Wilson

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@TheMoonDojo 现在有机会大反弹吗？ 好像不行

[𝙂𝙐𝙊𝙂𝙐𝙊🌟🌟 @guoguoX520]

原油超预期走强
68抄底的仓位已经全部卖飞了
继续耐心等待70附近的回踩
年末或许有机会一飞冲天

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@FinanceLancelot look like invalid. 90 soon

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@FinanceLancelot now look like invalid

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@nasosoasos NOW look like invalid

[Dr. Kyle Corbett @BigPipN]

#Oil bulls regained control!

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

oh my god

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"One bubble after another"

Great chart from Morgan Stanley

[熹米周期轮动🌐 @ximihoo1]

当市场注意力被 #美股 占据的时候，原油在悄悄筑底，酝酿下一次爆涨📈

我从3月美伊战争开始，原油长期坚定看到 $150-$200，立场从来没有动摇过！

技术方面看 附图1、附图2 ，非投资建议

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@cohamizu1 Gap filled

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Just so everyone knows, this has never happened in the oil market.

Cracks are back to the highs, and crude timespreads are in contango.

Never happened.

Not in 08, not in 18, 19, 20, 22, never.

Never ever happened.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

VW 2008 short squeeze vs today's crude oil 👻

[熹米周期轮动🌐 @ximihoo1]

100年来最大的IPO警告‼️
这个模式从未失灵

1926 → Goldman Sachas
1972 → Intel
1999 → AT&T Wireless
2026 → SpaceX

每个宏伟IPO都恰好出现在主要市场泡沫的顶峰，然后标普500暴跌📉

→ 1926崩盘：86%
→ 1972崩盘：53%
→ 1999崩盘：51%
→ 2026崩盘：？ %

这次SpaceX将是AI泡沫破裂前的最后一次流动性事件吗？历史会重复吗？你怎么看？

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

This chart isn't only about Brent oil futures short positions close to all-time highs when the oil supply shock is about to strike - it also tells you that the run to ~120$ oil price in the first days of March was a short squeeze

⚠️March was a preview of what's going to happen

[Beyond-Charting 📈 @Beyond_Charting]

#oil $uso Sentiment and short interest are at extremes. The masses on Fintwit are about get their collective heads handed to them...imho of course 😉

[Viking 🇸🇪🇨🇿🇺🇦🐱 @VikingEW]

I continue to be skeptical about this MoU "deal" as I have a hard time to believe that the IRI regime and IRGC intend to play anything else than its own game.
Nevertheless, I think this is the chart to focus on, with a near term bearish count - breaking out of the triangle to the downside.

However, the crucial low of 10 March has to break and that hasn't happened yet but probably will if Friday's signing passes without too much drama.

I changed feed in this chart, to better show the gap between 67.28 and 71.02 (these values may vary in other feeds, where more solid support kicks in.

Both this and the 10 March level also has historical structural support that will make them more of a struggle to pass.

However, note that once the 10 March low is passed, the ABC pattern with the triangle in the middle is technically complete and price can turn at any time on markets direction. I see the main window for this to happen within the next 60 days, but probably sooner rather than later.

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@cohamizu1 going to fill the gap up 67-68

[Wilson @Chan5387]

@tmgpi filled the below gap 67-68 only up

[月亮牌手 | The Moon Dojo🇭🇰（赤马红羊版） @TheMoonDojo]

新闻显示，美国的战略石油储备（SPR）已经被特朗普释放到了43年来的最低点（仅剩法定容量的三分之一）。

之前油价没涨上天，是因为老美在疯狂“放血”压油价。但现在地主家也没余粮了，如果中东继续打，油价必将彻底失控，进而引爆美国国内的恶性通胀。特朗普在物理层面（抛售储备油）已经无计可施。

既然物理砸盘没子弹了，怎么办？用假新闻搞“预期砸盘”。这14条看似丧权辱国的框架，根本不是为了真和平去签的，而是一张随时可以撕毁的“空头支票”。特朗普故意放出这个风声，就是为了利用金融市场的“预期心理”，让华尔街的量化机器和散户疯狂做空原油。不花一滴战略储备油，靠一张废纸就把油价砸下来了。

特朗普需要时间。可能是为了大选，可能是为了拖延通胀爆发的时间节点，也可能是为了趁低价偷偷补一点石油库存。这个“备忘录”就是他的缓兵之计。

So现在的原油下跌，根本不是因为真正的和平降临，而是因为：

1. 散户被“假协议”骗了，在疯狂做空。
2. 美国政府在刻意引导这种情绪，以掩盖自己战略石油储备见底的窘境。

一旦市场醒悟过来，发现这只是一份没有约束力的“备忘录”，或者6月19日根本签不下来实质性条款，原油又会面临极其恐怖的报复性暴涨。因为到时候，美国连最后压制油价的武器（SPR）都没有了。这绝对是今年最大的“多头送钱局”和“空头火葬场”。

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

History is Repeating.

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