$BTC - What's next?
Bitcoin Midweek Report: Cycle / Macro / TA
1. Cycle context
We are in a bear market until proven otherwise. So for now, we need to treat every bounce as a counter trend rally.
The most probable bounce target - if $75K breaks - is the daily the 200 MA ribbon in the $80K region. If we get that, it would be a textbook short opportunity.
Expecting the bear market bottom likely later this year in the $40K–$50K range (see chart).
Open to change this bias as soon as Bitcoin flips the daily 200 MAs.
2. Macro Situation
The rebound following the cease fire played out as mentioned in various articles I wrote. Now the data is speaking, and it's not telling a hopeful story, supporting the bearish cycle view.
This week's U.S. releases came in uncomfortable. Headline CPI at 0.9% against a 0.7% consensus. And Personal Income printed -0.1% against an expected +0.5%.
This is scarcity inflation and central banks can't hike into a collapsing income environment without breaking the consumer.
Bad for risk assets.
3. Short term price action
High probabilty: Chop and compression in the $70,200–$76,016 range for 5–7 days before a directional decision. Market needs a catalyst or a liquidity sweep to pick a lane.
The scenario that's now off the table: A clean $69K sweep before the $75K test. Price skipped it. If rejection comes here, the next downside target isn't $69K - it's $66K, the bottom of the wedge formation.
Medium probabilty: $75K breaks, CME gap fill and 200 MA test at $80K follows. Clean short setup in that case as mentioned above.
4. Trades
Closed the $GOLD long this morning with a nice profit as mentioned in the Telegram, looking to go long again from lower.
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Un nuovo tentativo degli inviati degli Stati Uniti per proporre un cessate il fuoco all'Iran è stato respinto dalla diplomazia iraniana.
The Guardian sottolinea che oltre all'Oman è stato interpellato l'Egitto ma anche in questo caso l'Iran non ha preso in considerazione la richiesta.
@djnutria57 ti consiglio di cercare il Farmacista Consapevole su FB/YouTube e contattare la segreteria oncologica.
Ti indirizzeranno ad un medico e sono in grado di preparare le formulazioni tramite ricette galeniche.
Don't be fooled, Israel is in worse shape then people think.
About 1/3 of Tel Aviv has been damaged or destroyed.
As far as their military installations are concerned, I'm told many Israeli aircraft's are being flown to Cyprus to avoid being struck.
Israel was not prepared for Iran's response.
Interessante notare che media israeliani e arabi confermano la notizia iraniana che un singolo missile ha colpito il centro elettrico di Beersheba senza essere intercettato.
#Israele Maggiore attacco missilistico iraniano: colpite Tel Aviv, Holon, semi distrutto l'ospedale Soroka a Be’er Sheva, Ramat Gan.
Al solito molto attive le batterie AA israeliane ma sono stati più efficaci questa volta i missili iraniani.
Io lo dico da sempre: per fermare l'immigrazione basterebbe semplicemente fare centri accoglienza nei quartieri dove vivono giornalisti, magistrati e politici.
Nulla più, nulla meno.