Jacob Parker

Options, Futures, Derivatives (CFOA)
Data Engineer(SQL Snowflake)

$SOFI $BMNR $NBIS $BTC Bull

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

Okay these names outperformed since I made this post. (Couple major laggards but nothing too bad)

Time to make another list of stocks/assets I think will outperform the s and p over the next couple of years.

NVDA
TSM
AVGO
AMD
SOFI
HOOD
CRWV
NBIS
NOW
CRM
INTU
APP
META
AMZN
MSFT
LLY
HIMS
BTC/MSTR
ETH/BMNR
ZETA
RDDT
AFRM
C
COF
FOUR
TCEHY
BABA

If I had to hold only ten of these the next two years and NOT LOOK -I would go with:

1. NVDA
2. SOFI
3. TSM
4. NOW
5. COF
6. MSFT
7. ETH
8. BTC
9. META
10. LLY

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

The set and forget portfolio (all IMO ofc) :

1. $AMZN - Cheapest on a p/fcf basis its maybe ever been. Huge growth for a megacap. Huge benefactor of AI.

2. $GOOGL - True monopoly. Undervalued. Huge benefactor of AI.

3. $NVDA - Central part of the AI revolution and still undervalued even after this growth. Huge moat.

4. $TM - Best Auto company in the world as rates are coming down. Undervalued. Great dividend. Great diversification.

5. $LLY - Drug manufacturer with huge growth incoming IMO. Good diversification for the portfolio. Huge moat. Their NVDA moment might be coming.

6. $DIS - Trading at the proper value of just their theme parks honestly. Only in the dumps because of their inability to profit from streaming business. This will improve and the margins will expand meaningfully. Only true competitor to netflix with HULU/disney+.

7. $OXY - Best positioned American oil company in the Permian basin. Great for oil diversification in the portfolio. Buffett's oil pick.

8. $META - Around fair value now. But huge AI and possible future metaverse benefactor. Enormous Moat. True Monopoly.

9. $BRK.B - Diversified Insurance and financial business. Money with Buffett is always a good thing.

10. $BTC - Hedge against dollar inflation. Must be in every portfolio. Best risk adjusted returns of any asset.

[Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen]

You do know that it's a bull market, right?

Stocks? Yes. They're in a bull market.

Bitcoin? Yes. It's back in a bull market.

I learned, once upon a time, that a great way to increase your net worth is to own assets in a bull market.

But that's just me.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS RECOVER TO PREWAR LEVELS

Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 98% of prewar levels, reaching roughly 17.5 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan.

Producers are increasingly bypassing Hormuz through alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers, with 40% of September crude exports avoiding the strait.

However, the recovery remains uneven: diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports are still around 50% of normal levels, keeping global fuel supplies vulnerable.

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@DymaxionAlpha @Mr_Derivatives 🤣 fair

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@DymaxionAlpha @Mr_Derivatives Unless you’re my wife

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@DymaxionAlpha @Mr_Derivatives But you aren’t risking money by walking out of your front door lmao

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@DymaxionAlpha @Mr_Derivatives Some would say starting a business is a gamble, I would agree

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

Well I think the official is risking money to make more or something similar.

But the connotation of the word gambling almost makes it sound like negative EV itself.

When that’s not technically the case.

Just some people are professional intelligent gamblers and most are losing gamblers.

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

If you were listening to Warsh today the most important thing you should’ve gotten is that the Fomc will follow the market not lead the market.

Short term t-bills will give us a 100 percent accuracy in predicting future fomc rate path.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN REJECTS TRUMP’S DEAL CLAIM

Iranian state-linked Tasnim News rejected Trump’s claim that Tehran wants a quick deal with Washington.

The outlet said Iran has repeatedly stated it does not seek negotiations with the U.S. government, accusing Trump of making false claims about Tehran’s willingness to reach an agreement.

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@amitisinvesting Core was fine and kinda good actually. this data is fine tbh

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@drayinvests Price is in balance

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

BESSENT:

NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ON WHAT FED MAY DO OR NOT

TRADITIONALLY YOU DON'T RAISE INTO A SUPPLY SHOCK

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@slightight @Barchart True. But to be fair Leopold was being a pig. Pigs get slaughtered. If he wasn't levered at all he still wouldve smashed every other fund. or at least buy some insurance puts if you are gonna do that idk man

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@Sandeman52 also cape doesn't take into account growth rates..

[SandemanStocks @Sandeman52]

Lots of doomers posting CAPE ratio. Oh I’m scared.

The CAPE ratio isn’t useless, but comparing today’s CAPE directly to past years is increasingly apples to oranges.

The S&P 500 today is dominated by asset light, high margin tech companies with recurring revenue, massive free cash flow and global scale.

Accounting has changed. Buybacks have changed. Interest rates have changed. Index composition has completely changed.

And CAPE still averages 10 years of earnings meaning today’s denominator includes COVID shutdowns, the 2022 earnings reset and other unusual periods.

A high CAPE tells you stocks aren’t cheap compared to the aggregate 10 years prior. If the 10 years prior have skewed data, expect a skewed output.

It’s like saying a nfl bench quarterback is a hall of famer. Well, yeah, he’s going to look like one if the other 10 quarterbacks you compare him to are college D3 quarterbacks.

Any time you hear a new doomer spit out a data point you should pick it apart before you swallow it blindly.

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@TJTheWheelDeal if it breaks 143 on aggressive buying i don't see how it would go that low at least medium term

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran reframes Trump's and Bessent's announced "Operation Economic Outcast" as "solely based on a design by his media team, aimed at increasing psychological pressure on the Iranian people" and "these media operations usually occur on the eve of the reopening of financial markets, with the aim of controlling energy prices," a high-ranking Iranian source told Tasnim.

Iran says "Each time, after controlling energy prices, these campaigns end with Trump's statements such as 'I am giving Iran time,' or 'Regional countries have intervened to prevent this,' or 'We have achieved all our goals,' and notably, immediately afterward, the line of negotiation with Iran is raised in media outlets close to Trump."

Iran adds "in practice, the United States has done everything it can against the Iranian people, from initial and secondary sanctions to naval blockades, and more," so "nothing new will happen in the field."

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@StockMarketNerd @amitisinvesting Is he just trolling? Or whaaa

[Jacob Parker @CodeAndCandles]

@Sandeman52 Burry is always early asf lol

It’s gonna rip up to smack him