Jimmy⚒️

Live Laugh Love Sosa

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

Weighing all the dumbbells at my new gym to make sure they’re not pulling any funny shit

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

New Titans WR Wan'Dale Robinson told Kay Adams’ “Up & Adams” show that he will be wearing No. 4 this season to honor his late friend Rondale Moore.

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

ESPN sources: reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford and the Rams reached agreement today on a one-year, $55 million extension worth up to $60 million with incentives. Stafford now has two years and up to $105 million remaining on his deal with the Rams.

[André @oracles]

Had a Jane Street interview in 2019.

Round 8. Interviewer texts: 'Equinox Brookfield. 6 AM. Bring a calculator you won't use.'

I show up. He's on the StairMaster reading a printout of the CBOE VIX term structure.

Doesn't get off. Nods at the machine next to him.

'You see that guy on the rower? Goldman MD. Comes here every morning at 6:04. Leaves at 6:38. What's the implied vol on his arrival time?'

'I don't know his variance.'

'Sample size of one year, 250 sessions. Standard deviation is 90 seconds. Annualize it.'

I do the math in my head. '90 seconds times sqrt(250). About 24 minutes annualized.'

'Wrong. You annualized like it's a return. Time-of-arrival doesn't compound. It's a Poisson process with drift. The correct answer is his arrival is more punctual than the 6 train. Now price me an option on whether he shows up tomorrow.'

I think for a second. 'If he's been here 250 days in a row, base rate is 99.6%. But you have to adjust for his vacation schedule and probability of injury, call it 96%.'

'Strike?'

'$10 if he shows, $0 if he doesn't.'

'I'll sell you that option for $9.40.'

I think about it. 'No. Expected value is $9.60. You're underpricing by 20 cents.'

'Correct. Now why am I selling it to you?'

I freeze.

'Because I just saw him limp on the way in. You're buying my information for 20 cents. You overpaid.'

We get off the machines. Walk to the smoothie bar. He orders a $19 smoothie, doesn't drink it.

'Last question. The girl behind the counter makes 200 smoothies per morning. She has perfect information on who's actually here and who's faking it. Citadel guys leak their attendance to her every day for the price of a tip. If I gave you $50,000 to set up a market on which Citadel PM gets fired this quarter, what's your bid-ask?'

'Insider trading.'

'Wrong answer. There's no public security. Try again.'

I think. 'I'd quote 8 to 12 percent on any given PM. Spread of 4 points to cover adverse selection. Tighten the spread for PMs I have data on.'

'Where do you get the data?'

'The smoothie girl.'

'Good. How much do you pay her?'

'10% of P&L.'

'Wrong. You pay her a flat $200 a week. If you pay her on P&L she becomes your counterparty. Right now she's your data source. Don't conflate edges.'

He hands me the untouched smoothie.

'Throw this out on Vesey Street, not in the building. The staff knows what gets wasted. Outside, it was consumed. Same smoothie, different signal.'

I do it.

Thursday I get the email.

'Offer rescinded. Your bid-ask on the PM market was too tight. 4 points doesn't cover the tail. The girl is a single point of failure and you didn't price her counterparty risk. Also you held the smoothie in your right hand. Right-handers throw with their right hand. Camera saw the hesitation.'

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@DarkOutFront My bad

[Transfer News Live @DeadlineDayLive]

🚨 The worst transfers in Premier League history, according to ESPN.

1️⃣ Mykhaylo Mudryk – Shakhtar to Chelsea
2️⃣ Antony – Ajax to Man United
3️⃣ Nicolas Pépé – Lille to Arsenal
4️⃣ Ali Dia – Free agent to Southampton
5️⃣ Danny Drinkwater – Leicester to Chelsea
6️⃣ Ricky Álvarez – Inter to Sunderland
7️⃣ Romelu Lukaku – Inter to Chelsea
8️⃣ Jadon Sancho – Dortmund to Man United
9️⃣ Tomas Brolin – Parma to Leeds
🔟 Kalvin Phillips – Leeds to Man City
1️⃣1️⃣ Alexis Sánchez – Arsenal to Man United
1️⃣2️⃣ Bosko Balaban – Dinamo Zagreb to Aston Villa
1️⃣3️⃣ Wesley Fofana – Leicester to Chelsea
1️⃣4️⃣ Steve Marlet – Lyon to Fulham
1️⃣5️⃣ Dani Osvaldo – Roma to Southampton
1️⃣6️⃣ Winston Bogarde – Barcelona to Chelsea
1️⃣7️⃣ Andriy Shevchenko – AC Milan to Chelsea
1️⃣8️⃣ David Bentley – Blackburn to Tottenham
1️⃣9️⃣ Bebe – Vitoria Guimaraes to Man United
2️⃣0️⃣ Andy Carroll – Newcastle to Liverpool
2️⃣1️⃣ Mario Balotelli – AC Milan to Liverpool
2️⃣2️⃣ Rasmus Højlund – Atalanta to Man United
2️⃣3️⃣ Eliaquim Mangala – Porto to Man City
2️⃣4️⃣ Tanguy Ndombele – Lyon to Tottenham
2️⃣5️⃣ Kepa Arrizabalaga – Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea

Do you agree with these rankings?

(📸 @SportBible)

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

So full rn. I wonder how much an Asian foot spa would charge for a belly rub

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@PardonMyTake @BarstoolBigCat

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

Leaving the nice private course as a guest after shooting a 97 and throwing out the score card

[ettingermentum @ettingermentum]

Legendary top five

[Om Patel @om_patel5]

stop spending money on Claude Code.

Chipotle's support bot is free:

[kelly @BoyYeetsWorld]

The bartender sells me their poison (12 beers) and denies me their cure (a 13th beer)

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@WHUFC_News Soucek in the Pablo role

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@FabrizioRomano Probably the bellend on the sideline adding 7 minutes

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@baconlad75

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

A banana and a beer. What's better than that?

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@DarkOutFront Unstoppable in its prime

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

Alen Halilovic is a deep cut

[Luke Evangelist @lukeevangelist_]

Just guys being dudes. Tonight we set out to name 2,000 pro athletes in 2 hours without internet.

Here’s the breakdown:
805 football
290 soccer
267 baseball
258 basketball
139 hockey
81 cricket
60 tennis
25 olympians
23 F1
22 boxers/WWE
21 UFC
6 volleyball
3 swimmers
2 ping pong

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

It should still work that way

[Mak @mak_aura]

Nah 3rd grade was wild.. shawty would leave you cause a dude was faster than you

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

Dad, what was it like to watch Lucas Paqueta play for West Ham?

[Jimmy⚒️ @ChxCaesarWrap]

@CFCUnfiltered @CFCPys @Laus1507 I think Chelsea fans are like addicts at this point