A comment on Bitcoin.
The U.S. government is reopening, and the Treasury’s management of the TGA signals an imminent injection of liquidity into the financial system. Quantitative tightening will soon end, and in my view, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates until the federal funds rate reaches around 2.75 percent. In 2026, the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee will change, Powell will be replaced, effectively ending the era of the Progressive Left Keynesian control of the Fed.
Chair Powell’s policy choices have already produced a housing recession, an outcome the FOMC collectively owns. The combination of overtightened financial conditions, lagging policy response, and reliance on backward-looking indicators has distorted credit availability and weakened one of the economy’s key sectors.
Bitcoin adoption continues to accelerate, supported by pending legislation that promises greater regulatory clarity. Yes, fiat continues to be pumped into the global economy. Nothing has changed.
Bitcoin digital scarcity remains unparalleled, compelling institutional adoption and driving ongoing innovation across Wall Street.
Still, some investors choose to sell Bitcoin precisely as its long-term case strengthens, an enduring example of irrational behavior in markets. “Buy low, sell high” is simple to say but remarkably difficult to execute. Deep liquidity shifts and structural transitions often create opportunities that only appear obvious in hindsight. The Bull run ends when liquidity drys up not when it’s beginning, this has always been the case.
Looking at my girl, not a single thought of the market on her mind.
Stress free.
She smiles, “babe, I saw a cute dog today.”
I laugh softly, “that’s great.”
dear traders waiting on "alt szn":
retail now accounts for 1/3 of US equity market volumes
many mid cap AI supply chain & adjacent names are up 5-10x over the last yr and continue to trade amazingly well
no liqudation cascades, bundling, undiclosed insiders, etc to deal with when trading regulated stocks from your brokerage
retail doesn't currently need our crypto coins and possibly will not anytime soon
suggest trying to get good at trading current market conditions and not rely on q4 of 4th year in 4-yr cycle hopium