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🚨 Massive shorts on Hyperliquid
One fund is short $1.31B, 8.7% of the exchange's open interest, both wallets use all their margin
Arkham attributes the positions to Abraxas Capital
The five largest, $1.12B of the total:
🔹 $BTC: $413.7M short, 12.3% of all $BTC open interest
🔹 $ETH: $400.5M, 15.5%
🔹 $ZEC: $114.2M, 19.5%
🔹 $SOL: $99.1M, 17.7%
🔹 $HYPE: $89.6M, 5.6%
The shorts are almost three times the fund's $447M balance on Hyperliquid, but liquidation is far
By our math, the prices of all its shorted assets would have to rise 17-19% at once
Together, two wallets made about $217M on perps in 30 days
Positions can change fast, and these shorts are most likely a hedge
@ElNachoCrypto@variational_io Agreed , hyperliquid is a good example of a community that stayed after TGE. Curious what Variational offers that keeps people around the same way, maybe $VAR price
@SmartDropFarmer@Lighter_xyz Yeah, that’s not a bad range, since this is a joint campaign with a native token, not yet another perp DEX points program. Though I’ve also heard some FUD about the partnership between them breaking up
💥 Extended finally sets its TGE for November 2026, with 30% of $XTEN supply for the airdrop
Today Extended team confirmed the ticker and the allocation: 300M $XTEN for eligible participants
Extended's docs show 69.2M of 70M points distributed as of Oct 6. If all 300M tokens were split by points, one point would get about 4.3 $XTEN
Our math, at different FDVs:
🔹 $150M FDV: about $0.64 per point
🔹 $300M FDV: about $1.29 per point
🔹 $500M FDV: about $2.14 per point
🔹 $1B FDV: about $4.29 per point
Polymarket's odds on FDV one day after launch - 68% above $150M. That puts the median near $230M, or about $1 per point
The last OTC deal we found, on the ExtendedOTC market on Jan 9, sold 25,000 points at $2 each, which implies about $470M FDV. So Polymarket sits at about half of that price
What FDV do you expect on launch day?
🔭 Four things we are tracking, sorted by how well each is sourced
Confirmed by the project: TxFlow Builder Code caps builder fees at 0.1% per fill on perps and 1% on outcome markets (Oct 22). Season 0 rewards are due by Oct 27, per its Oct 20 post
Media only: Lighter plans to file for a CFTC license in November, per Crypto Briefing (Oct 21). Lighter has not mentioned it
Community only: Hyperliquid's next USDC reserve yield payout is expected around Nov 3, with $14.88M accrued, per a fan account (Oct 23)
Our data: edgeX keeps $0.011 per $100 traded, and its volume campaign ended Oct 16
Only the TxFlow item rests on a project post we have read in full