Chappy Charts

TA. Call me a charting 🐳

[Andrew Thrasher, CMT @AndrewThrasher]

An equal weighting of the Mag 7 stocks shows a failed breakout with a bearish momentum divergence as the group falls under the 20-day moving average.

Early, but worth watching as the mega cap stocks begin to struggle.
$NVDA $GOOGL $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $META $AMZN

[Donovan Jackson @TheDonInvesting]

Year of the catch up trade. $FXI

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Best SPX stock in the past year is the worst one today

$HOOD -9%

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

All the Russell 2k needs to work is:
-Steady economic reacceleration AND
-Persistently falling interest rates.

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

$GOOGL Gemini continues to gain market share, now at 13.7% up from 12.9% a month ago and this is even before we got Gemini 3.0. (which will come out before end of year).

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

GOLD

Retail flows were a key sign that the gold rally needed to take a breather before the next leg.

Recall how muted GLD inflows were 18 months ago as gold was breaking out compared to the maniacal inflows recently.

Charts 3.7.2024 @3F_Research vs. 10.16.2025 reports

[Chappy Charts @ChappyCharts]

@MBTA_CR_Alerts 🤔15-30 at least

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I think this is superb advice. Worth a careful read:

Michael Milken – Lessons on Money, Family, and Success

(Forum for Family Asset Management, Milken Conference, Mexico City –
paraphrased notes)

Spend time with your kids — you’ll pay for it (for better or worse) either now or
later.

Think about how you measure meaning and success in your children and
grandchildren. Give them purpose.

For children raised in very successful households, it’s often hard to emulate
success — especially financial success.

Most successful people are too busy to see their kids and grandkids. That
absence shows up later in life.

The center of success is the ability to dream.

Real success is the freedom to live your life.

The financial media is obsessed with lists. Forbes today is mostly about
ranking wealth by dollars.

There are countless stories of wealthy people who never had a good day with
their kids.

You’re only as happy as your least happy child — think about that often.
He shared a story about a wealthy Chicago family whose fortune was divided into 1/13th shares after one heir demanded his part. That decision ended up dividing the entire family.

Be careful not to do something that provides financially but destroys the
family.

The most important thing to teach children is financial literacy.

The greatest failure among wealthy families is not providing financial literacy to their members.
Example: an extremely wealthy Latin American family where the
great-grandfather is still alive — his mindset is completely different from that of his great-grandchildren.

In Asia, inheritance traditionally went only to men — that has changed in
recent decades.

Recommended reading: Economic Mobility Program – Invest in America.

Example: Apollo bought the Venetian Hotel and gave all 7,000 employees
stock. They paid a dividend the first year through a recap — everyone saw it as a “Christmas bonus.” The next year, when there was no dividend,
employees were upset. No one had explained the difference between a
dividend and a bonus.

The biggest mistake over the last 50 years has been financial illiteracy — not understanding the business or the source of wealth. Families and employees both need to learn this.

Best example of a united family: an Austrian family that’s 11 generations old. They own a resort used only by the five branches of the family. Ownership
rotates every three years. To be invited when your branch isn’t in charge, you
must get along with the others.

No matter how much you build or earn, what truly matters in the long run is
your relationship with your kids and grandkids.

Define what success means to you — it’s what makes you happy.
Entrepreneurs don’t just build companies; they can build nations or religions.

One of the most successful entrepreneurs in history is Lee Kuan Yew.

It’s not about how many things you own.

If you’ve never been responsible for making payroll, your view of the world is very different.

Hug your kids and grandkids. Let everyone find their own path.

Children growing up around success feel enormous pressure. Remind them
how valuable they are.

Let kids make mistakes when the stakes are low — not high.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

The good news is that earnings are doing the heavy lifting as we enter year 4 of this bull market.  Following Friday’s decline, the P/E ratio is only up 1% year-over-year, while earnings are up 11%.  This is in line with my expectation at the beginning of the year that after two years of substantial P/E expansion, earnings would become the dominant driver of returns in 2025.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

You might see this once or twice in a lifetime. We have an investment bank - Jefferies $JEF down 10% and Nasdaq 100 NDX on the highs, just wow.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

$XME Metals and Mining ETF

Up all but 1 week since Q2 started. Oh dear. @StockCharts

[George Coyle @gfc4]

"Every night at about 4:30PM I get 272 charts. They cover just about every group in the stock market, every commodity, every currency cross I'm interested in, every fixed income market around the world...daily, weekly, and monthly [charts]...When I make an investment decision...sometimes, believe it or not, the idea comes from the charts, but I will never invest just on a chart. But if I really like the fundamental thesis and the chart stinks, I won't do it...I always assume that the market may know something and I've always had a great deal of respect for the market. So, I'd say 75% to 80% of my ideas come from fundamental and then they're verified by the chart. But I've also found ideas from the charts and then discovered the fundamentals."

[Gannon Breslin @gannonbreslin]

You’re not bullish enough on Build-A-Bear Workshop $BBW

[Chappy Charts @ChappyCharts]

@PhilStacey_SN @sjpathletics From 2006–2014, SJP put together one of the most dominant public/private high-school runs you’ll find anywhere in the Northeast, with state-meet records, undefeated seasons-easily worthy of any teams of the century conversation. If the SalemNews list left them off, that’s a miss

[Chappy Charts @ChappyCharts]

@PhilStacey_SN @sjpathletics No swimming and diving teams? Undefeated for years! You are a bum

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Are $U not entertained? 😤

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

Underrated life advice: Potential is nothing without execution. When you're young, everyone cares about your potential. You get accustomed to focusing on it. But as you get older, no one cares about your potential—just your delivery against it.

[John Ewing @johnewing]

NCAA Tournament betting recap

Favorites: 28-24 ATS

Favorites of 6 or more pts: 19-9 (66%) ATS

Teams getting +50% of bets: 22-28 ATS

Best conference: Big Ten 12-4 ATS

UNDERs: 28-24

Betting $100 on every underdog: -$1,665

Data per @Bet_Labs

[Brian Shannon, CMT @alphatrends]

In a market that consistently sells off, yesterday's relative strength has the potential to be today's disaster.

[Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA @WillieDelwiche]

S&P 500 is below the Nov & Oct lows and the Aug & Jul highs.

Those levels (as well as the 200-day average) are now resistance.

This index is not behaving like a bull market is intact.