Cazz Crypto

running up new accounts to big boys

[Cazz Crypto @CazzCrypto]

An amazing last 30 days - Some solid plays with $sei and $near can't believe these numbers #btc #leverage #gcrypto

[Cazz Crypto @CazzCrypto]

This is progressing nicely

[Yarchi @undefinedKi]

https://t.co/7UE3XA7Lzk

[Roan @RohOnChain]

https://t.co/q9SBesYjPW

[Mark Thompson @METhompson72]

All I can say is China produces +80% of the World’s #tungsten and this is more important than rare earths as it is unsubstitutable in machining and drilling.
Automotive, aerospace, manufacturing, defence: EVERYTHING.

Every time you drill a hole or cut metal tungsten is there.

China has won the commodities trade war already because useless Western politicians did not see what was happening. For 40 years.

I own EQR Resources $EQR and Tungsten West $TUN.
Buckle up!

[Zaheer @zaheerebtikar]

When the market turns like this, there’s usually a pretty straightforward playbook for the aftermath.

1) Market bleeds out and MMs are offline and start refilling by first taking out big spot and perp arbs on assets.

2) Once exchanges and API feeds are back online, market makers and big traders start biting on big orders to bring the market back to equilibrium.

This is met with liquidation orders being processed. Liquidation orders are processed at the top of the exchange order queue so it’s very juicy to pick off if you have balance sheet.

Given the size of this liquidation (~$25-$40bn) it will take a while to chew through this.

3) Once dealers fill long they will start unwinding spot and perp when the market is back to equilibrium. This is when the market hits a local maxima and the Dalai Lama chart starts hitting.

Some assets that have tighter supply will look better than others.

4) Dealers unwind over the next 24-72 hours depending on the liquidations and the market absorption. This is generally harder on weekends because no ETFs.

5) Market finds a natural floor and ceiling and starts a new anchor

Note: this is assuming that the market’s headline risk has mostly subsided. In the case this isn’t true, there is a lot more room for pain depending on leverage ratios.

This is a trader’s market for the time being.

Good luck and good night 💤

[Doug Colkitt @0xdoug]

1/ Since a lot of people are waking up to see their perps positions closed and wondering what the hell “Auto-Deleveraging” means, here’s a quick and dirty primer.

What is ADL? How does it work? And why does it exist?

[Connor Bates @ConnorJBates_]

Meme Stocks

Stocks that are heavily mentioned on social media and have high retail buying as well as high hedge fund shorting.

$ONDS $QUBT $IREN $LAC $MU $CRWV $NEXT $HOOD $SNAP $ASTS $TD $RGTI $BLSH $RDDT $APLD $BITF $AMD $CRCL $BROS $META

Source: JPM

[mon @moninvestor]

$UAMY China has moved to tighten export controls on several key rare earth elements and magnet technologies tied to defense and semiconductor industries.

In April, Beijing introduced licensing rules on seven rare earth elements and permanent magnets. Last week, it expanded those restrictions to include five more elements. These new rules require export licenses even when trace amounts of Chinese-origin rare earths are involved, creating additional friction in global supply chains.

Antimony is a separate critical mineral used in defense, semiconductors and batteries. China currently dominates global antimony production and processing. If Beijing continues restricting the export of critical materials, it increases the strategic importance of securing domestic antimony supply. UAMY is one of the few North American sources of this mineral and holds Department of Defense approval to supply antimony for munitions and other defense applications.

China’s export controls increase the vulnerability of U.S. supply chains and raise the importance of domestic producers as the United States works to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled critical minerals.

My write-up coming tomorrow.

[Nick Lawson @lawse]

Morgan Stanley has just launched its National Security (MSXXNSEC) index.

ASP Isotopes holds a 1.6% weighting as does Lightbridge. Both positioned it as mid tier components among the nuclear and #uranium group. This inclusion signals recognition of both company’s role in the national security and isotope supply chain narrative

Also included are Energy Fuels USA RareEarths, UEC, MP Materials

Hence the rally of 25% for $ASPI today

[InvestmentGuru @InvestmentGuru_]

My Concentration in This Market

BTC Miners & Data Centers
$IREN $CLSK $CIFR $BITF $HIVE $BTBT $MARA

AI Infrastructure
$NBIS $APLD $CRWV

Quantum Computing
$IONQ $RGTI $ARQQ $CCCX $BTQ

Nuclear Energy
$OKLO $SMR $LEU $LTBR

Aerospace & Defence
$RKLB $ASTS $KTOS

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths
$MP $CRML $USAR $TMC

Green Energy & Battery Tech
$QS $EOSE

Biotech & Health Innovation
$ABCL $PRME $RXRX

Other Key Plays
$ONDS $BULL $GLXY $BMNR $OPEN

[Samurai Meltup @samuraix]

hyperliquid leaderboard sorted by highest 24h LOSS

[The Dealmaker @harboreric]

Missed Centrus Energy?

