Star Spangled Gamblers

A podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"You see people who are degens at heart and they get a few lucky bets early on and their bankroll skyrockets and then over time they dwindle away.

But I've found that with a lot of people who are fundamentally very sharp and rational analysts, it's difficult to know when something is a 90% versus an 80% favorite."

https://t.co/9ZvdnhxnI6

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"Let's face it. When you stop and think about human beings, what are the main drivers? Food. Sex. Gambling...Those have been drivers for millennia. That's not something new. It's just the way you've operationalized it is new."
— Amb. Thomas Miller

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"It's like the guy who goes broke because he falls in love with the @onlyfans girl.

If you're going to give Saira Rao your money to come and berate you, I'm going to assume that you have a masochistic fetish and that somehow or the other you're enjoying it.

I would blame her. But I would blame her second to the people that actually write the checks."
— @Rule3O3

https://t.co/8OYeRarHMn

[Star Spangled Gamblers @SSGamblers]

"Anyone who had that outsider mentality—they felt they were wronged or below some kind of a hierarchy—if those resentments linger, that can lead to a very profound degree of motivation to succeed."

https://t.co/5ftz9v66mA

[Marshall Cohen @MarshallCohen]

CFTC enforcement chief David Miller told me at @nextpredictio that the agency has scrutinized insider trading cases tied to the 2026 midterms. "We’re watching" and "we’ll come after you" if you're a candidate or campaign staffer doing insider trading. https://t.co/s5LyrmaMa0

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Former Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) tells Politico that Vivek Ramaswamy should take down Acton ad

“The increasing incivility in the political arena should concern us all. This ad is an unfortunate example of that broader trend. It crosses the line. I hope the ad will be taken down and the final days of the campaign will focus on policy differences.”

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

#IowaSenate

Ashley Hinson calls on Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Acton ad in interview with ABC News.

She also called JD Vance's comments "ridiculous" when he defended the ad.

[Natalie Fertig @natsfert]

I ALSO recently went to Michigan and talked to @AbdulElSayed + voters about his bid to persuade disaffected MAHA voters to come over to his side.

Republican John Trocke told me that El Sayed might end up winning him over.

My first story for the @washingtonsun:

[Eventual @EventualNews]

The early vote in TX, OH & more | Garrett Fulce https://t.co/ARb7mhQHJp

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

#OhioGovernor

President Trump writes in lengthy Truth Social post that Vivek Ramaswamy shouldn’t take his ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother down.

Calls it very powerful.

[Eventual @EventualNews]

Early vote buffet with the pros

[Gaeten Dugas @GaetenD]

Listen to Carl. Read his book and paper. It will help with your election trades.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - 2028 presidential poll - National

🔵 Hunter Biden 37%
🔴 Donald Trump Jr. 36%

UMass Lowell - LV - 10/4

[Gaeten Dugas @GaetenD]

It's funny that so few people listen to Carl on this topic. A large part of the discussion around polling error comes from assuming that undecideds will split evenly when they don't and there's no reason to assume they will.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

AP: Senator Jon Husted (R-OH) on Vivek Ramaswamy's ad that featured Acton's estranged mother

"I would not have run that ad."

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

On the intellectual decline of young conservatism:

"When I worked as a reporter in Washington during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, the ambitious young conservatives were involved in Republican politics at Penn or writing for the conservative student newspaper at Dartmouth...The members of this new generation are more likely to have grown up outside a city like Columbus, Ohio, and to have gone to state school or Christian college. Solheim, a compact, red-headed 29-year-old who is American Moment’s CEO, boasts he’s never admitted an Ivy League alumnus to his organization"

They have to be taught to "tuck in their shirts" and "shower daily."

Thankfully, low IQ movements are less competent, and I expect these people to struggle in intraparty conflicts once they no longer have Trump to mobilize the less educated among the general public. And if they do take over the right, that's going to be very good for Democrats.

[Natalie Fertig @natsfert]

For the sitting governor in the same party to say this is a big deal:

[Natalie Fertig @natsfert]

Taking a buyout in a reorg is tough, and freelancing is really tough, but I have two stories publishing later today for great outlets I’ve never written for before, and it’s finally starting to feel like there’s a light at the end of the journalism tunnel. 🙏 if you’ve been laid off or re-orged out lately, hang in there. Keep hustling, it’ll come through.

[Eventual @EventualNews]

Scandals change elections when they confirm what people already thought.

Vibes: You might be a scumbag
Scandal: You are a scumbag

@GaetenD has it here

And it's why Vivek is a sinking ship

[Natalie Fertig @natsfert]

Thanks to @mlcalderone for assigning me this story, which turned out to be a wild ride. 🙏

You can read it here: https://t.co/va9IsdoDj9