Colin Johnson

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

$PLTR 🔥 Earnings

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@clarkmarz @WholesomeMeme Good luck selling all the gold at spot. Also, storage, transportation, and security costs would be much more

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@JonahLupton Apple will trade at 50x in 2030 once the leasing program catches on. 43% of earnings is 76% margin services. If the hardware started becoming subscription based, Apple will trade like Costco.

[Neil Cybart @neilcybart]

Within Apple's Stocks app under AAPL, a few CNBC videos in which TV talking heads are talking with "analysts" about Apple earnings are shown. I'm not exaggerating when I say literally every point raised in most of these videos is either wrong, misleading, irrelevant, or just dumb.

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@neilcybart It is actually sickening how stupid all of these “analysts” are. 2H 2022-2024 they never understand how FX was a 8-10%+ headwind. 2025 they somehow thought tariffs were like a $30 B + hit and I said it would be $3-6B, which it was around $4B. Then the Buffett selling non sense.

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@mweinbach They must think supply constraints continue or there is some demand destruction from price increases. I disagree with the demand destruction as other brands will be raising prices and also have supply issues. Apple in US also has leasing program and carrier subsidy

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

$AAPL demand outpaces supply. They are eating market share while others struggle. Also, q4 25 margin was 47.2%. The guide was in the 46-47% range backing out tariffs. Keeping margins the same y/y with the memory crisis is huge. Margins will go up once phone prices are raised.

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@neilcybart He basically said lobster too buttery steak too juice and people are selling. Demand will keep being strong as other OEMs raise prices or leave markets. Mac will be strong as well as people try to move to hybrid models or on device compute

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@neilcybart Phone price increases by $100 and getting other component suppliers to discount due to the declines in other OEM production will stabilize this for Q1. I think this is why there was a report on the 20% reduction for OLED panels.

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@mweinbach A company that does not have to spend to make money says we can’t make enough product to keep up with demand and people are selling the stock lol. Mac growth shows imo how well Apple hardware will do next few years due to AI and the lease program will really help

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@munster_gene They are also going to eat market share this year and next year. Samsung earnings showed the $200-$500 smartphone category is bleeding money. Those companies will have to raise prices and be close in line with Apple entry level devices. Leasing options in US will help Apple

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

Samsung Smartphone operating profit goes from 10% to negative. Shows the low end smartphone is bleeding money. 1Q was positive due to premium flagship launches. Apple will eat market share. $AAPL @neilcybart @mweinbach @DivesTech @fitz_keith

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@mweinbach @jukan05 Their operating margin was around 10% a year ago. The low cost devices they sell now lose money. This doesn’t translate to Apple as Apple has 35-38% hardware margins and does not sell any low end devices.

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@neilcybart No, I am saying leasing would lower upgrade cycle. If phone upgrade timing is 3.5 years, it could move down to 2-2.5 years if leasing caught on. Mac could really benefit due to users wanting to upgrade every 2-3 years now due to AI demand and also needing highest spec

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

FYI if $AAPL lease program works out and expands regions the bull case is lowering upgrade times by 12-18mos and creating essentially hardware subscription and more Applecare sales. Most would opt for higher ASP devices. 12-15% consistent rev cage. Would trade at 50x

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@neilcybart See you at $10T (~$750-800) in 2030

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@Mr_Derivatives It really isn’t when I click and see him saying Berkshire has been selling Apple when they haven’t since Q4 2025

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@DylanMcD8 Look at the shipping times of MBA vs MBP

[Colin Johnson @ColinJohnson13]

@Mindset4Money_X Thank you for letting us know you have a negative ytd