Coalition for Political Forecasting

The Coalition for Political Forecasting aims to liberalize regulations on political betting in order to serve the public interest.

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

Below is a link to a report by CPF executive director @pjchougule and board member @sia_solomon — "Political Betting Regulation in the United States: Pathways to Liberalization."

https://t.co/HxyN0BUvpm

The report dives deep into the regulatory outlook for political betting.

[Alfred Lin @Alfred_Lin]

In 2021, Thomas Peterffy invited Tarek to his house and offered to buy Kalshi.

At the time, Kalshi had practically no users, no volume, and zero name recognition. But Peterffy saw the vision.

Tarek and Luana turned down a potential life-changing acquisition offer.

They had deep respect for Peterffy, and the offer was serious money for what was a tiny startup. But the founders believed in Kalshi and were committed to giving it their all.

As their trusted partner and supporter, I told them to follow their heart.

Five years later, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers are business partners. These full-circle moments are truly special.

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"I think when most people think of insider trading,
they tend to think about criminal activity and financial markets and financial fraud and so forth.

But in the context of prediction markets, there's a live debate, actually, on whether or not insider trading is even good or bad.

The reason, basically, is because part of the value of these markets is the idea that they can create accurate odds for everyone to see.

Of course, if there are people who are participating in the markets who have good information that they can trade on, that is actually going to create more accurate pricing in the markets.

That can be very valuable."

— @pjchougule

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

https://t.co/O4pVEcfVm1

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"I think it's going to be very worthwhile for our community to get the insights of people in the gambling and gaming industry.

I realize there's a whole legal controversy over the exact definition of gaming and all that, which we've covered quite a bit on the show.

But it's fair to say that prediction markets are certainly—especially in this regulatory environment—moving in a direction where more and more lines are being offered that increasingly look like or resemble or have historically been part of gaming ecosystems.

Especially if those kinds of lines prove to be lucrative, then I think it will not be especially surprising if we wind up over time having prediction markets being regulated like gaming and facing many of the same political and moral and cultural hurdles that the gaming industry has faced."

— @pjchougule

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

https://t.co/4MU38jIqyY

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"In the context of prediction markets, there's a live debate on whether or not insider trading is even good or bad.

The reason, basically, is because part of the value of these markets is the idea that they can create accurate odds for everyone to see.

Of course, if there are people who are participating in the markets who have good information that they can trade on, that is actually going to create more accurate pricing."

— @pjchougule

[Mick Bransfield @MickBransfield]

It's very 'Old Vegas' how Nevada gaming regulators deny threatening the hotel over the prediction market conference, and then proceed to drop the threat again.

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"The @CFTC should provide guidance and adopt rule amendments addressing the application of the DCM Core Principles to prediction markets.

The single greatest source of regulatory uncertainty for prediction market operators is the absence of clear, durable definitions for the core legal concepts that govern what they may and may not offer.

Without definitional clarity, operators face inconsistent enforcement, participants face unpredictable legal exposure, and the Commission expends resources resolving disputes that bright-line rules would prevent."

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

Coalition for Political Forecasting research director @MickBransfield and executive director @pjchougule submitted the following comment in response to @CFTC's Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding the oversight of event contracts and prediction markets.

https://t.co/WSMENlJQeT

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"Prediction markets have matured from academic experiments into regulated exchanges operating under Commission jurisdiction, yet the regulatory framework has not kept pace with that maturation."

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"The more regulators have to think about this, the more they have to define, well, what is gaming? What is gambling?"

@JulieMasonShow1

https://t.co/REzN0QyKJE

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"In the context of prediction markets, there's a live debate on whether or not insider trading is even good or bad.

The reason, basically, is because the value of these markets is the idea that they can create accurate odds for everyone to see.

Of course, if there are people who are participating in the markets who have good information that they can trade on, that is actually going to create more accurate pricing in the markets.

That can be very valuable if people want to know the real odds of, let's say, an election."

— @pjchougule

[Predikt @predikt_gg]

Prediction markets are picking up serious momentum again. Here’s how 7-day notional volumes looked across the top platforms this week:

1. @Kalshi - $3.85B
2. @Polymarket - $1.13B
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $219M
4. @predictdotfun - $189.2M
5. @trylimitless - $130.7M
6. @SX_Bet - $11.3M
7. @Overtime_io - $3.8M
8. @MyriadMarkets - $846K

Source: @Dune

Track stats and start predikting at best rates through @predikt_gg. 🔮

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

https://t.co/zS2O5kmhir

@cgtnamerica

[Coalition for Political Forecasting @CoalitionPolFor]

"I think when most people think of insider trading, they tend to think about criminal activity in financial markets and financial fraud and so forth.

But in the context of prediction markets, there's a live debate, actually, on whether or not insider trading is even good or bad.

The reason, basically, is because part of the value of these markets is the idea that they can create accurate odds for everyone to see.

Of course, if there are people who are participating in the markets who have good information that they can trade on, that is going to create more accurate pricing."

— @pjchougule

[Mick Bransfield @MickBransfield]

Fourth Circuit oral arguments in Kalshi v. Martin scheduled for tomorrow, Thu May 7 @ 9:30am. This is the PMs appeal of decision in lawsuit against Maryland state gaming regulators.

Hearing will be streamed:
https://t.co/FkkG24qWsQ

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

https://t.co/AoTAFYWZpu

@cgtnamerica

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"The idea basically is that if you go on a typical stock market, you can bet or trade on the value of certain companies.

But there are, of course, many more events in the world that you could theoretically bet on.

Prediction markets are a platform where, in theory, any event in the world—whether it's an election, a sports match, or the weather, any number of other things—you can create a market on these platforms, and then traders can come and wager on it.

The theory of it is that this is an important tool not only just to help people bet on whatever they're interested in.

The idea is that when you create a market and you see how people are trading on it, that can create valuable information that's beneficial for people well beyond those who are actively participating in the market."

— @pjchougule

[Nancy Scola @nancyscola]

That story (for subscribers) is here: https://t.co/SIaQJPjtBB.

[Nancy Scola @nancyscola]

Prediction markets are booming—and sparking a lot of angst. It's Mike Selig's job to regulate all that.

For @theinformation, I sat down with the 36-year-old chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to talk over his vision for what happens next.