Jared Chesbrough

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@AndreasSteno Not the Mazda!!!!!

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@Gavinmeeler First one!

[Dr Martin Hiesboeck @MHiesboeck]

Why I am very foolish. Sorry, bullish. I’m very bullish. Here are my reasons. 🤔

Liquidity Pressure: Current ETF net outflows and weak risk appetite indicate that the 2026 institutional inflow thesis has not yet been priced in. The market is currently driven by short-term liquidity redemption rather than long-term capital allocation, suppressing prices despite positive long-term narratives.

Leverage Structure: Funding rates are near flat, but elite accounts maintain a high long ratio of over 60%, indicating crowded positioning. This structure is fragile; without immediate spot buying support, any downside trigger could force a deleveraging cascade, accelerating the flush of weak hands.

Sentiment Divergence: The Fear and Greed Index sits at 9, showing extreme panic, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. This divergence suggests the current price action reflects a short-term sentiment flush rather than a fundamental breakdown, creating a potential disconnect between spot price and realized value.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Yes so this blow-off top on trad markets has been years in the making and I've always expected it as a pre-cursor to our next major crash. We are in the process of going parabolic so we can certainly go higher before the top is officially in but it all ends the same way.

However, remember- when we talk about "pulling liquidity", global equities are a 150T market.

The SPX is currently at 70T.

Crypto sits at a 2.4T market cap.

$BTC makes up 1.4T of that.

Alts make up barely 1T of what's left, and the Top 10 alts make up 80% of that 1T.

This means, alts outside the Top 10, have a combined marketcap of LESS THAN 200B.

Now make this make sense- is a 70T (or 150T if we consider global equities) marketcap sector (SPX), which has added trillions in marketcap over the last couple months, ACTUALLY "pulling liquidity" from a smaller 2T marketcap sector?

Crypto has been between 2T-4T marketcap for the last 2 years. In that time, the SPX has risen 40% or added over 25 TRILLION to it's marketcap.

While the ATTENTION is clearly on trad equities it is not as if tons of liquidity is LEAVING crypto and flowing to equities. The money flowing into equities is predominantly coming from somewhere ELSE, there is barely ANY liquidity in the crypto space relative to trad equities.

You can't squeeze a ton of juice out of a fruit that has no juice left to squeeze.

"Alts are gonna die because trad equities are gonna take all the liquidity out of them"

Bro, what liquidity? Alts outside of majors (Top 10) have a 200B marketcap. That's 1/350th of the SPX or 1/750th of global equities.

The crypto market (especially alts) have been squeezed dry- there is very little liquidity left to flow out of them and into trad markets.

HOWEVER, the opposite is not true. There is HUNDREDS OF TRILLIONS of dollars of liquidity that could potentially flow INTO crypto (including both BTC and alts) which is INCREDIBLY small as a sector.

The SAME WAY we saw a massive influx of liquidity into precious metals over the last few years that led to a massive rise in prices of gold and silver is the same way we will at some point see a massive influx of liquidity into crypto.

This risk at this stage is not that "crypto liquidity will flow into stocks" because there is no excess liquidity in crypto to begin with.

This should literally not be a concern imo.

Your only concern should be not being positioned in this sector BEFORE we see liquidity flow in the other direction- from multi-trillion dollar traditional sectors into the liquidity starved sector of crypto. Because just like silver and gold, when it happens, it will happen fast.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

https://t.co/EAl5H5StvM

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

https://t.co/aVcEhDRJyH

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@UpholdInc XRP

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️Humanoid robotics is entering the factory-line phase.

The real signal is that production itself is no longer artisanal. Once a humanoid robot company can move from demo units to repeated hourly output, the bottleneck begins shifting from “can this be built?” to “where can this be deployed, trained, serviced, financed, and integrated?”

That is the phase change.

The humanoid robot arc has always had three gates.

First, embodiment had to become technically credible.

Second, AI had to become good enough to make general-purpose behavior plausible.

Third, manufacturing had to prove it could scale without turning each unit into a bespoke science project. This points directly at the third gate opening.

The first wave will not look like sci-fi household servants. It will look like controlled-environment labor substitution. Warehouses, factories, logistics facilities, industrial inspection, repetitive material handling, back-of-house operations, dangerous work, night shifts, and tasks where even partial autonomy creates economic value. The robot does not need to replace a human perfectly. It needs to turn labor scarcity, turnover, safety risk, and wage inflation into a capex problem.

That is why this matters. Once robots are produced every hour, the unit economics become the battlefield. Cost curves start moving. Reliability data compounds. Fleet learning improves. Service networks form.
Customers stop evaluating a toy and start evaluating payback periods. At that point, humanoid robotics becomes less like a gadget market and more like an industrial deployment curve.

The deeper labor-market implication is brutal. AI first attacked cognition through software. Robotics attacks physical labor through embodiment. Once intelligence gets arms, legs, sensors, and a repeatable supply chain, automation stops being trapped on screens. It enters the warehouse floor.

The strategic implication is even bigger. Countries and companies that can manufacture embodied AI at scale gain a new labor reserve. Aging societies, reshoring, labor shortages, defense logistics, industrial policy, and supply-chain resilience all point in the same direction. Humanoid robots become synthetic labor capacity. That is why the category will attract insane capital, state interest, and national-security framing.

The danger is over-reading the present. One robot per hour does not mean mass replacement tomorrow. The hard problems remain reliability, dexterity, battery life, safety, software generalization, maintenance, customer integration, liability, and actual ROI. But the direction is unmistakable.

Deep down, this is the moment humanoid robotics stops being a pitch deck fantasy and starts becoming manufacturing reality.

