The 2026 World Cup is here โฝ๏ธ
Throughout the tournament we're sending the model's best +EV value bets in the free newsletter โ opening weekend picks landing first.
Free newsletter in bio if you want them.
Full transparent record always public.
World Cup recap.
USA to win (Model 62% vs Market ~53%) โ landed. USA 4-1 Paraguay.
A Balogun brace and a comfortable opening-night win for the hosts. The market had the USMNT's shaky friendly form priced in; the model read it as an overcorrection.
Two World Cup bets, two winners. Every result, win or lose, stays public.
@ESPNFC A statement opening night for the hosts. Four goals, a Balogun brace, and a confident, controlled performance to launch their home World Cup in style. Exactly the start Pochettino's side needed.
Value bet: USA vs Paraguay
18:00 PDT / 02:00 BST
USA ๐บ๐ธ to win
Model: 62%
Market: ~53%
Edge: +9%
The hosts open on home soil at the Los Angeles Stadium against a Paraguay side back at a World Cup for the first time since 2010 โ and likely without their key creator Enciso. The market is pricing the USMNT's patchy friendly form; the model thinks it's overcorrected.
Full transparent record always public.
@FIFAWorldCup Exactly the start the hosts needed. An early goal to settle the Azteca, control from there, and a Group A position that already looks comfortable. 80,000 inside and a co-host up and running โ proper World Cup opening night.
Opening night recap.
Mexico to win (Model 68% vs Market ~57%) โ landed. Mexico 2-0 South Africa.
Quiรฑones early, then an emotional first World Cup goal for Raรบl Jimรฉnez at 35. Three red cards in between โ the Azteca delivered an opener.
One bet, one winner. Every result, win or lose, stays public.
Value bet: Mexico vs South Africa, 20:00 BST
Mexico to win
Model: 68%
Market: ~57%
Edge: +11%
The hosts open the tournament at the Estadio Azteca โ altitude, a home crowd of 80,000+, and a significant gap in squad quality. The model sees the market underpricing all of it.
Full transparent record always public.
@AndyRobsonTips The Netherlands at the price. Bookies expect a quarter-final exit, but a kind group and a defence that conceded four in six qualifiers make a semi-final run genuine value. The market's underrating them.
@FabrizioRomano This is a no brainer from PSG โ . They are potentially the most exciting football project in European football right now. A young, proven squad, now with a championโs mindset. Itโs going to take a big force to stop this PSG team and both of these players are key to the team.
@SkySportsNews A statement appointment from Liverpool. Iraola did remarkable work at Bournemouth โ one of the most aggressive, watchable sides in the league on a modest budget. The intrigue now is how quickly this squad adapts to his high-press style.
@talkSPORT Big call by Liverpool. Iraola took Bournemouth from relegation fodder to one of the most exciting sides in the league on a fraction of the budget. The big question: does this squad suit how he wants to play, or does it need rebuilding to fit him? ๐ค
@FabrizioRomano A genuinely high-variance appointment.
Iraola's Bournemouth consistently overperformed their expected numbers with a relentless high press โ a clean break from the Slot era.
Next season's title race could look very different.
@LFC Big appointment. One of the most exciting, aggressive coaches in the league โ Anfield could be a lot of fun next season. Welcome to Liverpool, Andoni. ๐๐ป