“Most great investments begin in discomfort. The things most people feel good about – investments where the underlying premise is widely accepted, the recent performance has been positive, and the outlook is rosy – are unlikely to be available at bargain prices."
-Howard Marks
@PauloMacro Maybe they can sell back the pounds at a premium to utility companies and make up the difference by not mining it themselves? Being the most trusted western uranium supplier seems to be in their favor if they have to buy pounds in the market.
@SFarringtonBKC It’s wild how sentiment shifted. Just a month ago considered left for dead and had all the elements of a contrarian play.
Seems like a “when, not “if” thesis and is playing out now!
@FordWealth@contrarian8888 any idea what the $SBSW run up is from? Gold hitting new highs as they get a chunk of their revenue from their old mines? Platinum price is still depressed, palladium somewhat rising
2025 Outlook: Semisubs $ODL.OL $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $NOL.OL
Link in Bio. Free.
Summary: Semisubs are generally designed for more harsh environments such as the Norwegian Continental Shelf, whereas drillships most often work in more benign conditions in the Golden Triangle (US GoM, LatAM and West Africa). Many differences exist amongst semisubs, notably including eligibility to work in Norway.
The largest market for semisubs, Norway, was viewed as a mature market during the last newbuild cycle 10+ years ago. Accordingly, fewer newbuild semisub orders were made than drillships which foresaw more growth in Brazil and West Africa at the time. As we head into 2025, the Norwegian semisub market is healthy with strong utilization and recent dayrate prints in the mid-$400k’s to low-$500k’s. Semisub eligibility in Norway is a good club to be in but has premium dues (SPS) every five years. Semisubs without eligibility to work in Norway come in different shapes and sizes but are more likely to be idle and earning discounted dayrates due to weaker option value.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate published research in 2024 stating Norway’s offshore discoveries over the last 20 years are valued at 3x the costs incurred on a NPV basis. Norway generally does not have headline discoveries, although benefits from a high quantity of smaller discoveries to support lower cost infrastructure-led capex often cited with ~$35/boe breakevens. Exploration drilling is trending positively and is likely to continue in coming years based on Norwegian E&P public commentary.
H/T @EivindEnd and recommended follow
New release for that 2025 pump !!
https://t.co/YaxRohi9D6
-Favorite new exercise. Parallette pushups, for bigger arms 💪🏼
-Best book. “The Wit & Wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew,” longest serving PM 🇸🇬
-Podcast. How I Built This: Athletic Brewing Company
@HowIBuiltThis
For the first time since I launched my blog, I’m not doing a year-end review (compliance kills everything😩😩), but if you follow my book, you know 2024 was a difficult one.
Instead, of a review, I tried to give my roadmap going forward…👇👇
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