Chicago Guy

I'm a fossil. I care about fundamentals, but adapting to our new algo overlords.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@DeItaone What is that? More talking and empty threats that you can back away from to pump the stock market?

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@Midnight_Captl Well said. There will be someone that makes the models much more efficient in all ways: power, CPU, memory usage etc.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@LogicalThesis Yep, and we'll gap up again and the semis will crank another 5% higher. All very healthy

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@zerohedge So if the deal is signed, for real this time, is that bearish? Trump can't jack the market with the announcement of a possible deal anymore.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@Midnight_Captl Or he thought he could leave Google and get more money, and he failed. Now he is as desperate as OpenAI and this was his next best choice.

[Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com @DonDurrett]

Warsh today: The Committee will deliver price stability.

Wall Street's reaction: He's a hawk!

My reaction: He's lying. He's a dove. Price stability is not his priority. Market stability is his priority. 🧐

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@adamtaggart You own precious metals for the long term hedge against fiat currencies. The short term trading reaction to interest rates and thus currency, doesn't change the thesis. Sovereign debt is out of control and a monetary reset is inevitable

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@blondesnmoney @agnostoxxx They will make a special dispensation if you have a desk in the family.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@DeItaone This is like the 40th time there's been a possible deal. The markets go up every time and I still don't buy stocks. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 40 times... I'm just an idiot

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@DeItaone They're probably saying the same thing about Trump

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@blondesnmoney "anyone"

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@blondesnmoney I'm going to buy some SCPX in case any has fat fingers.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@RentYourStocks I traded in my Acura MDX (which I did like) for an Audi Allroad. I have never liked a car more than this Allroad.

[fred hickey @htsfhickey]

Gotta love the headline below: Cramer stating gold is currently "bad money" as it's getting dumped by investors in order to buy the SpaceX IPO. Gold is never bad money - it's the only "real" money that lasts over time. It can be overbought and at risk of a correction, as it was earlier this year. Hulbert out with an article bashing gold (as he typically does near bottoms). Gold-related headlines have changed dramatically from rampant exuberance earlier this year.

I haven't been tweeting much about gold because, as HTS subscribers know, late last year into early this year I had slashed my gold miner positions as far as I could "and still be able to sleep at night." That left me with a lot of cash (in short-term Treasuries) that I plan to put to work - eventually.

With gold down $1,500+ from its top and miners on average 40% lower, it's likely that a lot of the damage has been done. Gold & miner 200-day moving averages were broken - sending all the technicians to the sidelines. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to just 14% bullish yesterday. Gold futures contracts open interest (speculators) has plummeted to levels lower than even at the late-2015 to early 2016 gold bottom (at $1,050). Daily futures contract trading volumes have dried up (to less than 20% of the level at the top). The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) has fallen to rock bottom 0% (the 100% reading in January concerned me). CEF trading at a 4.8% discount (high). Gold Relative Strength Index (RSI) down to just 22.6% - lowest since Oct 2023 (great time to buy gold - see chart below). Didn't like that 90% reading earlier this year. None of these indicators guarantee a rally - but they are around levels where rallies can occur.

Though gold still is facing a lot of headwinds (closed Hormuz pressuring international buyers, dollar strength, seasonality etc.) and gold could certainly keep falling, it is greatly oversold in the short-term and may at least experience a rebound.

Long-term, all the bullish catalysts are still in place. China has sped up its gold buying at these lower levels. De-dollarization is a long-term trend. So is dollar debasement. Miner's balance sheets are terrific and generating huge margins and cash flows at these lower levels (P/E ratios are very low).

Warsh's first FOMC presser next week could be a bullish catalyst if he has to defend (sound dovish) not raising rates with his theory the FOMC can look through the rising inflation ("transitory"??) due to productivity increases from an AI boom (likely a false hope). Some governors are pushing for hikes. Getting past tomorrow's SpaceX IPO could be another catalyst.

Already, we're approaching or at negative real rates which is bullish for gold. Doesn't matter if interest rates rise - if inflation is even higher - as it was throughout the 1970s great gold bull market.

Therefore, I've started buying a few of my favorite gold miners gingerly - including this morning.

https://t.co/9oDVrWVfWH

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@epictrades1 Oh, so it sounds like gold is a real currency in a crisis? Interesting

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@ronrule FTI Consulting $FCN Always good to own a bankruptcy firm into the SHTF

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@bouncycoconut @ShadowofEzra I know very few Jews who follow the old testament

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index drops to zero. Yes, you read that correctly. Historical 👀🔥
Total capitulation.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

U.S. officials trying to determine if Iran drone strike on U.S. helicopter was intentional, according to Axios.
Axios must have bought some 0DTE calls.

[Chicago Guy @ChicagoGuy2020]

@BobEUnlimited That is surprising. Looking at the holdings, I would say the big difference is that growth owned $MSFT at 9% and value owns $MU and $INTC