Carson Investment Research

Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Carson Partners offers investment advisory service through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Stocks gained more than 5% in May. The last 7 times that happened, the S&P 500 was higher a year later every time, up 21% on average, the best of any month.

We flagged this same signal a year ago, before a 28% run.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Even as the quarter played out, analysts raised estimates instead of cutting them. Forward 12-month EPS is now near $355 and continues to climb.

The trade-off: at ~21x forward earnings, the market isn't cheap.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Q1 2026, final scorecard with 97% reported:

✔️Earnings up 28.6% from a year ago
✔️85% of companies beat on earnings
✔️81% beat on sales

Net margins hit 14.8%, the highest in FactSet's data dating back to 2009.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

So, what's the catch? It was narrow. Info Tech grew 54%, but just 30% without NVIDIA and Micron. Comm Services' ~49% turns negative without Alphabet and Meta. Consumer Discretionary's 41% drops to 17% without Amazon.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Back in March, analysts expected 13.1% earnings growth for Q1.

S&P 500 companies delivered 28.6%, more than double. Our new weekly earnings check-in starts here:

https://t.co/6TehTo471y

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

This is now the 8th-longest bull market since WWII at 3.6 years. Of the 7 longest ever, only one didn't reach its 5th birthday, and they averaged over 7 years. So what if this one's only halfway over?

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

What usually happens after a 9-week win streak?

Since 1950, the S&P 500 was higher a month later 9 of 10 times, and a year later 8 of 10, with a median gain of 12%.

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[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Stocks gained more than 5% in May. The last 7 times that happened, the S&P 500 was higher a year later every time, up 21% on average, the best of any month.

We flagged this same signal a year ago, before a 28% run.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

The S&P 500 just closed higher for the 9th week in a row, its longest weekly win streak since late 2023.

@RyanDetrick on why this bull market might be only halfway over:

https://t.co/L3l0rvGxjt

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

The earnings commentary backs that up. DataDog and Snowflake each fell 50%+ in the sell-off, then jumped 31% and 36% the day after posting accelerating revenue growth. If profits hold, software may have already seen the worst.

https://t.co/Mifxmk09tA

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Software (IGV) has now had five bear markets in eight years.

Back in February, our team said the latest one looked young and might be earnings-driven. We revisited it, and the data tells a more hopeful story.

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[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

By the numbers, 2026 looked earnings-led: down 36% over 30 weeks, almost exactly the historical average for that type. The twist?

Earnings never fell. EPS is down just 3% and trailing profits just hit new highs. So maybe it was a giant price scare instead.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

A low savings rate is fine until it isn't.

People save less because stocks and homes are up, and they feel rich. If those prices fall, the wealth effect reverses, and that's how spending slowdowns become recessions.

https://t.co/fOYJSeQ900

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Consumer spending grew at a 9% annualized pace last quarter. Sounds unstoppable. But @sonusvarghese found that the headline hides two problems that matter more than the big number.

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[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

So if real incomes are falling, how is spending still humming?

Because people are saving a lot less. The savings rate dropped from 5.5% to 2.6% in a year, near a 30-year low.