Houdini

AI, thematics, tech, growth, cyclicals and anything else I find interesting. Former multi $bn LO analyst

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@P_Remarks $DUOL bottom in reinvestment, sentiment poor. AI threat is nonsense and will likely be a reasonably material net winner from it in time

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@rubicon59 Ah missed the table. Will take a closer look

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@GHadjia They’ve deprioritised top line this year in favour of DAU/product/LT growth, so MT growth is probably somewhere between this year and prior few years. Still a fair bit of operating leverage left in the biz and they’re a long way from optimising things like price, ad rollout etc

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

I like it as a long. Think the short thesis is massively overblown (AI disruption) and it’s more of a basketing short.. very hard to find people who have done the work who think the short thesis is credible. It’s one of the very few things I like as a moment and agree with you generally

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@ContrarianCurse What’s the fundamental driver for AI? 27 growth guides from Nvidia and Broadcom?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@labubu_trader No mention of open weight models impacting oai/anth Vals and funding ability?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@boy69_phat @DanCricket93 It is but on average it’s a net negative. You lose the long tail of scores where you cash in on being set, easy wickets etc and vice versa . I think stokes was probably the better test batsman but maybe they weren’t that far away and Polly’s probably underrated.. as a neutral

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@rubicon59 Any guesses as to how far we are away from peak earnings? A huge amount has changed (and will continue to) with memory but Is there any way it doesn’t coincide with the top in AI capex?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@KyleSamani @JerryCap Bruh they are sub 2% of dram with no hbm and very very limited in their ability to bring on capacity

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@NoContextCounty This blokes going to play 500 games for England, isn’t he

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

$MRVL +100% since this tweet, and was the chosen one to add to. Not as cheap as it was, sadly

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

Who are the most sensitive/torquiest winners out of Claude’s (Anthropic) growing dominance in a market with a huge TAM? ChatGPT thinks it’s $AVGO, followed by $MRVL, $CRDO and $LITE. No doubt, the AWS supply chain is getting a healthy bid of late..

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@rubicon59 How high does this go? Is there any theory on the ideal amount of memory per gpu at present?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

Lotes $3533.tw, Rambus $RMBS, Aspeed $5274.tw and Montage $6809.hk all seem like smaller, more sensitive names to the CPU story. Any others that I should be looking at?

[Jukan @jukan05]

Another reason I’m watching Delton closely is that the company works closely with Huawei. As DeepSeek’s comments suggest, Huawei’s 950 is expected to enter heavy mass production starting in the second half of this year, right?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

$ARM has 90% ownership by SoftBank and will probably be a huge beneficiary from the CPU boom. Squeeze incoming?

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

@ContrarianCurse CPU’s now as well, surely

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

Accton $2345 is another that looks to be exclusively exposed to Meta and Amazon.. and with a c$33bn market cap, likely has a lot more upside. Its early, but Marvell and Accton are shaping as favourites

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

Who are the most sensitive/torquiest winners out of Claude’s (Anthropic) growing dominance in a market with a huge TAM? ChatGPT thinks it’s $AVGO, followed by $MRVL, $CRDO and $LITE. No doubt, the AWS supply chain is getting a healthy bid of late..

[Houdini @Chrysos079]

$MRVL with that insane strength pre market.