Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish

Análises Macroeconômica e Geopolítica. 🚫 Política partidária nesse perfil.

Melhore as suas finanças pessoais com a Somas:

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Acompanhe o que estou fazendo nos mercados por aqui:

https://t.co/TXCgkwE9PH

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Exatamente. A crise bancária está longe do fim.

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

SVB and First Republic are NOT anomalies.

There are hundreds of billions of dollars of deposits missing from the banking system.

$2 TRILLION in unrealized losses on securities.

The crisis is just getting started.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Oi @Felippe_Hermes -> essa thread explica bem pq QE não é inflacionário.

Dps me diga se entendeu.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

All they told you about money printing is wrong.

Let's dig into how money creation really works.

A thread.

1/

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Governments and commercial banks print real-economy money.

Central Banks print financial-sector money.

Let's precisely define the two forms of money.

4/

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Concordo.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Sell in May and go away will sound very reasonable in 2023.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

A falta de dólares é latente.

Essa crise ainda não terminou.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

One week later and there is still a 55b draw on FIMA repo. Some foreign banks some where still has emergency dollar needs.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Ótimo fio.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

There are a lot of headlines going around about countries moving away from the U.S. Dollar.

Over the last 25 years, the U.S. Dollar's use for reserves globally is down from 72% to 59%.

Here are all the recent events summarized and what it means going forward (a thread):

1/13

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

"Corte de pessoal" já está sendo mais falado que "falta de pessoal" nos earnings calls.

Sinais por todos os lados.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Companies mentioning ''job cuts'' more often than ''labor shortage'' in recent earnings calls.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Os imóveis comerciais nos EUA já estão no radar de mtos. Possível fonte de dor de cabeça em breve.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Commercial real estate has been recently slaughtered, as investors grapple with:

- Low occupancy rates

- High leverage & refinancing costs

- Potential credit crunch due to regional banks being big CRE lenders

CMBS is a big credit asset class - put it on your watch list

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Desaceleração.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

PPI -0.1% M/M, Exp. 0.3%
PPI 4.6% Y/Y, Exp. 5.4%

PPI Core 0.0% M/M, Exp. 0.4%
PPI Core 4.4% Y/Y, Exp. 5.2%

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Mercado forçando a mão para cima do FED. Em breve os ruídos de queda dos juros se tornarão mais evidentes.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

2Y 72bps below Fed Funds. It's over

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

👀

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

Most people don't realize how crucial Silicon Valley Bank is.

Billions of dollars in venture debt. Untold amounts of warrants and convertible notes in early-stage firms.

If SVB fails, this could be the Lehman moment for the startup world.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Isso termina bem? Creio que não.

[Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq]

A quick reminder... we're seeing the most aggressive rate hike cycle in a very..... long time

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Portfolio manager at one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and he specializes in real estate:

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Alguém aqui faz trades pela eToro?

Se positivo, manda sua @ lá e seguirei.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Ótimo 🧵

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Over the last month, the bond market has been sending important messages.

A thread.

1/

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

Worth repeating: the lowest unemployment on record in the US (modern estimates) came in June 1953.

The recession of '53/'54 started the very next month.

The unemployment rate is TERRIBLE as a cyclical indicator. So is payroll data. Beer is better.

https://t.co/OwSoPinzSE

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

Juros para financiamento imobiliário nos EUA batendo 7,1% ao ano.

Uma parcela para uma casa de U$500k que antes era de U$2,1k agora é de U$3,4k.

O mercado imobiliário Americano ajudou a puxar boa parte do crescimento econômico dos últimos anos.

👀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

JUST IN: Average 30-year mortgage interest rate hits 7.1%, the first move above 7.0% since October 2022.

The average payment on a $500,000 mortgage:

- May 2021: $2,100

- NOW: $3,400

Mortgage payments are up 61% in under 2 years.

How can this end well?

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

O Atila está bastante pessimista.

Isso não é bom. A taxa de acerto dele é alta.

[Análises Econômicas - E. Cavendish @CavendishTS]

🎯🎯🎯

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Recap of 2023 in macro and markets.

The Fed will keep rates over 5% until it kills inflation, your job, the housing market and the economy.