JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC Chairman Mike Selig says "The U.S. is and will remain the crypto capital of the world. The CFTC is locked in and ready to ship its rules for the new frontier of finance."
JUST IN: $40 BILLION REGULATED PREDICTION MARKET KALSHI IS NOW 80% OF ALL US VOLUME
GLOBAL CRYPTO DEMAND IS RETURNING TO AMERICAN MARKETS
WE DON'T NEED CLARITY 🚀
JUST IN: $40 BILLION REGULATED PREDICTION MARKET KALSHI IS NOW 80% OF ALL US VOLUME
GLOBAL CRYPTO DEMAND IS RETURNING TO AMERICAN MARKETS
WE DON'T NEED CLARITY 🚀
FOMC STATEMENT:
- The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%.
- The vote was 12–0. No dissents.
- Inflation is still too high.
- The Fed says this hike will bring inflation back to 2% faster.
- The economy is growing at a solid pace and spending has held up.
- Hiring is keeping up and unemployment has barely moved.
- Productivity and business investment are strong.
- The Fed says it will deliver price stability.
Overall tone: Hawkish.
BREAKING: The House Ways and Means Committee just passed the crypto tax bill 38-5.
The bill removes tax reporting on small crypto payments under $10, a real step toward making crypto usable for everyday spending.
THIS IS REALLY INSANE.
$BTC had one dump, and bears are all over the timeline.
There are now 3x more short liquidations than long liquidations.
Maybe Bitcoin could go down a bit, but the max pain is clearly to the upside.
The low is in.
People focusing on the news are always late and always wrong.
Clarity "failed" again, and FOMC raised.
And Bitcoin is still at $76,000, above 90% of its new bull market support levels.
Bitcoin is massively forward looking, and it front runs everything you can imagine before you can even imagine it.
There are much smarter people to me and you playing this game.
And they are not reacting to things on the day they happen.
I am expecting local downside as we finish off this range, but this will be local lows.
Not new lows.
My "Cycle Bottom" + "Bull Market" combo has never been wrong.
That does not mean it cannot be wrong, of course, ANYTHING can happen.
But these metrics are coded to only flash when a very large amount of data sets line up together. It is why they are so reliable.
We're gonna get a "scary" drop, very likely, into the $70k - $73k region, but I firmly believe this will be one of the last chances to buy assets lower before we run it.
Don't get shaken out.
Last time the FED held rates, $BTC dumped -4%
Today, the market is pricing in a 25 BPS rate hike
Bitcoin is still holding $75K after yesterday’s Clarity Act failure
But the dump today could be much worse...
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 SENATOR THOM TILLIS JUST OFFICIALLY FILED A MOTION TO RECONSIDER THE #BITCOIN CLARITY ACT
WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT PASSING IT
ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST 🔥
THE FEDERAL RESERVE JUST ACCIDENTALLY SENT THE MOST BULLISH BITCOIN SIGNAL OF THIS CYCLE.
And almost nobody is watching it.
Bitcoin doesn't move on hype.
It moves with liquidity.
The last time WALCL reversed like this?
- QT ended.
- Liquidity expanded.
- Bitcoin followed violently higher.
The exact same setup is appearing right now.
Same signal.
Same structure.
Same result.
The liquidity cycle has never been wrong.
And right now it's pointing straight up.
Bitcoin's next halving is 575 days out.
So I ran the identical 575-day window ahead of the last three halvings.
→ 2016 halving: +84%
→ 2020 halving: +39%
→ 2024 halving: +237%
Median +84%. From today's $75.5k that's ~$139,000.
But that +39% needs an asterisk the size of a building.
That window was tracking +68% into Feb 14, 2020. Then COVID. March 12 printed -39% in a single day.
It fell to $4,842, below where the window started, with 58 days left on the clock.
It still closed the window green.
Take out the one global liquidity event no model on earth contained, and the median of the other two is +160%.
Also, all three start dates landed BEFORE the bottom.
Every one bled first at -51%, -49%, -18% - with lows landing 33, 62 and 59 days later.
This time is different because we already printed $58.5k on June 30.
That's 78 days ahead of schedule, and the drawdown was -53% instead of -80%.
Either the map is early, or the cycle just got quieter.
n=3 (n=2 if you're honest about 2020).
Small sample size and not financial advice, but the historical data is interesting: