Clausewitzian Piggy | NAFO Guinea Pig Division

A conqueror is always a lover of peace.
-Carl von Clausewitz

Proud #Analyst in #geostrategy, #military and #defence thingies.
#FB #NAFO #Fellas #ff

[Clausewitzian Piggy | NAFO Guinea Pig Division @ClausewitzianP]

@MissUniverse And the official Miss Information is

[MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA]

❗️Russia is preparing Crimea for a possible landing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, — Ukrainian Navy spokesman Pletenchuk

Ukraine has ensured the operation of its own sea corridor, pushed Russian warships away from its coast and adapted to the new era of naval warfare, which is shaped by drones.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

https://t.co/qfWDQEaRHy

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber based in the Belaya air base in Irkutsk, went down and got totally destroyed.

At the moment there is no news what caused the crash or what is the status of the crew. In the past the air base was struck by Ukrainian drones during the Spiderweb operation almost exactly a year ago.

Whatever it was, type Tu-22M3 strategic bombers are frequently the carrier of missile attacks against Ukraine. Seeing one of them going down less than 24h after the Russian attack against the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Monastery is quite extraordinary.

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

La guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 a désormais dépassé la durée de la Première Guerre mondiale et pourrait encore durer plusieurs années.

Voici ce qu’il faut savoir en juin 2026 de ce conflit généralisé aux portes de l’Europe 🇪🇺 qui n'en finit plus.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️

[Bich Tran @BicTranVn]

My paper investigates why the Philippines and Vietnam delayed establishing their cyber commands and explains the seven-year gap between them. https://t.co/W4UbYQXiDL

[Jorge Maestre Vidal @J_MaestreVidal]

🇺🇸 Well... the amendment by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to the FY2027 NDAA for creating a separate Cyber Force military service was defeated by 14-13 vote

The main argument against the New York Democrat’s proposition was that policymakers should wait for the results of a study on feasibility by the NASEM that was included in a previous defense roadmap before moving forward; which is expected to conclude later this year

https://t.co/eeFrLIzHcr

[Denis Laskov 🇮🇱 @it4sec]

Modern satellites, attacks, and defenses: a very detailed intro to satellite cybersecurity. 📡🛰️📊🌍🚨

More details on:
LinkedIn: https://t.co/LMqYxFYPwC
Substack: https://t.co/747BWkRPSO

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

A large swarm of Ukrainian long-range drones struck the strategic oil depot of Russia’s Federal Agency for State Reserves in the Yaroslavl Region this morning

It serves as a key logistics hub supplying Russian military units & has over 60 storage tanks. Massive fires

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, said the campaign has reduced the traffic using the Novorossiya highway - a critical Russian military supply route through occupied southern Ukraine to Crimea - by more than two thirds over the past month...

"We will isolate Crimea in the near future,"...

Brovdi said one of his strategic aims was to force Moscow to ​pull back troops rather than push forward.

"We will create conditions that will make it extremely difficult for any military personnel or those working in the defence industry to remain in Crimea, in the temporarily occupied territories, or use the access routes to them."
https://t.co/qLZh2D5TOV

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

🇨🇳 China claims foreign spies are using “spy turtles and fish” off its shores

China’s Ministry of State Security has stated that foreign intelligence services are using innovative methods to monitor the country’s waters, including the deployment of marine animals, such as turtles and fish, equipped with sensors.

According to Chinese authorities, these “spy animals” can transmit real-time data on water temperature, salinity, currents, and even help map the seabed and track submarine activity.

The ministry has offered rewards to fishermen for discovering and reporting such devices in China’s territorial waters.

[Jorge Maestre Vidal @J_MaestreVidal]

📖 "Two planners sit down for the same joint wargame. The first requests a cyber effect against an adversary logistics node. The adjudicator is a subject matter expert who consults an effects card or, increasingly, an AI-assisted system that generates a probability assessment. He or she marks the node degraded, and the exercise moves on. The operational plan works. The first planner builds her concept of operations around this effect.

Twelve months later, she is in a real planning cell requesting the same category of effect against a comparable target...."

https://t.co/AAcF76v6Um

[Jorge Maestre Vidal @J_MaestreVidal]

🇨🇳so aparently, PRC-owned energy grid companies seem to have their own programs for offensive and defensive cyber capabilities... their personnel, standards-setting, and testing environments are helping to develop offensive tools

https://t.co/kiwidxZOSX

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

"'We have to be prepared ... We must be ready to fight,' Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding, Germany’s army chief, said at the ILA aerospace show in Berlin.

He said that there is broad allied consensus that Russia could attack NATO territory before the end of the decade.

'2029 is not a German timeline. It’s NATO-agreed intelligence,” Freuding said. “All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029.'”
https://t.co/USYRTLNNea

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Ukrainian forces continue to interdict several bridges that support ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian occupation authorities are struggling to address worsening gasoline shortages in occupied Sevastopol, likely due to Ukrainian long- and intermediate-range strikes against Russian logistics and energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian forces appear to have achieved a tactical drone overmatch on the battlefield and are intensifying middle-range strike campaign, reportedly driving higher Russian casualties on the battlefield amidst declining recruitment rates.

Russia is establishing new and expanding existing military bases along its northern border with NATO likely in order to support future Russian force projection capabilities against NATO. ISW assesses that Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct ground operations in the near-term, however.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to fabricate evidence as part of its cognitive warfare effort to support false claims of advance.

Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate- to long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on June 10 and 11. Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 221 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

En l'espace d'un an, la position ukrainienne 🇺🇦 s'est sensiblement améliorée

Il y a un an, l'Ukraine faisait face à de très nombreux problèmes structurels qui ont été largement réduits voire retournés contre la Russie : (▪️situation en 2025/✅réussite/❌échec)

▪️Poussée russe rapide sur le front de Velika Novosilka/Houlialpole tout au long de l'année 2025.
✅L'offensive a été en grande partie stoppée, à part à Houlialpole ou l'armée russe déploie 4 armées (!) pour pousser, avec une progression très lente depuis 6 mois.

▪️Poussée russe dans le centre du Donbass menant à la prise de Pokrovsk et à la percée de Dobropilla.
✅Les ukrainiens ont empêché l'exploitation de la prise de Pokrovsk, l'armée russe n'a pas avancé ni sur Dobropilla, ni sur Droujkivka.
❌La bataille pour Kostiantynivka aura duré plus longtemps qu'anticipé par beaucoup (elle n'est par ailleurs pas terminée) mais la ville sera la première prise de 2026 cet été.

▪️L'initiative était quasi-exclusivement russe sur tout le front.
✅Les ukrainiens ont repris l'initiative partout, à Stepnohirsk, Pokrovsk'e, Novopavlivka, Lyman et Koupiansk.

▪️La Russie dominait la guerre des drones et les frappes à moyenne/longue portée.
✅Les ukrainiens ont globalement réduit la menace des frappes de moyenne portée avec les drones intercepteurs et ont lancé une campagne de frappes massives dans les territoires occupés, notamment sur la logistique russe.
❌Les frappes russes de Shahed/Geran et de missiles restent un problème pour Kyiv, notamment sur le réseau électrique et l'industrie.

▪️L'Ukraine était sous la pression américaine et l'aide européenne était en pause
✅Trump a finit par se désintéresser de l'Ukraine et l'UE a fournit une importante aide à l'Ukraine.

▪️L'organisation militaire était chaotique et la coordination souvent mauvaise.
✅La réorganisation avec le système des corps et l'armée des drones a permis de régler ce problème.

▪️L'Ukraine manquait cruellement d'hommes pour garnir la ligne de front.
❌L'Ukraine manque toujours d'homme et la mobilisation reste contestée dans le pays.

▪️Les lignes de défenses ukrainiennes n'étaient pas terminées, permettant le passage des troupes russes.
✅La plupart des 3 à 5 première lignes d'obstacles sont désormais complètes.

La guerre est un agrégat de facteurs dont l'issue décidera du futur, voici un résumé rapide des plus importants à partir de mes observations (✅favorable🟡moyen❌défavorable)

🔸Progression russe 🟡
🔸Attrition ukrainienne 🟡
🔸Programme de drones UKR ✅
🔸Aide internationale ✅
🔸Préparation défensive ✅
🔸Organisation des troupes, logistique, moral ✅
🔸Frappes russes ❌
🔸Economie ukrainienne 🟡
🔸Mobilisation UKR ❌
🔸Situation politique interne 🟡
🔸Frappes en profondeur ✅
🔸Diplomatie internationale 🟡

Ma conclusion :

Si la situation militaire, économique, diplomatique et politique était largement défavorable à Kyiv en 2024 et 2025, celle-ci s'est améliorée dans de nombreux secteurs en 2026. S'il reste des points critiques (frappes russes, difficultés de mobilisation, attrition au front, difficultés dans le Donbass), les ukrainiens ont stabilisé beaucoup de situations, renversant parfois la table, notamment grâce aux technologies. Je persiste à croire que le plus dangereux pour l'Ukraine n'est pas la guerre, mais l'après…

[auonsson @auonsson]

So thankful people are listening to this and even more when they make video of the interesting ones!

Will be fun once some soon to be leap in code manages to break the ciphers =)

[Small Wars Journal @smallwars]

“Cognitive warfare is now emerging as the new domain of war, characterized by escalation to extremes and the projection of the logic of war into the realm of psyches and ideas.”

With this in mind, Drs. Jean-Michel Valantin and Fabrice Lollia set out to answer the question: how should states understand and respond to the emergence of cognitive warfare as a new strategic domain?

📑Read their #SWJEssay: “Cognitive Warfare: A New Strategic Frontier?”

#CognitiveWarfare #InformationOperations #HybridWarfare #DigitalPropaganda #CyberSecurity #CognitiveSecurity #Disinformation #InfluenceOperations #ReflexiveControl #PsychologicalOperations #ActiveMeasures #NarrativeWarfare #InfluenceCampaign

https://t.co/vGlCSuOPXB

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sent an open letter to Putin. It includes some hard facts unpleasant for the Russian dictator. However, he also proposes a direct meeting for ending this war, on neutral soil, e.g. Switzerland, Türkiye or an Arab country.

Ukraine is having the strategic initiative. Putin is getting humiliated again and again. The war has reached Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Putin is under pressure, and even some Russian allies must feel it by now that Russia cannot win.

If Putin refuses then it would give Ukraine even more political backing. If Putin gives in, then during a phase of weakness. A clever gambit by President Zelenskyy.

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues to launch an important number of mid-range strike, targeting Russian 🇷🇺 logistics in occupied territories

Since early may, more than 270 trucks have been hit, together with multiple fuel depots and trains.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

The forgotten drone theater, the Sudan 🇸🇩 war

The main drone war currently ongoing is happening in Ukraine, another one is happening in the Middle East, but has anyone heard of how large the drone war in Sudan is ?

Let me explain it to you 🇸🇩🇹🇷🇦🇪🇮🇷🇨🇳:

🧵THREAD🧵1/11 ⬇️