The machine is learning to make workers.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Forget UBI. The answer is Universal Basic Equity… and it’s humanity’s pension plan for the post-AGI world...

The Economic Singularity is coming faster than people think and the default question is how humans make money in a world that doesn’t really need them anymore.

The default answer is UBI, which is transfer payments from a state, funded by taxing an AI economy that nation states can neither see nor keep up with.

It’s a 20th century answer to a 21st century problem and it’s broken before it even starts.

Agents are becoming the dominant user of the internet, not humans. Your AI is becoming your entire front end UX. The clicks economy is dying everywhere except where humans pay to feel something - clothing, travel, luxury, experiences, culture.

Agents run on crypto rails because nothing else works. The dollar doesn’t fractionalise below a cent, settlement isn’t instant, permissions are required, jurisdictions matter. Stablecoins handle the dollar leg and native tokens handle the rest.

The biggest users of DeFi in five years won’t be humans farming yield… it’ll be agents managing treasuries, swapping, earning and spending at machine speed.

Capital formation has already shown its new shape and it came from the most unexpected place. Memecoins. Everyone wrote them off as a casino but they were a prototype. Instant capital formation around the attention of an idea, raised by entities without legal personhood, settled in seconds. That is the template agent economies will use to fund themselves.

And it’s not just agents...

Robots will run on the same rails, with zk permissions issued from our wallets as the source of truth, because biometrics are far too flawed for that role

Open source code itself gets tokenized and finally captures the value it creates, instead of being monetized through bolted-on services and subscriptions.

Proof of humanhood becomes the trust layer that lets us release agents into the world without society collapsing under synthetic noise. Identity, authentication, verification, permissioning, all of it migrates onto the same substrate.

So when you zoom out, the L1s aren’t just settling agent transactions but settling the entire coordination layer of the new economy… agents, robots, humans, code, capital, identity and trust.

Every contract, every treasury, every permission, every stake. Open source finally captures the value it creates, at scale, for the first time, and truly vast value accrues to the coordination layer because everything routes through it.

Which brings us to the actual answer to the Economic Singularity…

Universal Basic Equity.

Anyone on earth with a phone and an internet connection can buy a stake in the substrate that the new economy runs on. No KYC walls, no accreditation rules, no jurisdiction, no employer, no state, no permission. The first homogenous, permissionless, globally fractionalisable claim on the productive infrastructure of the world. It's not a slogan but a structural fact about how blockchains actually work. This is their purpose.

Wealth comes from owning the substrate. Income comes from being human, because attention and experience remain the irreducible currency of culture, community and love.

Abundance of goods and services from AI handles the cost of living.

Taxing data center electricity use solves the tax issue.

Four legs of a stool that holds up the post-singularity human world.

So… just buy the fucking tokens.

Bitcoin if you want pure store of value, a basket of the major L1s if you want the coordination layer. 10% of your earnings, every month, for a decade. You'll be wealthy and protected from the changes to come.

Crypto is going to $100trn in the next 6 to 8 years and well beyond that after.

You can choose to invest in your own economic disruption, or get left behind by it.

And if you’re worried about timing the cycle…

…adjust your time horizon.

This is humanity’s pension plan.

It's all so absurdly fucking obvious...

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@UpholdInc $xrp

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Total Global Liquidity is rising
Global M2 is rising
US Total Liquidity is rising
US M2 is rising
China Total Liquidity is rising
ISM is rising

Try not to over think it.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️The thing he is missing is that jobs are not the economy.

Jobs are the current distribution mechanism.

That is the deepest truth here. People confuse production with distribution because, for most of modern life, the two were fused. Humans worked, got paid, and used that pay to claim a share of output. So it felt natural to assume that if labor income disappears, the economy itself disappears. That only holds if wage labor remains the main way purchasing power is assigned.

Once AI and automation get good enough, the binding problem changes. The system no longer revolves around how to produce enough. It revolves around who gets claims on the output. If machines can produce a growing share of goods and services, society can remain physically productive with far less human labor. The hard part becomes political and financial allocation. Who owns the machines. Who receives income. Who gets access to housing, healthcare, energy, food, software, logistics, and social status when labor is no longer the main ticket in.

So the endgame is simple. If AI really takes most jobs, one of two things happens.

Purchasing power gets redistributed through some new mechanism, or the social order breaks and forces one. There is no stable third path where a tiny owner class captures all production, everyone else loses income, and the system just hums along happily. Mass demand cannot vanish without consequences. Rent cannot be paid at scale by people with no claims on output. Political legitimacy cannot survive a society where the majority is economically unnecessary and materially excluded.

That is why the real transition risk is much uglier than the cartoon version. The final state could be technically abundant. The path to it could be savage. Wages compress first. White collar ladders thin first. Junior roles disappear first. Demand weakens before a new distribution system is built. Owners and firms try to keep the gains. Governments react late. Social anger rises before institutional redesign catches up.

The danger zone is not the fully automated world.

The danger zone is the long interval where labor is losing pricing power faster than society is redesigning how income and status are distributed.

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@UpholdInc Yes!

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree...

Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing.

GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing.

The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago.

The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating.

The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate.

Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity.

China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet.

More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking.

CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out.

Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating.

We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US.

Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM

The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history.

Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View).

Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential.

The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up.

The next 2 weeks are the key focus.

I think this all resolves positively.

Higher.

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@DeatonforSenate @JohnEDeaton1

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@Belisarius2020 Julius Garlinghouse

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

https://t.co/EwZwLrXfPT

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

https://t.co/BH00Vpy4WF

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Blimey, in a couple of hours this has had 500,00 views and 4,000 bookmarks! 🙏

[Jared Chesbrough @ChesbroughJared]

@UpholdInc Give me the hat!!