Looking for a potential stock with 10x returns?

Consider a little-known, but proven company from Australia

Silex Systems

This company's technology can change the game in Uranium Enrichment and Quantum Computing

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

Slowdown? Nah…

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

TRUMP SET TO SPEND $1T ON US MILITARY BY 2026.

Here's where to look:

Drones | $DPRO, $TXT, $ZENA, $JOBY, $ACHR, $RCAT, $OUST, $KULR, $AVAV, $KTOS

Cyber & AI | $PLTR, $CACI, $BAH

Defense | $LMT, $RTX, $NOC

Space & Satellite | $NOC, $BA, $LHX, $SPIR

Naval | $HII, $GD

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

Here's some of my favorite drone stocks:

1. Textron | $TXT: Develops unmanned aircraft systems for military use and trades for less than 1x NTM sales.
2. Draganfly | $DPRO: Commercial drone company growing revenues at 132% over the next 18 months.
3. ZenaTech | $ZENA: Building enterprise software, hardware, and drone systems running as a Drone-as-a-Service for 7x NTM sales.
4. Ondas | $ONDS: Split into Ondas Networks and Ondas Autonomous Systems, they're growing revenues at 150%.
5. KULR Technology Group | $KULR: KULR are branching into the drone space through battery systems. Very attractively valued at 5x NTM sales for an estimated 78% growth.

[Whale Watch by Moby @whalewatchalert]

A $michi whale just bought $4.2K of $nub at $15.69M MC 🐳

https://t.co/9hVba4KZW4

[trap_zack @ZackEiseman]

ICYMI O/N

MACRO:

Risk off after US government funding lapsed after the White House and lawmakers failed to reach a spending deal, triggering a shutdown that is expected to halt some federal services and put hundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough. For the duration of the shutdown, the Labor Department is expected to pause the release of economic data—likely including Friday's jobs report. (WSJ)

The White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to WSJ sources. A White House official praised Antoni and said the president will soon nominate a new candidate to lead BLS. (WSJ)

Fed's Logan said the U.S. labor market likely needs to weaken further for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target, as prices are rising even faster without factoring in the impact of new import tariffs. Logan urged caution in making further interest rate cuts, while being bullish on the economy but hawkish about persistent inflation risks. (RTRS)

The large S&P 500 quarterly collar position held by the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund ETF (JHEQX) was reset late in the day on Tuesday, with 35,600 lots of Dec. 31 6330/5340 put spreads bought vs selling 7000 calls. (BBG)

USTR Jamieson Greer said he expects President Trump to sign more trade deals with countries in Southeast Asia during a trip later this year, without specifying the trading partners close to finalizing agreements. (BBG)

Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing from David Perdue, the US ambassador to that country. (BBG)

Confidence among big Japanese manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter and firms maintained their upbeat spending plans, the BoJ's Tankan survey showed, building confidence towards an October rate hike. The index for big manufacturers rose slightly less than expected, although that was offset by a strong capex sub reading. (RTRS)

Japan's manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace in six months in September, with sharper falls in output and new orders, according to S&P's final PMI reading, which was revised slightly higher to 48.5 from the flash reading of 48.4. (RTRS)

Japan's trade negotiator Akazawa said he plans to make the $550 billion investment vehicle, a key pillar of the Japan-US trade deal, function in ways that won’t affect foreign exchange. He said the vehicle will utilize loans from the foreign exchange special account, and generally use what Japan holds already in dollar terms. (BBG)

Shinjiro Koizumi, the top contender to become Japan's next premier, said it was important for the government and central bank to share a common understanding on the direction of economic policy. (Nikkei)

The chief of The Democratic Party for the People, a small but influential Japanese political party, said he wouldn’t immediately join a coalition with the ruling party after its new leader is elected on Saturday. Said he wants to see whether the LDP's new leader holds up a previously proffered promise to cut gasoline taxes and raise the ceiling for tax-free income. (RTRS)

Japan's far-right Sanseito party has set up an international arm to court Trump allies such as Steve Bannon and like-minded groups in Europe, betting that global conservative recognition will help it shake up staid Japanese politics, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)

China's new home prices rose at a slower pace in September, traditionally a peak buying month, while resale home prices fell again, as the market struggled to find its footing despite a raft of support measures, a China Index Academy survey showed. (RTRS)

Russian companies' plans to tap China's vast bond market for low-cost funding are proving to be a non-starter as Chinese banks and investors steer clear of them on concerns about Western sanctions, according to Reuters sources.

Taiwan has pushed back on a US request to move chip production stateside to cover half of America’s demand. Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun said that the idea of having the US produce 50% of the semiconductors it needs came from Washington, and Taiwan has never made such a commitment. (BBG) 

UK business confidence fell to its lowest level on record in September, according to an IoD survey of bosses, driven by concerns over soaring costs. Topping the unease were labour costs, with energy prices also weighing on the outlook. (Guardian)

UK house prices grew more than forecast in September, one of the country’s biggest lenders - Nationwide - said, as lower borrowing costs and rising earnings underpinned demand in the face of potential tax rises. (BBG)

The UK is trying to keep the majority of a £5bn bitcoin haul that was originally stolen from investors in China, in what could be a significant windfall for the Treasury. (FT)

Switzerland will face fallout from US tariffs including on pharmaceuticals, starting now and going into 2026, according to Charlotte Mueller, European chief economist at Swiss Re AG, who is not as sanguine as SNB Chair Schlegel. (BBG)

Australian PM Albanese said he was concerned about a report that China's state iron ore buyer had taken steps to pause purchases of iron ore cargoes from miner BHP. (RTRS)

Asian factory-activity is diverging across the region as the full weight of U.S. starts to be felt, reshaping demand and supply dynamics for manufacturers. S&P Global’s latest PMIs showed a broad uptick in output at the end of the third quarter, but also weak spots in exports as trade uncertainty simmers, keeping demand subdued. (WSJ)

South Korea’s exports grew at a faster-than-expected pace in September despite U.S. tariffs, buoyed by solid chip demand and more working days. (WSJ)

The US and South Korea agreed that foreign exchange interventions should be reserved for combating excessive volatility, without targeting exchange rates for competitive purposes, according to a joint statement released on Wednesday. (RTRS)

Companies sitting on large holdings of their own shares are the next target of a South Korean reform campaign that’s already made the nation’s equity market one of the world’s hottest investments. (BBG)

India’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday, while signaling there may be scope to ease in coming months to support an economy taking a hit from US tariffs. (BBG)

India’s oil imports from leading supplier Russia dipped in September, but held at about a third of overall shipments in spite of a US push to curb flows it says are helping to fund Moscow’s war in Ukraine. (BBG)

Oil is forecast to drop into the $50s-a-barrel range in the coming quarters on expectations for “punishing oversupply” as output expands, according to Macquarie Group, which pared back price outlooks. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is nearing a deal to acquire Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical business for about $10 billion, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)

Nike reported a surprise rise in first-quarter revenue and beat expectations for quarterly profit as the sportswear giant rebuilds its presence at wholesalers and invests in fresher products to keep consumers interested. Executives warned the recovery was still a way off. Nike now expects tariffs to cost it about $1.5 billion this year, compared with the $1 billion expected earlier. (RTRS)

Apple says it did nothing wrong in choosing to partner with OpenAI — rather than Elon Musk’s xAI — when it added generative artificial intelligence to its iPhone operating system. Musk’s AI startup and his social media platform X Corp. sued Apple and OpenAI in August, (BBG)

Qualcomm Inc. said a Delaware court dismissed Arm Holdings Plc’s last remaining legal claim against the chipmaker, handing the US company a victory in their long-running dispute. (BBG)

Lithium Americas said on Wednesday that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has taken a 5% stake in the company, along with a separate 5% stake in its Thacker Pass lithium project joint venture with General Motors. (RTRS)

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman secretly visited chip giant TSMC and AI server maker Foxconn on Tuesday to discuss chip production and the Stargate project, according to Asian press, noting Foxconn is Oracle’s biggest AI server supplier. (UDN via @dnystedt)

The FTC is suing Zillow and Redfin, now owned by Rocket Companies, alleging the two real estate advertising platforms made an unlawful pact that suppresses competition. (WSJ)

Nomura Holdings plans to beef up its interest rate and currency trading operations globally, believing increased market volatility will lift demand, a senior executive said to Reuters. (RTRS)

DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):

Japanese Tankan All Big Capex Est (Q3) 12.5% vs. Exp. 11.3% (Prev. 11.5%)
Japanese Tankan Big Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 15.0 (Prev. 13.0)
Japanese Tankan big non-mf outlook DI (Q3) 28.0 vs. Exp. 29.0 (Prev. 27.0)
Japanese Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 12.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 12.0)
Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 34.0 vs. Exp. 34.0 (Prev. 34.0)
Japanese Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 10.0 vs. Exp. 9.0 (Prev. 9.0)
Japanese Tankan All Sm Capex Est (Q3) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -5.6%)
Japanese Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI (Q3) -1.0 vs. Exp. -1.0 (Prev. -2.0)
Japanese Tankan Small Mf Idx (Q3) 1.0 vs. Exp. 2.0 (Prev. 1.0)
Japanese Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 14.0 (Prev. 15.0)
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final SA (Sep) 48.5 (Prev. 48.4)
South Korean Import Growth Prelim (Sep) 8.2% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. -4.1%)
South Korean Export Growth Prelim (Sep) 12.7% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. 1.2%)
South Korean Trade Balance Prelim (Sep) 9.56B vs. Exp. 7.81B
New Zealand Building Consents (Aug) 5.8% (Prev. 5.4%, Rev. 5.3%)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Sep) -13.2 (Prev. -20.9)
Australian AIG Construction Index (Sep) 12.3 (Prev. 1.0)
UK Nationwide House Price MM (Sep) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
UK Nationwide House Price YY (Sep) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.1%)

[Przemek Chojecki | PC @prz_chojecki]

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[Fund.Biotech.CyberSecurity $UMAC $LPTH 🐋 @fundmyfund]

$UMAC $ONDS next investment is in $KOPN via PIPE

Not that familiar with this one.

$SPAI $LPTH $KOPN is the portfolio so far. The other 2 were different structure in terms of the funding I believe. (I know $LPTH was, forgot what $SPAI was)

Eric Brock, Chairman and CEO of Ondas Holdings, commented: "Ondas develops autonomous aerial and ground robotics platforms for mission-critical defense and security markets, where every ounce of size, weight, and power matters. Kopin’s advanced optical display solutions are proven to deliver the performance, durability, and cost efficiency demanded by next-generation security systems. By investing in Kopin, we are not only supporting a supply chain partner but also unlocking opportunities to co-develop integrated solutions that align tightly with our long-term strategic roadmap."

Allan Evans, the CEO of Unusual Machines said, “Fat Shark goggles used to exclusively use Kopin panels. FPV was built on this partnership and the more than 100,000 display modules shipped annually across our range of headsets. Unusual Machines is investing in Kopin to drive made in the USA production of next generation products with the intent of rekindling this partnership to onshore and scale FPV headset production.”

Revenue past 2 years sort of flattish

[Fund.Biotech.CyberSecurity $UMAC $LPTH 🐋 @fundmyfund]

$LPTH

$32Mish legacy biz
+$51M backlog to be recognized in fiscal 2026 (of which they are 1/4 of the way thru the year)

$83M FY 26 revenue (which ends in Jun 26, not Dec 26)

Can quibble and say legacy business falls off some, can quibble and say there are still 9 months MOAR to add to backlog that hits in 26.

Let's say $83M is ok. Throw a 10 price to sales. (usually companies growing 100% year over year will get higher than 10 price to sales but even at that) $830M market cap.

Divide by 45M shares (assuming no big dilute)

$18.44

Let's say they dilute by 10% 5M: 50M

$16.60

The stock is sub $7 as we speak.

Oh and that's with no Quadstar (Stinger). Which fairly enough won't be a fiscal 2026 story but a fiscal 2027 boom IF Lockheed wins (that is the call option on the company, not a necessary item for the story to work)

https://t.co/We3abbhhrj

CUAS "is just getting started"

# of camera on southern (and northern!!) border from big beautiful bill more than anticipated by a factor of 3.

Looks like a shoebox stock....

[FLB @flb_xyz]

Every perp dex airdrop you can farm

• Pacifica
• Lighter
• Extended
• Variational
• BasedOneX
• Hibachi
• Paradex
• Avantis
• Aster
• Perennial
• Ostium
• Vest
• Reya
• EdgeX
• SunPerps
• Dexari
• MassDotMoney
• Ranger
• DefX
• Bulktrade
• VOOI
• BSX
• Ostrich