Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫

Research: #Geopolitics, #Türkiye, #Conflict, #Negotiation, & #NI • (re)Tweets ≠ endorsement • Centrist. FunFact: I used to fly planes.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

When our world around us seems to be getting worse, all we have to do is look up and realise that He isn't falling so we won't either! 🙏🏻

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

to those EU members who have their own anti-EU movements that can are at the gates of governance = leaving the bloc is not a flip-flop decision.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

It's almost as if infighting over Brexit (and leaving the bloc) was a catastrophic decision that cannot be wished away overnight. The EU got burned and they don't want to be caught out like that when there are still the bad actors in UK politics. Sending a message of permanence

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

Exclusive: Andy Burnham has been forced to largely shelve his ambitions for a big EU reset after Brussels said it’s more interested in pursuing closer ties with Canada

Ursula von der Leyen today asked Canada to become the EU’s first “associate member.” It remains to be seen what that means in practice but it confirms Canada is well ahead of the UK in improving relations

British officials shrugged off the announcement. One said they couldn’t judge what it meant without any details. Another downplayed it as a political move rather than one with any substance so far

Still, figures across Labour are disappointed after coming to the realisation that the EU, and especially the European Commission under VDL, has no interest in giving them better terms than the Tories achieved

Burnham’s ministers have immediately become bogged down in the same difficult negotiations on food standards and a youth mobility program that were taking place under Keir Starmer. A UK-EU summit has been delayed amid the lack of progress

UK officials believe there’s no prospect of a significant improvement in trading terms unless Labour drops its red lines on the single market and customs union, which won’t happen before an election

Some in London were surprised to read EU officials suggesting the bloc is more interested in closer relations with Canada than Britain. One official described that as needlessly divisive when western allies should be pulling together against Russia

There is still deep disappointment at VDL’s decision to effectively block the UK from SAFE, which Britain views as a bad mistake on her part, a view shared in some European capitals

In any case, the UK sees the E3 - Britain, France and Germany - as a better vehicle to lead on the biggest issues Europe faces, like Ukraine. While the EU remains slow and divided, the E3 has moved ahead as the major player in Europe on security, officials say

https://t.co/z8K9dq2Zd6

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

Bribing to win? National debt is already sky high under Trump 1.0 and 2.0 (Biden’s wasn’t great either).

This man has one goal, to sink as low as he can by 2028.

[BBC News (UK) @BBCNews]

Trump pledges $5,000 to every American if Republicans win November elections https://t.co/Dlu0MKoxgz

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

@Itwitius

[G. F. Allen @AuthorGFAllen]

WHAT BOOK IS SO GOOD THAT AFTER READING IT, YOU BUY EVERY OTHER BOOK PUBLISHED BY ITS AUTHOR.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

This would be quite something:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The EU and Canada are set to announce a massive "all encompassing" partnership which will range from trade to security after President Trump's latest tariffs, per Bloomberg.

Details include:

1. Canada and the EU seek to build a new alliance to "offset the global power politics dominated by the US and China"

2. The partnership is expected to be announced on September 16th

3. Short of EU membership, the EU and Canada want to "get as close as legally possible"

4. Canada was also the first country outside of the EU to join the EU’s $175 billion military procurement fund

The trade war and AI are redefining global power dynamics.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

Inflection point in German politics:

[Politics Global @PolitlcsGlobal]

🚨🇩🇪 NEW: Exit polls predict that the AfD will win the Saxony-Anhalt state election

It would mark the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since the Nazi era

Exit Poll Results:
🔵 AfD: 44.5%
⚫️ CDU: 18.5%
🟣 LINKE: 9.5%
🟢 GRÜNE: 9.0%
🔴 SPD: 8.0%
🟠 BSW: 5.0%
🟡 FDP: 2.0%

[@dwnews]

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

A very significant event and pleased this was intercepted. The day these cowards are caught and their operations dismantled will be a great day.

[Sky News @SkyNews]

BREAKING: An "extremely significant" car bomb has been intercepted by Irish police near the Northern Ireland border.

A female driver in her 20s has been arrested.

https://t.co/wDPf0C9fWw

📺 Sky 501 and YouTube

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

Ain't happenin' captain.

[Politics Global @PolitlcsGlobal]

🚨🇦🇷 NEW: Javier Milei says “we through the diplomatic route are getting closer to the recovery of the Malvinas Islands”

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

When I visited Victoria, BC last year there were major fires in the Olympia Mountains (Washington State) that made the sky purple. No one complained, but rather thought about the firefighters - this is just idiotic. https://t.co/ufvEEWwlbS

[NewsWire @NewsWire_US]

Sen. Bernie Moreno Introduces Bill to Sanction Canada for Failing to Contain Wildfire Smoke Hitting Ohio

[Agustln Eme @agustineme]

Si yo voy a llorar, ustedes también 🖤💔

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

I’m sorry you had to witness that @CDP1882. It’s not right nor do I associate it to the NI I grew up in, however it is your network that has helped amplify the voices of the far right. GBN is certainly not the cause of this, but it absolutely contains nothing of the solution.

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'I saw things tonight I didn't think I would see in the United Kingdom'.

@CDP1882 compares scenes of rioting in Belfast to a 'war-torn country', after seeing families urgently pack their belongings into their cars to escape the violence.

