ClaireBear🐻

Humanist, Psychology Graduate, Nerd & Transgender Woman🕊🫂🇦🇺🏳️‍⚧️. Planning to do my Honours and Masters-maybe even a PhD-about Transgender happiness

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@transcalamitas Always ask for your levels. If youre going through the medical system for hormones they WILL hondose you for a year

[Pikaxu_u @Pikaxu_o]

Amanhã farei um sorteio de 60 packs da nova coleção de HS!
Para participar basta curtir e dar RT nesse post.
Obrigado ao @PlayHearthstone pelo código extra!
#HearthstoneBR
Link da live para o sorteio: Pikaxu_u - Twitch

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@wrotator

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@moonkorra Omgg perth oomf. Hii :3

[dr. sigma freud @reyookah]

award-nominated comic i made about a closeted trans girl suffering through the era of 2000s internet (1/4)

[Jenna Taylor ♀️ @JennaJacobin]

🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️

Transphobes love circulating this graphic claiming "trans women are more likely to commit sexual offenses."

We've all seen it, many times over. It's a favorite in their rotation.

However, it's not just misleading; it's statistically incoherent.

First: The entire claim about "males identifying as women" is based on 56 people total. Converting tiny counts like that into "per million" rates massively inflates volatility.

A handful of cases up or down would radically change the numbers. Any competent statistician would flag this as unusable.

Second: This category does not actually measure trans women. It relies on prison administrative labels like "male, identifies as female," often assigned after arrest.

That includes people with no social, legal, or medical transition, and sometimes people claiming an identity post-incarceration. That is not population data.

Third: Prison data does not equal offending rates. Prison populations reflect policing, charging, plea deals, sentencing, and institutional bias. Not how crime occurs in society.

Using incarceration data as a proxy for prevalence is a basic category error.

Fourth: This graphic commits a classic Base-Rate Fallacy.

Comparing 25 million women, 23.5 million men, and 47,000 individuals classified as trans on the same per-million scale introduces distortion.

Rare events become more pronounced when scaled; large populations smooth out variation.

This is why real research uses Confidence Intervals, which are conspicuously absent here.

Fifth: The categories are quietly switched to inflate the results.

"Males (including other trans identities)" is used when it lowers the male rate, but "excluding other trans identities" is used when it raises the trans-coded rate.

That's analytical laundering, not consistency.

Sixth: The visual design itself is propaganda. The dense icon arrays imply mass prevalence while representing rates, not counts, exaggerating a subgroup that amounts to fewer than 60 people.

Lastly, even if the numbers were sound (Which they are not), there's no causal mechanism offered. No theory, no explanation, just "hey, look at the numbers." That isn't evidence; it's prejudice dressed up as data.

This graphic doesn't show that trans women are dangerous.

It shows how small sample sizes, misclassification, post-hoc labelling, and base-rate manipulation can be weaponized to manufacture fear.

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@Mistress_Bites This appeared on my for you page!

[psicochurroz @psicochurroz]

mom found the yaoi

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@Wrograln @_Choco_torta Kn

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

Conditioner... I barely know her

[Juri @lizziedosssssss]

girl... conditioner...

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@Dad2Earthlings @TheInsiderPaper Real?

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@RapunzelASMR @bigmac_mccarthy Just like therapy!

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@RightWingCope The funniest thing is that you know Trump dictated this whole thing while some poor secretary had to type it out

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@boymoderology Eating food is a pretty good way to stop starving

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@SHARKMODER I think they considered that,,,

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@egirlbl00dsport Ive eaten some American snacks and they tasted pretty bad. Hersheys are disgusting, can't believe they're considered good over there

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

How tf did my headcannon get here

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

@SHARKMODER Grindr is discriminating against trans women. I can no longer filter for women or non-binary people. So no more t4t. And I had an acount banned for no reason too d:

[ClaireBear🐻 @ClairePsych2]

My gf is doing this to me tomorrow 😵‍💫