Nick Colletta

Bitcoin | Director of Accounting @Strive | Previously @SemlerSci @deloitte

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

staying humble and stacking sats 🫡

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

@ZynxBTC I agree.

Strive is actively engaging DC regularly to make this happen and putting money to work on this initiative through the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

Although I suspect the timeline to make this happen is long, we will not give up until we win.

[Nick Colletta @CollettaNick]

@IIICapital few.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

I'm imagining the bears who think that Bitcoin is so weak that if you buy 4% of it and talk a lot, you can destroy the whole network.

It's not even a person, but a group. Bought 4%.

Like, somehow the key weakness of Bitcoin is that if someone buys 4% of it, everything fails.

[Nick Colletta @CollettaNick]

@pastorcoin You just love to see it

[Steven Lubka ☀️ @DzambhalaHODL]

No notes

[Nick Colletta @CollettaNick]

@evanhorowitz @farmhouse_inc @PunterJeff @IIICapital @Werkman @TimKotzman @AdamBLiv @BTCtreasuries

[Farmhouse, Inc. $FMHS @farmhouse_inc]

Farmhouse has added 200 Shares of $SATA on this dip for our Digital Savings 🏧

$FMHS

[Aaron Bennett @Aaronbennett]

Thank God I didn't buy any bitcoin when it went to $16K in 2022.

Because that would have been a horrible decision.

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

I’m bullish.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

If capital markets access were completely shut off, the @Strive balance sheet can pay SATA dividends until December 2027, without selling a single Bitcoin.

That’s 4 months before the anticipated 2028 halving.

[Ben Werkman @Werkman]

It was a very busy week at Strive!

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

Did you know Strive's current balance sheet could withstand a repeat of the 2022 bear market without needing to sell a single Bitcoin?

That would equate to a ~$40k $BTC bottom & not sustaining above the 200 WMA until Oct 2027.

BTC isn't dead...be greedy when others are fearful.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

Strive team hit the BTC order book hard last week

Largest non-IPO single week buy in company history

Eclipses the prior record we set two weeks ago

19,000 total BTC and picking up steam.

[Ben Werkman @Werkman]

More than $100M in volume on the ex-dividend date, with a closing price of $99.56, down just 0.44% from par.

Continued progress for $SATA.

[Ben Werkman @Werkman]

Develop a strategy which can be executed consistently over decades.

One day, one week, one month, one quarter. It is all noise along the journey.

Steady, relentless execution is what will deliver long-term results.

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

Strive expects to increase the size of both the $ASST and $SATA ATM programs by $2.1 billion each, reflecting a sustained increase in liquidity and demand for both securities.

We will provide a balance sheet update tomorrow pre-market.

[Ben Werkman @Werkman]

Progress continues.

Significant increase in volume, with a close at $100.01 on the final day before ex-dividend.

$SATA

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

I agree.

We spend a tremendous amount of time thinking about downside risk, stress testing scenarios, and building protections accordingly. In our view, $ASST is not over-amplified. If anything, we believe it remains under-amplified relative to the opportunity set Bitcoin presents.

It’s important to understand that risk management is a constraint, not the objective.

The goal for Strive’s common equity, $ASST, is to outperform Bitcoin and maximize long-term shareholder returns.

Importantly, we are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk. There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%. The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside.

This philosophy informs every major capital allocation decision we make. We start by protecting against outcomes that could permanently impair shareholder value. Once that threshold has been met, our focus shifts to maximizing expected value.

In our view, risk is not measured solely by the probability of loss. It is also measured by the opportunity cost of failing to fully participate in a highly asymmetric outcome.

That is why we intentionally have no debt, maintain substantial dividend reserves, and run amplification aggressively. We seek to eliminate risks that could permanently impair shareholder value so that we can maximize amplified participation in Bitcoin’s upside.

We believe Bitcoin’s return distribution will continue to be highly asymmetric to the upside. If there is a meaningful probability that Bitcoin compounds dramatically over the coming decades, the optimal capital structure is not the one that sacrifices substantial upside to marginally improve an already remote downside outcome. It is the one that preserves resilience while maximizing participation in that upside.

This is also why we are focused on acquiring as much Bitcoin as we can while it remains below $100,000. We believe Bitcoin is likely to be substantially higher over time and that periods where Bitcoin trades near its 200-week moving average are precisely when amplification should be run as aggressively as prudently possible.

We think in probabilities, expected values, and equity compounding. If you optimize around fixed income math, you should expect fixed income returns.

We built the company we personally wanted to own: an engine designed to maximize Bitcoin per share growth, outperform Bitcoin, and maximize shareholder value across a wide range of bullish Bitcoin outcomes.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

I never feel bearish on Bitcoin because I never feel bullish on fiat.