Niph𓅓

Energy ⚛️ - mathématiques - géopolitique - jeux vidéo - Finance - Football - F1 - échecs

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@CRUDEOIL231 So the price could go between 50 to 100 🤣 very nice estimate.

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@pokemondealsuk It’s German TCG…

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@Osint613 Yeah so basically given the name of the source it’s most likely a fake news.

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@thetect0nic @tleilax___ is it bad ?

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@CRUDEOIL231 and even if we don’t know exactly the oil reserve that they have, they can clearly stay on these low levels of import for quite some time.

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@CRUDEOIL231 Totaly agreed, it is either all in or fold. But he always find a way to communicate his own narrative...

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@CRUDEOIL231 Ridiculous

[Niph𓅓 @CauchyEpsilon]

@pokemondealsuk No restock from Argos ?

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved?

Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly.

First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market.

ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery.

EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract.

Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined.

Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior).

CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation.

DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets.

Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit.

This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes.

A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations.

If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price.

The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms:

1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index

ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index.

The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract.

Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130.

Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price.

2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism)

If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism.

Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position.

The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated.

3) Forced Short Covering

Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside.

Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration.

They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date.

This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market.

Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches.

#oott #iran

[Roan @RohOnChain]

This is the EXACT 12-step methodology Institutional quant desks use to win every single trade.

Bookmark & run it through your stack or just pass it directly to your AI coding agent. Most people never reach this layer in their entire lifetime.

Full breakdown in article below.

[darkzodchi @zodchiii]

> use Claude Code for 3 months
> manually fix mistakes every day
> manually make sure claude did what you asked for
> no hooks
> discover hooks exist
> 10 minutes of setup
> all of this routine is now automatic
> never working same again

[hoeem @hooeem]

POV: you spend $4000 on personal trainers every year and now you see this.

[Supersocks @iamsupersocks]

Microsoft vient de transformer Office en système d’exploitation pour agents IA.

Ça s’appelle Copilot Cowork. Et c’est un tournant.

Copilot n’utilise plus un seul modèle.

C’est du multi-LLM : GPT d’OpenAI, Claude d’Anthropic, et d’autres. Le système choisit le meilleur modèle selon la tâche.

Claude Sonnet et Opus sont maintenant intégrés à côté de GPT. Pas à la place. Ensemble.

Mais le vrai sujet c’est pas quel modèle tourne dessous.

C’est ce que ça change pour toi au bureau.

Jusqu’ici pour utiliser l’IA au travail t’avais 3 options :
→ Tu payes Manus ou Claude de ta poche. Jusqu’à 200€/mois en NDF. Ton manager comprend pas et parle de confidentialité des données.
→ Tu installes OpenClaw. Gratuit, open source, puissant. Mais faut être dev et convaincre l’IT et y plugger un modèle.
→ Tu fais rien.

Maintenant ? 30$/mois. Intégré à l’abo M365 Copilot. Zéro install. Zéro NDF à défendre. C’est dans ton Outlook, ton Teams, ton Excel. Déjà là.

Et la direction est claire : des agents qui exécutent, pas juste qui répondent.

Copilot peut déjà résumer tes mails, préparer des slides, analyser des fichiers, planifier des réunions. La vision Cowork c’est d’aller plus loin : des chaînes de tâches complètes en arrière-plan, avec validation à chaque étape.

On n’y est pas encore totalement. C’est en preview via le programme Frontier.

Mais la direction produit est posée.

Regardez ce qui se passe vraiment sous le capot :
→ Excel devient un moteur de calcul pour agents
→ Outlook devient une base de données relationnelle
→ Teams devient l’interface collaborative
→ PowerPoint devient un générateur de communication
→ Copilot devient l’orchestrateur de tout ça

400M+ d’utilisateurs M365. 360M d’actifs sur Teams. 93% du Fortune 100.

Cette base va recevoir un agent IA intégré dans son bureau. Pas une app à installer. Pas un site à ouvrir. Un bouton en plus dans l’outil qu’ils utilisent déjà chaque jour.

La plupart des gens ne connaissent que ChatGPT ou copilote.

Le jour où ton collègue fera en 10 minutes ce qui te prend 2 heures, ce sera pas parce qu’il est plus malin. C’est parce qu’il aura activé un truc que t’as même pas remarqué.

Préparez les discussions à la machine à café. ☕

[witcheer @witcheer]

https://t.co/CYqPTytV7g

[EBellumat @erasmolbj]

Switch 1 was never the problem.

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

https://t.co/z4kQwYt7EA

[Claude @claudeai]

New in Cowork: scheduled tasks.

Claude can now complete recurring tasks at specific times automatically: a morning brief, weekly spreadsheet updates, Friday team presentations.

[Perplexity @perplexity_ai]

Introducing Perplexity Computer.

Computer unifies every current AI capability into one system.

It can research, design, code, deploy, and manage any project end-to-end.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

People giving OpenClaw root access to their entire life