Peter Cecchini

Axonic Capital DOR. Realist. Boxer. Formerly a lawyer, defense consultant, HF manager and Cantor's chief market strategist and derivatives head. (aka The Suit).

[Jennifer Sey @JenniferSey]

Amazing conversation with @MegynKellyShow about the stifling of dissent, free speech, and how kids have been harmed during the last 2 years. Thank you for having me! Very grateful.

Top Exec Resigns, Turns Down $1 Million to Speak Freely on COVID Hypo... https://t.co/SXaFEq1j63

[Peter Cecchini @CecchiniPeter]

@michaelsantoli Tend to agree on local low. The ViX futures curve inverted Friday; sometimes that indicates capitulation. There were other oversold signals too. HOWEVER, think its time to sell rallies now Mike...

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

Nothing says "unhealthy" like a leadership reversal within a day of the high. Last time we saw more new lows than highs within a day of a 5-year high, with at least 30% of stocks below their 200-DMA, was 9/20/18 just before the Q4 swoon. The two before that were 2007 and 2000.

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

“Thirty-seven ships were anchored awaiting berth space outside the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, as of late Sunday, the most since early February.”

U.S. Container-Ship Bottleneck Lurches Near Its February Record https://t.co/RLyLDnXbEd

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

Fed chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference at the end of the meeting on Wednesday evening.

"We expect Jay Powell to reiterate that the tapering discussion is underway, but that it’s too soon to reveal a specific date."

https://t.co/dLSCBHg4gn

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

@EconguyRosie This is how inflation becomes embedded, David, not evenly and all at once, but as a rolling series of “shocks” across different goods and services.

[Michael Santoli @michaelsantoli]

This is a log-scale chart starting around the the low that followed a near-20% drop in late 2018. Annualized S&P gain since end of 2018 now almost 25%. Not outrageous - it's a bull market after all - yet clearly running against the pre-Covid crash rally trend line.

[Peter Cecchini @CecchiniPeter]

Lumber prices dropped for a 9th straight week amid slowing DIY spending. Even with the pullback in prices, lumber is still up ~70% from mid-2019. Inflation kills demand... then prices fall. That's why inflation is almost always transitory. #inflation
https://t.co/U1cHYWLhbs

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

The most important data point in today’s jobs report was not the headline but rather the contraction in the workweek and the repeated decline in real wages. Look out for a sharp weakening in Q3 GDP growth and likely beyond. Treasuries have sniffed this out ahead of everyone else.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

U.S. wages are picking up more than in the recent past, but still not enough to keep up with inflation. https://t.co/EwVZaouhfr

[Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach]

For 5 quarters now the state of the US economy by conventional analysis has been indecipherable due to all the government/Fed “emergency” measures. Seems there is no “emergency” any more, but will these measures end as planned? It’s the question of the year w/ huge implications.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

U.S. households added $13.5 trillion in wealth last year, the biggest increase in records going back three decades. More than 70% of the increase went to the top 20% of income earners. About a third went to the top 1%. https://t.co/JWuKOuj4aV

[Peter Cecchini @CecchiniPeter]

@michaelsantoli A multibank system was needed because a single bank system like in Germany would have created fear of a single bank monopoly. Warburg a German banker and Fed architect was particularly aware of this. Backdrop was the anti monopoly legislation of the Progressive Era.

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Buried on page B15 of the WSJ is the article that everyone wants to be well hidden but actually should be the front-cover story: https://t.co/pNUs5rNlzV

[Peter Cecchini @CecchiniPeter]

@lisaabramowicz1 Helps to explain rates action... bond vigilantes are dead. Its all about the Fed's reaction function now. Amazing to have equities tantrum but not rates. Jerry, equities next?

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Rolling 60d correlation between 10y Treasury yield & S&P 500 in negative territory & near lowest since mid-2000s; coincides with higher CPI, which has happened in past (although we didn’t have high inflation in mid-90s when correlation was negative)

[Peter Cecchini @CecchiniPeter]

This is a terrific piece by @lisaabramowicz1. $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus in the U.S. alone. Moral hazard anyone?

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Up to $12.3 trillion in stimulus has effectively killed off the U.S. default cycle. The more pertinent question for markets perhaps isn't whether we're in a bubble, but rather what the consequences are of an era of free-flowing credit. https://t.co/eoQtlkxKZB

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

More on fiscal backfire

“This apparent labor shortage persists, it will have huge implications for the economy in 2021 & beyond. It could act as a brake on growth & cause unnecessary business failures, long lines at remaining businesses, & rising prices” https://t.co/Rcx2LTZaj5

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

There are so many interesting stories out there about various shortages and bottlenecks in the face of intense demand. Just a totally fresh and unfamilar environment for so many players.

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

We’re at 90% probability of a rate hike. If proven to be true, this would mark a first time the market strong arms the Fed to tighten.

@Quillintel
@SoberLook