s seat.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

I’ve always believed that Tesla should try a focused ad campaign targeting to Baby Boomers on mainstream media because many Boomers still get much of their information from mainstream media. Tesla could inform Boomers just how affordable and safe Tesla EVs are. Most Boomers are retiring with adequate income to afford a Tesla Model Y (compared to a fully loaded Camry, RAV4, or CRV. Many Boomers are suffering from failing eyesight, slowing reaction times, fatigue, night vision and many have never been good at multitasking (driving while looking at the Google Maps on their cellphones). Even this group may not be early adaptors, most would probably want to buy an autonomous capable vehicle - especially if they are planning to keep this car for 7 to 10 years or more. FSD is a godsend for them!

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@ironted21 @wholemars If the US had 30% or 40% less cars on the road, the accident rate would go done exponentially as well. The accident rate wouldn’t just decline by 30% or 40%.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@wholemars We really need to see a graph of number of crashed per vehicle because the haters will use a similar graph for Tesla as Tesla scales from 20 Robotaxis to 20,000 Robotaxis. It is totally logical and expected that there will be a lot more accidents with 20,000 vehicles than 20.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

A hatchback could be a lot smaller than the Model Y and be viewed as a completely different model so the comparison to the Model Y will be less applicable. It also wouldn’t cheapen the public perception of the Model Y, especially if the hatchback had fewer premium features to make it affordable.

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

@garyblack00 Blockbuster was at their all time highs right before they were disrupted by Netflix!

[Gary Carson @CarSong2021]

Remember during and post pandemic when Tesla was rising prices and had the best gross margins in the company's history. Remember when you ordered a Tesla, you had to wait 6 to 9 months. Because of Tesla was vertically integration and and their localized supply chains, they were not as impacted by the global supply disruption. Tesla outperformed while others suffered.