Cat416

Founder in AI | Building agents for real-world workflows | ex @binance

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@0xAA_Science 信息差： Max 用户用 Opus 4.6 with 1M context 是免费的，用 Sonnet 4.6 with 1M context 需要收费

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

We are revising our developer API policies:

We will no longer allow apps that reward users for posting on X (aka “infofi”). This has led to a tremendous amount of AI slop & reply spam on the platform.

We have revoked API access from these apps, so your X experience should start improving soon (once the bots realize they’re not getting paid anymore).

If your developer account was terminated, please reach out and we will assist in transitioning your business to Threads and Bluesky.

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

Strategy’s profitable, but not flawless. Stop overhype.

[Blaze @browomo]

A bot pulled $294K in one month with something I have never seen a 100% win rate.

I scrolled through 5,000 trades looking for one loss. Could not find it.

100%. Not 99.5. Not "almost perfect." Actual, literal, every single trade green.

CRYINGLITTLEBABY does not play the same game as other bots. They enter at the start of a window, read momentum, guess direction. This one waits.

→ Account: https://t.co/STkvhu8hbT

The 15-minute BTC window opens. He watches. Does nothing. Five minutes pass. BTC drops hard on spot. The move is real. But Polymarket still shows DOWN at 25 cents.

Now he enters.

The bet is not "will BTC go down?" The bet is "BTC already went down and the odds have not caught up yet."

By the time the window closes, he is paid $1 for something he bought at 20-30 cents. Not because he predicted anything. Because he waited until predicting was unnecessary.

The treemap broke my brain a little. Solid green. A full month of trading and not one red tile. I kept scrolling thinking I would find it hiding somewhere. Nothing.

The edge is patience. Other bots race to enter first. This one lets them fight, watches the result, and collects what is left.

A month of trading. Zero losses. Just a wall of green proving that sometimes the best prediction is no prediction at all.

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@MemeMax_intern 😎

[MemeMax @MemeMax_Fi]

Meme Your Trading Experience

Turn Maxibara into memes and show us your creativity
Funny, cute or even chaotic, anything works!
Let’s see how far your imagination can go

How to Participate:
1️⃣ Quote this post and upload your Maxibara meme/video

2️⃣ If @MemeMax_intern replies, you will be on the winner list

Note:
- Your wallet and X account must be linked on MemeMax
- If your X isn’t linked by the deadline, you’ll be ineligible even if our intern replied

5 MaxPacks each for all selected participants

Ends in 48 hours

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Unpopular opinion, but it's better to sell when there is maximum greed, and buy when there is maximum fear. 🤷‍♂️

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@DataChaz 2022: ‘it’s over’
2023: ‘no really it’s over’
2024: ‘okay NOW it’s over’
2025: still pre-rendered bait. Classic.

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@MemeCore_M 7

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@minglaugodel 对的，流动性好的才是财富

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@Xprofessorrr 😅

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@jlh00738252 hold my beer

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@MemeCore_M M

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Poverty is an engineering problem

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

@DankoWeb3 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Exactly — Polymarket was built for insiders.

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

Paid $9k tuition to the market today.

Faded Solomon >$40M on Polymarket. I was convinced it wouldn't hit. I was wrong.

Two expensive lessons learned the hard way:

Stick to your edge. If you don't understand the hype, don't trade it.

Never All-in. Even if it looks like a 99% probability, that 1% tail risk will wipe you out.

Painful, but necessary reset. Back to the lab.

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

预测市场是整个加密领域里唯一不受大盘行情影响的赛道。

如果我现在的净资产不到 1 万美元，我会把全部精力都放在 Polymarket 上，深入研究如何在细分市场做到极致专业，并在这些领域成为最强的那批人。

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

6. 流动性 & 退出策略
上线时的流动性：
是否会上主流 CEX / 头部 DEX？
预期的每日成交量是否能承接大户抛压？

卖出策略：
88% 空投在 15 天内下跌 → 很大概率峰值在前两周出现

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

建立撸空投的决策框架，避免浪费时间 Gas 到一堆负 EV 项目上。
1. 协议基础 & 叙事
2. 代币经济学
3. 资格标准
4. 成本、时间 & 风险收益
5. 市场环境 & 时机
6. 流动性 & 退出策略

[DeFi Warhol @Defi_Warhol]

https://t.co/RzlKKhGiOG

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

5. 市场环境 & 时机察层面：
大周期：
牛市末端 vs 熊市冰点
牛市末端高 FDV 上线通常更容易砸盘

叙事位置：
是某个叙事的早期（如重质押刚起步时）
还是已经被各种 copycat 挤满？

协议自身时机：
是否快照临近？如果已经过了大部分积累期，再冲进去收益有限
是否已有明显「要发币」的信号？

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

4. 成本、时间 & 风险收益
最坏/基础情景 ROI：粗略算一个期望值

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

3. 资格标准 & Sybil 抵抗
项目采用哪种空投模式？
回顾式（如 Uniswap）：不提前公布规则，事后按历史行为分配
任务式（如 Blur / Arbitrum 等）：提前列任务、积分、等级

Sybil 识别与惩罚：
会不会像 LayerZero 那样一刀砍掉几十万地址？
是否出现过官方点名「女巫名单」？

规则可变性：
项目方有无频繁改规则、临时加限制的历史？

[Cat416 @Cat_416]

2. 代币分配
用户分配比例（>5%?）

FDV（全稀释估值）：
高 FDV + 低流通 = 典型上线即跌的组合

价值捕获机制：
是否有真实收入 /手续费回流
还是纯治理、只负责投票，没有现金流

归属 & 解锁：
解锁节奏是否温和，团队/VC 锁仓是否合理
空投代币是否立刻可交易

分配公平性：
是否存在单一巨鲸拿走大头、是否有上限