[a rare photo of sean connery signed by roger moore @steamedhamms]

you can basically disregard any commentator who doesn’t understand the below

[Robert Peston @Peston]

Today’s elections could be the most consequential of my lifetime, outside of a general election.

Here’s why.

First, if they are as catastrophic for Labour as some polls indicate, they may send Labour MPs into paroxysms of despair, and set in train a challenge to Starmer’s leadership of the party and country.

That would lead to governmental paralysis and turmoil in bond markets - even if in the end Starmer survives.

Buckle up.

Second, if Reform does as well as expected in English local elections and in Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections, at that point many would see them as the real representatives of right-wing Britain.

That would be a challenge to the status and authority of the Conservative Party, for all that Kemi Badenoch is widely seen to be performing effectively as their leader and they remain the official opposition in parliament.

Talk of Reform eventually absorbing the Tory Party, before the next general election, would only intensify.

Third nationalist parties are like to be in charge in the parliaments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: the SNP and Plaid are almost certain to form new respective governments in Scotland and Wales, and Sinn Fein is already the senior partner in Northern Ireland’s assembly.

This doesn’t mean that formal break up of the UK is imminent. But if you believe as I do that Newton’s first law applies to politics, it means the integrity of the UK would be much less secure than it was.

Fourth all the polls indicate the LibDems are treading water in terms of national vote share, and that disillusionment with the government and Tories is disproportionately benefiting Reform and the Greens.

Given that the LibDems, or Liberals as they once were, would in the past have benefited from the ailing popularity of the two big parties, questions will be asked about whether Ed Davey is the most appropriate leader for these chaotic times - for all that his party hoovered up more seats in the last election than for decades.

By contrast and fifth, the Greens have surged thanks in large part to the positive charismatic force of one person, its leader Zack Polanski. Which implies the party has a lot of policy work to do to consolidate its position and be taken seriously as a potential party of government.

Sixth, the big story will be that there are now at least seven parties on the British mainland - Reform, the Greens, the LibDems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Conservatives - with legitimate claims to have meaningful national, regional or local vote shares.

So today could be the definitive end of Britain’s 250 years of two party politics. And because this degree of fragmentation is so new, it brings enormous uncertainties and dangers.

It means, for example, that - under our first-past-the-post electoral system - a party could win the votes of just one-in-six of us and yet have an absolute majority of MPs.

For the majority to be subject to rule by the representatives of such a small minority would be a duck that does not quack democracy.

It would be a crisis infecting our most important institution, parliament itself. As I say, today’s polls matter.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

What a day. The lasting geopolitical ripples from these last few hours will shape our world for years to come.

How does an isolationist president align his base with international raid-style armed action?

How does Iran navigate its next steps? What role does the diaspora play?

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Iranian state TV has now officially announced the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN TEHRAN. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF MISSILES.

[Chris White 🇺🇦🇭🇰🇦🇫 @ChrisJBWhite]

@BigJetTVLIVE Get well soon Jerry.

[Sophia Gaston @sophgaston]

I know Westminster became addicted to blood lust and leadership spills during the Brexit and pandemic psychodramas, but this madness has to end. It is inflicting damage on our international reputation and capability. It is disrupting the hard work of growth and security. Enough.

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

Been trying to get a sense of mood in govt tonight in wake of Trump’s chaos to climbdown. Of course it’s very welcome and no doubt No 10 will see this as a vindication of the approach by PM and partners, who stood firm. Starmer didn’t massively dial up the rhetoric but was clearly robust - as robust on Trump as I’ve ever seen him and made it very clear, both publicly and through back-channels UK was not going to back down.

Key figures at Davos - Rachel Reeves, Peter Kyle, Yvette Cooper and top officials - have been working on it behind scenes with US Administration as well as Nato Sec Gen Mark Rutte, who deserves credit for his handling of Trump. Think too No 10 will also feel vindicated that faced off calls from other political parties - be it Farage saying earlier today at Davos the world would be a “better more secure place” if America took over Greenland or Ed Davey calling on the PM to burn relations with the US.

Think where Trump has caused a problem for Starmer is re-opening the row over the Chagos Islands. While Starmer managed to swerve that criticism today by accusing Badenoch of jumping on a bandwagon set off by Trump to undermine the UK on Greenland, it has once again raised questions over that deal - and once the transatlantic crisis abates, as it appears it might this evening, that could become a difficulty for the PM once more. There is also the question of what this deal actually looks like and might require from Nato and from the UK as a key member. But for now, allies have a least bought themselves some time. Danish PM in UK to meet Starmer tomorrow, so we should get a bit more then

[Visioner @visionergeo]

🇺🇸🇬🇱🇬🇧 #BREAKING - According to Sky News, in a phone call on Sunday, Donald Trump admitted to Keir Starmer that he might have had inaccurate information about the motives for deploying a European military contingent in Greenland.

The US president's stated position could become the basis for de-escalating the tensions surrounding Greenland.

One of the main reasons for Trump's threat of tariffs related to Greenland was the deployment of a small number of military personnel on the island at the end of last week.

Keir Starmer tried to convince Donald Trump that these military movements serve to strengthen US security interests and are not actions directed against America.

See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo

[PanEuropeanMovement @EuropeanPan]

"Haha, what's he gonna do about it?"

Well, for instance, leave NATO alongside most European countries, thus removing the backbone of the American Empire. Macron is not so much threatening the US, but rather warning them that they will destroy their own global hegemony if they proceed with this madness.