Chris Varvares

VP and Co-head of US Economics at IHS Markit. Opinions own. RT/MT not endorsements. Co-founder of Macroeconomic Advisers. Credit: Painting by Bradley Stevens

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@policytensor ??? Manufacturing jobs started turning down in December 2019...fell though March 2020 then plunged in April due to the pandemic. Started rebound in May. Employment has flattened last 9 months, but as of October, mfg. emp. is up 764 thous. or 6.3% from Jan 2021.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

Not to make too much of it, but the nascent rise in continuing claims may indicate that unemployed workers are having more difficulty finding new work. It could be the leading edge of the necessary easing in labor-market tightness and bears watching.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

The potential for both a UAW strike and a government shutdown pose risks to the near-term outlook for growth, and provide more reason for the Fed to pause in September. The November meeting is not that far away.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@Austan_Goolsbee Grandmother on my father's side visited Chicago in the 1920's and it so reminded her of her home in Greece she insisted on moving the family there.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@NT_CTannenbaum @nabe_econ Beautiful! Congrats and thank you!

[NABE @nabe_econ]

Thanks to @HowardEcon and our panelists for partnering with us earlier this week to provide insights on economic career paths to this year's AEA Summer Program Scholars! @AEAInformation #careersineconomics #EconTwitter

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

The Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy!
So well deserved!

[NABE @nabe_econ]

Happening now: Secretary Janet Yellen accepts the NABE Paul A. Volcker Award

#NABE2023

[NABE @nabe_econ]

Happening now: Secretary Janet Yellen accepts the NABE Paul A. Volcker Award

#NABE2023

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

Financial markets seem to be betting on credit growth weakening materially, because current financial conditions, traditionally measured, are supportive of more growth of output and employment, and hence higher inflation than would leave the Fed standing idly by.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@crampell Insightful!

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

If the US economy is slipping into recession, nobody told the labor market!

[Daniel Yergin @DanielYergin]

#Putin attacks Russia oil #pricecap by quoting free market #MiltonFriedman: “if you want to create a shortage of tomatoes” put on a price cap and “instantly you have a tomato shortage. It’s the same with oil and gas.” My @wsj column ⬇️ (1/2)
https://t.co/mswsW2k7cF

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@MarkWarner Reform it? Get rid of it! You’ve already agreed to spend the money and raise whatever revenue. The deficit is simple subtraction and debt is simple addition.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

Congratulations Ben! A direct hit by Dr. Herzon!
Our final tracking estimate for Q3 was ... 2.6%!
Atlanta Fed was at 3.1% (October 26). STL Fed was at 1.3% (October 21).

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

@EconomicsRisk @SPGMarketIntel @WSJ High prices require more nominal spending for consumers to get what they want! Real retail sales have faired less well, and will sag as the US enters recession and employment edges lower.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

Not great, but a lot better

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

(continued 5/5)
And you know there all like “Ahhhh…I’ll get this punch bowl out of here.” But, the punch bowl didn’t do it. You got to go turn the gas off.

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

(continued) Like, “Ah, there is too much stimulus, there’s too much demand we got to take this punch bowl away.” So I guess in this analogy, I guess it’s like is everyone wasted because there is actually a gas leak in the kitchen. 4/5

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

(continued) In this case they showed up a little later and everybody is already wasted. So what happens? Austan?
Goolsbee:I still think the whole talking away the punch bowl is fundamentally is about a business cycle that is driven by demand fluctuations. 3/4

[Chris Varvares @ChrisVarvares]

Part of the dialog.
Varvares: That’s a great segue to our next topic, which is what are policy makers to do? I don’t know who this is original to, but you have the proverbial, ‘The Fed shows up just as the party is getting going and takes away the punch bowl.” 2/4