Some classic Chevy Chase lines from Fletch, which is 41 today.
Under the laughs, it’s a tight, well-built detective story: drug trafficking, murder-for-hire, and a film-noir backbone; just brighter, with punchy one-liners.
Might rent it tonight. I’ll charge it to the Underhills.
"Almost the whole world is asleep. Everybody you know. Everybody you see. Everybody you talk to...only a few people are awake and they live in a state of constant total amazement."
Joe vs. the Volcano via Jed Talks #2
Natural gas prompt moves past $3/MMBtu.
L48 weather forecasts saw only minor changes from Friday. The Rockies cooled nearly 26°F, but that was offset by the rest of the L48, keeping the overall shift limited.
Power demand gained 5.4 Bcf/d from Friday as temperatures warm to a 74°F L48 average (Criterion). Modeled demand is expected to stay elevated through the back half of the week before easing into the weekend.
Prices are also starting to factor in El Niño risk (NGI). El Niño typically drives hotter global temperatures and more extreme heat. NOAA’s CPC now shows an 82% chance of development by July.
On the structural side, US data center buildout appears stalled (NGI). Hyperscalers are planning $650–700B in capex for AI, but timelines are slipping versus actual progress. About 80% of announced projects remain in pre-construction.
Gas-fired generation is expected to anchor that buildout over the next several years.
2026, day 139
Good morning from Asia.
‘Trump says 'clock is ticking for Iran' after call with Netanyahu on China, Hormuz’ (JPost);
‘US, Iran Far From Hormuz Deal as Trump Says Clock Ticking’ (BBG);
‘‘No tangible concessions’ in US response to Iran proposal: Iranian media’ (AFP);
‘Trump: There won’t be anything left of Iran if it refuses peace deal’ (Telegraph);
‘Drone attack that damaged UAE's Barakah plant designed to 'send message' to UAE, sources tell Post’ (JPost);
‘Saudi Arabia says it intercepted three drones entering from Iraq’ (Al Arabiya);
‘The Iran War Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations’ (NYT) - “Iranian attacks and the stoppage of seaborne transit have paralyzed Qatar’s vital gas exports, stalling the economic pivots intended to anchor the country’s growth”;
‘Israel strikes Lebanon while Hezbollah calls talks ‘dead end’’ (AFP);
‘’Now 60%’: Netanyahu admits Israel taking more territory in Gaza, despite ceasefire’ (ToI);
‘Ukraine’s deadly drone strikes on Moscow ‘entirely justified’, says Zelenskyy’ (FT);
‘Following attack on Moscow, Zelensky touts 'shift in the balance' on battlefield, signals more deep strikes’ (Kyiv Independent);
‘U.S. eyes attack-drone threat from Cuba’ (Axios);
‘Trump advisers fear China may target Taiwan in next 5 years’ (Axios);
‘Will the Trump-class battleship really be able to deter China?’ (SCMP);
‘Trump says ‘nothing’s changed’ on Taiwan. But his words belie a big shift’ (Japan Times);
‘South Korea to host Prime Minister Takaichi as quasi-state guest’ (Japan Times);
In geoeconomics, ‘Iran energy crisis enters new phase as peak summer season approaches’ (FT) - “Emergency measures spread as oil stockpiles run low”;
‘Gulf freight rates jump as shipping companies turn to trucks to move cargo’ (FT);
‘The future of America’s military industrial complex’ (FT) - “In an age of disruption, defence is undergoing seismic and lucrative change”;
‘This Arkansas Town Is Humming With the Sound of Missile Making’ (WSJ) - “To meet wartime demand, Camden is channeling its residents into defense manufacturing”;
‘China to buy at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually, White House says’ (Reuters);
‘India restricts most silver imports to cut import bill, support rupee’ (Reuters);
‘Stung into action: How Europe can deter both China and the U.S.’ (Euractiv) - “Brussels doesn’t hold any trump cards over Washington or Beijing. But this doesn’t mean it always has to fold”;
‘A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war’ (SCMP);
‘China investor gobbles up 120-year-old German sewing machine maker’ (Nikkei Asia);
‘Maserati Is Teaming Up With China: Report’ - (Motor1) - “The Italian automaker is allegedly in talks with Huawei and JAC to develop and build Maseratis in China based on Chinese technology”;
‘Japan's Sumitomo Metal, Sojitz look to Southeast Asia for rare earths’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam hold promise for building China-free supply chain”;
‘Australia Orders Chinese Investors to Sell Stakes in Mining Firm’ (BBG);
‘’Loophole’ to allow millions to negatively gear homes’ (AFR);
‘Samsung, Labor Union to Meet in ‘Last Chance’ to Avert Strike’ (BBG);
In politics, ‘Spain’s Conservatives lose majority in Andalusia, leaving far-right deal likely’ (Politico);
‘Eurovision faces tough questions over country participation’ (Politico) - “The song contest’s existential moment over Israel’s participation is far from over”;
‘Burnham retreats on push to rejoin EU’ (Telegraph) - “Labour leadership contender distances himself from previous calls following backlash”;
‘Tories should stand aside for Reform in Makerfield, says Rees-Mogg’ (Telegraph);
‘GOP lawmakers battle as conservatives press for third budget reconciliation bill’ (The Hill;
In markets, ‘Bond Traders See Tipping Point Toward New Era of Higher Yields’ (BBG)
“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”
-Mark Twain
SCOTUS decision winner/losers:
Winners:
Plantiffs attorneys
Defense attorneys
Risk management consultants
Insurance brokers
Mega truckload carriers
Top 200 freight brokers
Lobbyists
Fraud and compliance software
Losers:
Anyone not a top 200 freight broker
Small trucking firms
Load boards
Factoring companies
Anyone working with small truckers or brokers
Criminals and fraudsters
OMG, this is the most pivotal moment in trucking history since Deregulation.
It could be an extinction event for 30-50% of all freight brokers.
Matt Lefler and I will be on the air at 11AM ET to discuss. Live, streaming on X.
Hey Craig: just came from the IFA’s conference and the boots on the ground (Triumph and other Trucking folks) report the following as it relates to factoring: rates are up because of the carrier purge you have pointed out, but volume is flat, same amount of loads, i.e., no real growth happening and there are many carriers on their last gasps.
Commercial and industrial loans made by banks are up 7.4% year-over-year, the biggest jump in three years: @PantheonMacro While this can indicate a pickup in capex spending, this time it shows how banks are taking the place of private credit firms that are pulling back: Pantheon