B Lock

Professional Risk Taker: Macro, FX, Crypto | Globetrotter | Oenophile | Points Junkie | Happiness = Perceptions - Expectations

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

Trading is a mirror for your psychology.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Starlink on Singapore Airlines! 🇸🇬

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to shut down the gas station...
https://t.co/7lGPw7xLTz

[Crypto.com @cryptocom]

🚨 Breaking News:

Today is a historic day for $CRO

Trump Media Group CRO Strategy has announced $6.4B in funds to build America’s Cronos Treasury.

At closing, Trump Media Group CRO Strategy is expected to be the world’s largest holder of CRO.

Read the press release for more info on the proposed Business Combination and important info about $YORK, $YORKW and $YORKU

https://t.co/4O4mx46KZJ

[Kris @kris]

- A historic day for $CRO. Trump Media Group CRO Strategy announced a $6.42b U.S. Dollar treasury play. See the press release for more info on the proposed Business Combination and important info about $YORK, $YORKW and $YORKU. Here’s what you need to know:
- A definitive agreement for a business combination with Nasdaq-listed $YORK to establish Trump Media Group CRO Strategy was signed today
- at completion, it will trade as $MCGA — Make CRO Great Again
- at completion, Trump Media Group CRO Strategy will be the WORLD’S LARGEST HOLDER of $CRO, with 6,313,000,212 CRO
- This ~6.3 billion CRO tokens is worth approximately $1b as of the time of the announcement
- separately, Trump Technology Media Group ($DJT) acquired $105m of $CRO and https://t.co/dwRH3YcIjT acquired $50m of $DJT
- This brings the total $CRO under the Trump Media Group umbrella to ~7 billion tokens.
- $CRO will become the PLATFORM TOKEN of Truth Social as a part of this broad, strategic partnership
- at completion, Trump Media Group CRO Strategy is expected to have $200m CASH to acquire more CRO
- https://t.co/dwRH3YcIjT and Trump Media Group are each chipping in additional $100m cash each via warrants and Yorkville is chipping in $20m cash via warrants, bringing the TOTAL CASH to ~$420m
- the company will also have access to a further $5 BILLION LINE OF CREDIT from Yorkville to, yes, you guessed it right, acquire even more CRO
- cumulatively, this will add up to an UNPRECEDENTED amount of DRY POWDER for any Digital Asset Treasury company, exceeding the total market cap of $CRO as of the time of announcement
- to put it in perspective, to reach similar level of buying power and impact on Ethereum, leading ETH treasury companies would have to buy hundreds of billion of ETH — just unprecedented
- Trump Media Group CRO Strategy will hold the CRO it acquires FOREVER
- Trump Media Group CRO Strategy will stake the CRO it holds to further boost its CRO holdings and generate ROBUST REVENUES for $MCGA
- let’s talk about $MCGA — all founding partners are fully committed to long term success for all $MCGA shareholders
- This means 4 year LOCKUPS for Trump Media & Technology Group, Yorkville and https://t.co/dwRH3YcIjT and $MCGA management (12 months full lockup and then partial unlocks every 6/12 months)
- very reasonable public float of 13% — original $YORK holders
- this presents a differentiated opportunity for investors in the Digital Asset Treasury space
- the mission of Trump Media Group CRO Strategy is to enhance shareholder value by maximising THE FLYWHEEL EFFECT: more funds raised, more CRO bought, prices appreciate, allowing for more funds to be raised and more CRO to be bought
- as a result of the flywheel, one should expect Cronos to reach its FULL POTENTIAL as the backbone of all financial services, including powering payments for AI agents
- it appears that the market has responded well to the news
- In the wise words of the namesake of the soon-to-be world’s largest holder of CRO: THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER
- Here’s the official release: https://t.co/DCvwjCoqB2

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

Tariffs announced by Trump

🇲🇲 Myanmar: 40%
🇱🇦 Laos: 40%
🇰🇭 Cambodia: 36%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 35%
🇷🇸 Serbia: 35%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 32%
🇧🇦 Bosnia: 30%
🇿🇦 South Africa: 30%
🇹🇳 Tunisia: 25%
🇲🇾 Malaysia: 25%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: 25%
🇰🇷 South Korea: 25%
🇯🇵 Japan: 25%

[Trinh @Trinhnomics]

Where are we? We are here - ball park of 50% effective tariff on China & 10% on rest of the world + 25% sectoral tariffs (auto + steel) + 54% tariff on de minimis (w/ USD100 flat fee).

I edited this chart a bit to remove the April 2025 framing that makes people a bit confused about where we are.

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

Overthink your losses and you'll attract more losses.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Turmoil in Taiwan's foreign exchange market is bound to lead to questions about how shifts in Taiwan will impact the US bond market; Taiwanese investors have been fairly steady buyers of Treasuries and US corporate bonds over the last 5 years

1/

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OUCH! Trump’s first 100 days are the worst for the stock market since Nixon in 1973. https://t.co/LMhvEC4NXa

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

Shein Hikes US Prices as Much as 377% Ahead of Tariff Increases

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

The count of container vessels sailing from China to the US has tumbled.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

Lots of talk of the bearish Death Cross we had this week in $SPX, but there is nuance to them. Last death cross March 2022 SPX rallied 11% after, with no new low for 1.5 months. Before that, late March 2020 death cross failed and marked the bear market low.

They only truly confirm when SPX loses the ultimate low set prior to the death cross (which is now 4832 in ES)

[Jason Goepfert @jasongoepfert]

Today will likely be the 4th consecutive gap down > -1% in S&P 500 futures.

Since their 1982 inception, that's happened once before...September 16, 2008.

That was the morning after the Lehman Brothers collapse.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

PROTECTIONISM IS BACK, AND RECESSION COULD FOLLOW, MORGAN STANLEY SAYS

President Trump's policies amount to a return of protectionism, with the effective tariff on U.S. imports potentially rising to 22%, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a research note. That would mark levels not seen in a century and more than double what the analysts expected coming into the year, they write. "We doubt that tariffs will alter the deficit in the current account," the note reads. "In the short run, protectionism equals isolationism. Higher inflation, lower growth." The analysts say that the risk of a recession has risen sharply.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Worst quarter for US stocks relative to the rest of the world in 23 years

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Half of vehicles sold in the US are imported. If the cost of tariffs is passed on to consumers, it's likely to result in a $4,000-$5,300 average increase in ticket prices: JPM. JPM sees Honda, Ford, Stellantis & GM as best positioned; Ferrari, Porsche & Jaguar most exposed

[Crypto.com @cryptocom]

We are excited to announce that https://t.co/vCNztATSCO will partner with Trump Media for ETFs, including a first of its kind ETF basket of cryptocurrencies, including #CRO and other crypto assets.

https://t.co/EyxAH4Zhp6

[Kris @kris]

Proud to partner with @realdonaldtrump’s Truth Social on a series of ETFs, including the world’s first ETF with $CRO

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Bitcoin is the foundation of the crypto economy.