CFS Research

Director en Tech & Director Financiero | Inversor Privado desde 2021. Contenido no constituye asesoría de inversión. No publico desde ninguna otra cuenta en X.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Let's double-click on $IREN and revisit why this is such a no-brainer investment that is massively undervalued.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

$IREN does have $318m of convertible debt in the balance sheet, but the image summarizes pretty well why Iren is my highest conviction investment right now. Keep in mind Iren is the most efficient BTC miner ($20k electricity per BTC) + $26m ARR from AI Cloud Services!

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@miweintraub83 Buen análisis! Sería interesante ver municipios con (a) incremento significativo en participación y (b) alta concentración de los votos en un candidato.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@JoeValue Great article!

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

I love Bernardo and he'll bring a ton of competitive spirit. With that said, pretty disappointed (though not surprised) on the management of Nico Paz.

First Guler, then Mastantuono, now Bernardo. At this point, pretty difficult to figure what exactly a young La Fabrica player needs to do to earn a spot in the first team.

And don't get me wrong; I love Guler and I believe Bernardo will have a pretty impactful role, at least his first couple years. I just don't think this is the right management for the youth academy.

Nico is right on trying to have a 3rd year at Como. He is not repeating Odegaard mistake. But bringing Bernardo (and the contractual commitment) is a club bet that will make pretty hard for Nico to come back.

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨 Bernardo Silva to Real Madrid, HERE WE GO! Agreement in place and contract approved.

Two year deal plus one year option, fast deal by Madrid started 36h ago and closed immediately.

Mourinho wanted Bernardo, he says yes and advanced talks revealed today are 100% confirmed.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Telecom Plus PLC $TEP is a UK's integrated multi-service utility reseller offering energy, broadband, mobile and insurance. Currently has 1.4M customers and its been growing steadily at 17% CAGR since 2023 (12% organic ), trading below 10x P/E. Seems good at 10000 foot view!

April 28 had a profit warning (FY 2026 profits on low end of guidance due to lower energy usage, more on why they don't save below) and change in dividends policy (from +80% to +50%), triggering a 11% price drop (oh nice, cheaper because there is no dividend!).

By being a reseller, the business is capital light, with ROIC over 20%. However, this means $TEP does not own the infrastructure and the business model mainly depends on distribution.

Distribution is based on 77k self-employed network that runs on commission. CAC is around 200 pounds, plus a monthly % of the bill that is around ~2%. Pure multimarketing, Herbalife distribution model.

Monthly revenues of 130 pounds and 20% margin, leading to 26 pounds monthly profit or ~300 annual. With churn being at 14%, LTV is roughly 2100 pounds. New adds likely have lower revenues vs. average customer, so is reasonable to haircut this by 33%, getting a 1400 LTV. This means LTV/CAC ratio is healthy at 7x with <1 year payback.

Since $TEP owns no infrastructure, how much leverage does the infrastructure providers have on $TEP? As expected, low to none. Telecom is a price taker, with lion share of costs concentrated in E.ON energy provider, which is pegged to the Ofgem price cap. This means Telecom cannot offer below price cap prices without giving up on margin, like other firms such as Octopus does. This is why a warmer winter did not translate into savings.

I take this for what it is. Telecom approaches the industry with capital light model moving away from vertical integration. I don't think there is a MOAT in the model, and though you could argue that building the partner-distribution network relies on scale, I don't think this is that strong either.

Valuation is attractive, though. $TEP trades at 9.0x EV/EBIT, still has a growth runway (even is at lower paces of 4-5% growth).

I don't like the business model, so I have decided against having a position. However, I can see the stock running easily +50% from current price.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

The AI and demand for compute is a secular trend. However, the financing of this CAPEX cycle is a systemic fragility that has built over time and then will blow up suddenly.

I am pretty interested on reviewing the financials of Anthropic and OpenAI as they come available, especially their gross margin on inference.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Apollo And Blackstone Raise $35 Billion For Anthropic In One Of The Biggest Ever Private Credit SPV Deals https://t.co/seEFuUAnOO

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@MoatOwl Pretty interesting!

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

I must confess that when $KSPI started appreciating and reached a value over $90, I regretted not buying more at 70s (~1.5% of NAV).

I believe the Kazakh MOAT is pretty strong and love Turkey optionality at current valuation. I have expanded my position today 2.5x (~4% of NAV).

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Update: Closed the options on Friday at 20-35% gain.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

I have decided to trim my $IREN position by sellling 25% and covering with ATM+OTM options an additional 20%.

I remain bullish on $IREN and the business is stronger than it has ever been. I expect that it will just become stronger over time.

At the current price, there is still much upside and if $IREN delivers on Microsoft contract (most important milestone regarding credibility), revenue backlog will follow (NVIDIA's terms are significantly better) and I believe the stock should reprice above $100. So, why am I selling?

For context: I entered $IREN roughly 1 year ago and consolidated a position between March and April 2025 at roughly $5-7 entry. As the stock increased, I sold roughly 35% of my position at different price levels. However, given how much $IREN has appreciated it is still over 50% of my portfolio.

Furthermore, I believe the return profile for the stock at $60 is significantly different vs. the stock at $6. In other words: While I believe $IREN can still 3x at current price levels, we've already seen +50% drawdown in the last couple months and there is a legitimate execution risk with delays on Microsoft contract already happening.

Also, while there is an argument to be made on $IREN deliberately waiting for Microsoft contract to be delivered to close better terms on new contracts supported by recent NVIDIA's contract, $IREN has missed its own ARR guidance and Childress is taking long to be reconverted vs. aggressively moving into an air-cooled data center in 2026 as demand for compute is exploding.

My main point is that at $IREN at $7 had pretty much its downside covered and a ton of upside, even if only considering its BTC mining business model. At $60, the story is different.

Nobody ever went broke taking a profit!

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

I've been critical on $NU's expansion speed. They are moving too slow. $MELI is aggressively expanding in LatAm, Revolut too (and globally).

I believe that $NU should be pouring every dollar of their earnings on either widening their position in Brazil or opening new markets.

I think the stock's price is attractive, but I am not a fan of buybacks at this maturity stage of the company.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Read the earnings transcript. I have the impression the CPA disruption is completely outside of $ODD's control. It's good they are working with their ad partner, but the position is pretty fragile here. They may solve it but seems they are building their growth engine foundations on sand.

Probably not a short term priority but that's the elephant in the room regarding the company being or not a compounder.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@myriamisgreat @fivepointscap Also in this line. I know Berkshire invested, but seems a classic overheated market signal

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@fivepointscap And what would be the point where you would rather use equity, assuming credit worthiness is not an issue (purely from a valuation point of view)?

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

I know its Berkshire, but $GOOGL raising capital + SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI looking for an IPO is an overheated market strong signal

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@sadandlonely_69 Thoughtful reflection. I believe this is a defensive move. DoorDash has acquired subpar companies to date. DH does not have Uber/DD deep pockets but they do have leadership/strong competitive position around the globe. DD acquiring DHER is a nightmare scenario for Uber.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@Dubbiosismo Can't complain, $IREN's been good to me 😂

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Hello $DLO, my old friend.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

@Dubbiosismo In since 2024 at $8! Increasing, though. No one got a crystal ball but hard to think of a scenario were things go south.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

While $UBER has less to gain at acquiring Delivery Hero $DHER in comparison to DoorDash $DASH, they are more likely to overpay in a defensive move.

[CFS Research @CarlosFSaavedra]

Having the urge to buy Hong Kong listed Chinese residential managers below 5 P/E and net cash.