Lance Uppercut

I gamble on politics and events.
DMs open if you want to discuss markets.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Giannis hysteria, brought to you by Shams. @kalshi bettors might have a case for commodities fraud from his relentless pumping.

Throughout this process, I valued Giannis at about ~25% to be traded by the deadline. Because the market was dominated by fanboys market buying their team to >20c, the winning option hit as low as 33c from negative risk dynamics.

Why didn't this trade happen? Let's go through this, thread below.

[Shams Charania @ShamsCharania]

The Milwaukee Bucks have indicated to teams that they are keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo through the trade deadline and will start making other trades, sources tell ESPN.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@BrandonMH1 My Steyer ballots are separate. I left them all unsigned after mailing so when he's within 0.5% of Hilton I can get $1k a pop from him to get them cured.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

I've voted in the LA Mayor's race about 20 times now. My 5 votes for Raman show as received by LA County. My 15 votes for Pratt still haven't "arrived". Mailed them at the same time with my address being a port-a-potty in Venice Beach. This is how Dems are stealing the race.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@enggirlfriend @grok how many people live in the pacific palisades as a ratio of the number of people in the city of LA

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Life is cruel. Lotta @spencerpratt buyers on @kalshi likely have a bunch of Raman N shares so need to root for Karen Bass in the general election now 😂

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@uf__001 RIP Charlie. Box 3 hype was getting me a lot of fills on Polymarket (AMM days).

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Computer, enhance

[Brent Scher @BrentScher]

I think the people with money against Spencer Pratt on @kalshi are low IQ. He's at 37% chance. I don't even think they teach math in LA anymore, but let's do some anyway.

Pratt is up by ~40k votes with ~300k votes left.

A bulk of those, say 100k, will go to Karen Bass.

So that means Nithya Raman out of the remaining 200k, would need to get about 120k to Pratt's 80k to pass him. That's about 40%, when right now she's at rate of 22%.

It's LA and all votes are not created equal, but I would put my money against Nithya getting 40% of the remaining votes.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@wedgewoodpol @ZacharyDonnini @VoteHub two factored thing. larger D splits + more Steyer consolidation. more D ballots and he wins bigger share of them.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Berkeley IGS poll | 5/19-5/24

Los Angeles mayor jungle primary 2026

(Top two vote getters advance to November)

🟦Karen Bass 26% (incumbent)
🟦Nithya Raman 25%
🟥Spencer Pratt 22%
🟦Rae Chen Huang 9%
🟦Adam Miller 5%
Undecided/did not vote for mayor 10%

https://t.co/tn7Zcbm9u4 https://t.co/tn7Zcbm9u4

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Thinking about the guy who spent $1M on Spencer Pratt to win LA Mayor

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Same day a loony tune acquires 3.88M shares of Spencer Pratt on @kalshi, ripping through the book whilst eating slippage and paying ginormous fees, Cygnal drops a poll of LA Mayor showing:

-Bass 47-33 over Pratt in a H2H
- 25/22/18 for Bass/Pratt/Raman
- Favorables of -50 / -20 / -12 for Trump / Bass /Pratt.

So lots of room in the fall for a concentrated Dem campaign to tie Trump to Pratt and sink him lower than Bass.

Not to mention he could miss the runoff entirely to Raman if she overperforms the primary electorate. So people are paying through the nose for Pratt when he may not even be there in the Fall.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

If you're in line to vote for Pratt, stay in line!!!!

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Going to fill out my ballot in Glendora today to vote for Spencer Pratt for LA Mayor!

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@ssigsbee @ImawhalePM Do you get any rebates from Kalshi on fees for this amount of volume?

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@PeterHamby My understanding is the Pratt guys will just try to vote anyway because "there is no voter ID"

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@PredMTrader Almost worthless, as long as there is no indication that Lukas guy is exercising the Acting DNI role. Never trust the Trump admin (think this is beyond unlikely and not betting it)

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

@cynical_reason I will NEVER FORGET G1 Bucks Pacers

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Good to know who your counterparties are

[kuz @kylekuzma]

For my parlay papis I’m going big on @spencerpratt 🎥🇺🇸🙏🏽

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Anyone else almost lose hundreds of thousands on the best heavyweight boxer in the world to beat a kickboxer? Nightmare fuel. Was ready to look up food kitchens.

[Zub @ZubbyBadger]

In the most impressive feat of predicting ever, the traders on @Kalshi successfully predicted with a high degree of certainty who would win survivor before a single episode aired!!

They also flawlessly predicted who would get voted out each week (except for 2 weeks where they were wrong at first, but right eventually before the episode aired) and were able to forecast what Jeff would say in each episode!

Give it up for your Kalshi traders!!!

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Should go without saying this poll, while not clearly disclosing sponsorship, reeks of some kind of pro-Pratt funding with the language and "informed ballot" questions favoring Pratt.

[Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI]

Same day a loony tune acquires 3.88M shares of Spencer Pratt on @kalshi, ripping through the book whilst eating slippage and paying ginormous fees, Cygnal drops a poll of LA Mayor showing:

-Bass 47-33 over Pratt in a H2H
- 25/22/18 for Bass/Pratt/Raman
- Favorables of -50 / -20 / -12 for Trump / Bass /Pratt.

So lots of room in the fall for a concentrated Dem campaign to tie Trump to Pratt and sink him lower than Bass.

Not to mention he could miss the runoff entirely to Raman if she overperforms the primary electorate. So people are paying through the nose for Pratt when he may not even be there in the Fall.

[Cygnal Polling & Analytics @cygnal]

BREAKING: "Bass is flat, capped out, and carrying the weight of a city voters believe is headed in the wrong direction."

— @brentbuc on new LA Mayor poll, which shows @spencerpratt pulling even with Bass at 25% among likely primary voters.

Full breakdown on our website👇
https://t.co/kXXdzVLUUU