Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (https://t.co/L4fFsnXLhW)๐งต
The finding, up front:
Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
2. Inside HQ, Codex and other AI startups have dedicated offices where they hold office hours for NVIDIA employees. Never seen anything like this!
I assume because no other large tech company is the kind of "platform" for so much of the tech industry like NVIDIA. The Codex team is v popular here btw as I heard!