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early-stage investing @ beat ventures | 0s and 1s, music, and basketball

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

Insane. Iconic tip by OG #Knicks

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@wolfejosh Assaulting our king

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@yrechtman *this month. Shows how much a bandwagon fan I am.

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@EconCharlie Looked like he was playing w a nerf basket

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@ASDem @km insane work

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@tarheelswire *wilson

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

I was told we were going to balance the budget

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

Why did that FT reporter have to tell him about the taco trade.

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

Are you saying Gavin's analysis here is wrong and the current tariff plan won't seriously hamper America's chances at winning the AI race?

Right now, the AZ location produces only 20k wafers per month--a drop in the bucket. TSMC's new $100b commitment to US production (on top of the 2020/22 $65b investments) won't bear fruit until the end of the decade.

[Russ Roberts @EconTalker]

Some fallacies running wild, free of economics logic:

If a nation runs a trade deficit with another nation that other nation is cheating.

That it’s good to keep the money at home.

That tariffs will restore the middle class.

That only the rich benefit from free trade.

That tariffs are paid by importers, not consumers.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

It wasn't just the tariffs, it was the flakiness of the "analysis" underpinning them. At that point, even sanewashing became impossible

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

@JordanSchachtel @yashar Navarro. He’s closest to what Trump has been harping on since the 80s.

[Eric Boehm @EricBoehm87]

Free trade has hollowed out the working class, so we need high tariffs to kill free trade, but we'll lower our tariffs if other countries agree to lower theirs, and then we'll celebrate the great deal that created more free trade, which is the thing we started this war to end

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Geopolitically, nothing matters more than winning AI.

These tariffs, as constructed, essentially guarantee that America will lose “AI” by making America the most expensive place on earth to build AI datacenters.

The semiconductor exemption was irrelevant for AI. Datacenter semiconductors come into America in finished goods from Taiwan and other Asian countries: servers, storage systems and networking switches. By the time we have developed the capacity to domestically produce these systems, we will have lost the AI race.

Outside of this dynamic, the assumption - or wild gamble - that other large countries would not retaliate and instead come meekly to the negotiating table was erroneous.

That was the off ramp and Bessent did his best to encourage the world to take it. China, understanding how awesome all of this is for them, did not take the off ramp.

Epic win for China.

Best outcome from here - that is in the realm of the possible - would be to quickly cut “deals” with friendly Asian countries - Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. Something like a 10% tariff plus true reciprocal tariffs (which would quickly go to zero) would be reasonable.

I say all of this as someone who was open-minded to tariffs that were thoughtfully constructed, gradually phased in and accompanied by massive deregulation. Ideal outcome would have been some combination of reshoring, revenue generation and seeing our largest trading partners lower their barriers to American goods. It is a fact that until yesterday we generally had much lower tariff rates than other countries.

My sense is that is where Bessent was, but he clearly lost an internal battle. Hopefully the market helps the President realize that a course correction is needed and the necessary changes are made relatively quickly.

The sooner, the better.

As a sidenote, I can only imagine how Bessent felt when he understood the way the reciprocal tariffs were calculated, that an LLM had generated the tariffs and that islands inhabited only by Penguins were being tariffed as a result.

[Sheel Mohnot @pitdesi]

Listen to this guy - Mitt called it all so well!

[Josh Barro @jbarro]

You idiots. The Trump team didn’t use a formula of (exports-imports)/exports. As Kush here points out, the formula was (exports-imports)/exports*4*.25

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Zelensky is a wartime leader watching his people suffer and die under Russian attacks every day. To be lectured and lied to by Trump and Vance, as they defend the war criminal dictator committing these atrocities, is unimaginable agony. An everlasting shame for America.

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

1) What

[ⒸⓄⓁⒾⓃ @ColinRogister]

If we go through w these 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada and 10% on China, and it leads to a full-scale trade war, it'll be a massive economic self-own