Atalantis7

Not Financial Advice

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@Ksidiii PIF, ADIA, or CIC? likely one of the former two?

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

Another great pod from Ethan with @curiouscamilo about launching and running a prop shop in prediction markets

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old.

Camilo Saravia (@curiouscamilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital.

"I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity."

We cover:
- Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society
- Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation
- Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work
- His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal"
- Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok
- Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that
- Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out
- Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute
- Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY"
- The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth
- A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture
- Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution

Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map
(03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity
(04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature
(08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop
(12:43) Where edge actually comes from
(14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day
(17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office
(21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model
(23:51) How to underwrite elite talent
(25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point
(30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time)
(37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate
(44:45) The abundance mindset
(48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital"
(50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet
(51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets
(53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could
(55:49) There's a business behind everything
(01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market
(01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities
(01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start
(01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right
(01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@ivanfioravanti indeed. just need to get those video lengths to min 30 sec so there is no need for stitching

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

i mean… it takes some skill to do a 30x. he had to roll his calls 10-15 times and switch to shorter dte and start juicing margin in june so there was likely some timing skill. no risk management or stop loss though. he’s is still 2-3x up YTD but most ppl trying to use this agressive roll stratgey usually lose it all

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@DannyDayan5 agree. unless the 10Y > 5.5% or oil > 150, the bubble aint in trouble

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@libernovaq @TheShortBear much better. but he earned it

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

New Blog!

The most crowded trade on the Street is starting to crack.

I've been tweeting pieces of this rotation for weeks.

Time to lay out the whole thing.

As always I remain nimble and able to pivot, however this feels like a specific point in time I wanted to talk about in depth.

From the big picture down to actionable trades, what I am currently looking at.

https://t.co/2CaJKG3Ggo

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

2T profit taking so they can buy next week’s SpaceX IPO. LOL absolute carnage

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

$2 Trillion has been ERASED from the U.S. stock market today.

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@Evan_ss6 MSTR back to .com era and BTC to Kapo's target

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

unfortunately BTC has to die to be reborn again. the phoenix will rise when the ponzis collapse

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@darkin_eth who knows friend. we can bounce from here. just not sure who is the marginal buyer anymore

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

agree. just trying to scare the b*tches. it was coopted and i feel going lower is healthy. BTC vol has died over the past year and that was its most desirable feature for many. not a store of value but a speculative asset that offered escape velocity for the ones that traded it well

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@FvckYourHedge still here. doing stonks. was retooling and didn’t have time to post. aslo there is no one here anymore 😢

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@Cheshire_Cap why sell any? isn’t it just a bad precedent as the only bidder in town is now selling. don’t quite get the game theory of selling such a tiny amount and how does it inspire confidence? looking for counter arguments please

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@Arthcola1 @hackertrader what's your point? SBUX had great linear price action from GFC to 2016. after that it's a mess and wouldn't trade it. just moves on earnings

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

Quallamagie on Breakouts: Wide and loose is for losers and tight is for winners. Tight ranges is all you should focus on. h/t @hackertrader

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@Evan_ss6 PURRfect for gamma squeeze

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@nzz_07 @AnotherDataP @hackertrader yes, just trade momentum burst from tight ranges. compression into the 10d or 20d is a plus. but avoid taking positions when price is > 50d sma + 5 * ADR%

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@nzz_07 @AnotherDataP @hackertrader tight tight tight

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

blue is better. tight. even if you bought the breakout from the orange line you could have bought again at the same price with better r:r in the blue triangle a few days later. you want tight so you have an amazing r:r and can size up. hard to size up on break of orange line after 4 green days. where do you put your stop?

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

@AnotherDataP @hackertrader tight ranges can be defined as compression in volatility e.g. in the 90th percentile over past 20 days (you can use different measures of volatility like stdev or ADR%) and drying up in volume (lack of supply/sellers). here's a good example from SNDK