The Compound Atlas

Investor | $3M personal portfolio | 25–30% CAGR over 8 years. I write about earnings, valuation & long-term compounding.
Not financial advice

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Almost 40% CAGR for last 4 years. Not bad.

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Remember the opportunity.

The Uinta basin guys lose ~$13-15/barrel.

Assume $ADUR gets $4 royalty per barrel. These guys produce 180,000 barrel per day. This is $260M revenue sitting right there. Take 75-80% margin and give a multiple of 20.

You are talking about $4B (~$120/share) company right there.

Remember: This is much cleaner and simpler than dirty and mixed plastics.

There's a reason Ofer and team are running after this!

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

These guys are going full steam in multiple verticals. Love the momentum. Keep going $ADUR team!

[amit @amitisinvesting]

OH. MY. GOODNESS.

CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND.

So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen...

On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names...

Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent...

AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding.

A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid.

ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Well well, who else is on the top of the charts! Qwen by none other than Ali - effin - $BABA !

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Grok Voice is now #1 in agentic performance

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

These guys are going full steam in multiple verticals. Love the momentum. Keep going $ADUR team!

[Aduro Clean Technologies @AduroCleanTech]

Our program evaluating Hydrochemolytic™ Technology for highly paraffinic crude oils has reached a new stage, advancing toward continuous-flow process development. 👉 https://t.co/v7k4WFsp0X

Highlights:

- Feedstock secured from multiple Uinta Basin sources, supporting our next test campaigns
- New lab-scale continuous-flow unit completed, dedicated to the paraffinic crude program
- London facility expanded by ~4,600 sq ft to support equipment and operating activities
- Operations consolidated from Sarnia to London, bringing our team together at one site

Paraffinic and waxy crudes are estimated to make up 20%–33% of global crude production. This work advances our Technology Demonstration toward Process Development and Optimization, building the operating envelope and data needed to guide next steps.

"With feedstocks secured from multiple sources and continuous-flow capability now in place, we can evaluate the technology under sustained operating conditions and build the evidence needed to guide the next phase of development," said Ofer Vicus, CEO.

$ADUR #CleanTech #EcoInnovation #HeavyCrude #UintaBasin

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

$OSCR THE PIRATE SHIP 🪙🚢⚓

[Oscar Health @OscarHealth]

Who in healthcare is incentivized to lower costs?

@mtbert, Oscar Health CEO, talks with @chrissyfarr, CEO of @second_op_media, about why the system is not built around lower costs for consumers.

▶️ NEW VIDEO 🔗 https://t.co/8xsmulh8f2

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

@StockSavvyShay Why is this a big deal? Shouldn't 12m revenue (ARR) be higher than 3m (Q2) revenue? What am I missing?

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

@CMDarnton0 Wow! What are you doing today with your $500M? 😜

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

😎 $ZETA

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Added some $ZETA

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Started a new position in $TEM

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

@Stefan_Skippy Indeed. Any risk you are seeing to that thesis?

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

$RIO riding high on earnings due to increase prices from commodities. Increases dividend.

There's another copper play out there $OCO.NE. Not without risks, but worth looking at. We have a small position.

https://t.co/ErHb23ZVfA

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

@jukan05 Or the other way around 😅

[Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊 @BrianTycangco]

Chinese tech names ripping higher despite the AI gloom on Wall Street and South Korea. Like I said, China is emerging out of its decade-old transformative phase thanks to AI while still armed with the world’s biggest, most efficient manufacturing base. $KTEC $KWEB $BABA $JD $TCEHY $BIDU $BYDDF $KUASF $NIO $MPNGF

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Good results for $CNC

Setting up well for $OSCR

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

CENTENE $CNC Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $53.6B (Est. $47.62B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.51 (Est. $1.08) 🟢
🔹 HBR: 89.6%; -340 bps YoY

Raises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $193.5B-$197.5B (Est. $191B) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: >$4.80 (Est. $3.52) 🟢
🔹 GAAP EPS: >$3.11 (Est. $3.52)
🔹 Premium & Service Revenue: $173.0B-$177.0B; raised by $2.0B
🔹 HBR: 90.5%-91.3%

Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Medicaid: $22.8B; +5% YoY
🔹 Commercial: $9.4B; -7% YoY
🔹 Medicare: $11.1B; +17% YoY
🔹 Other: $1.2B; -2% YoY

Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Commercial HBR: 79.2%
🔹 Medicare HBR: 89.5%
🔹 Medicaid HBR: 93.9%
🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 7.0%
🔹 Cash Flow from Operations: $3.6B

Comments:
🔸 “Our second quarter results and improved full-year outlook represent meaningful milestones on our path to restoring profitability and increasing shareholder value.”

🔸 “We are excited by the positive momentum we have built and remain focused on our goal of delivering industry-leading health outcomes with an industry-leading cost structure.”

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

What does today's $ADUR valuation assume at $500M?

TL;DR
Market is assuming today that by 2035, there would be 15 plants (25k/year). 0.1% penetration. Only their plastic recycling revenue stream.

Is that conservative? Of course.
Is there risk even to reach here? Yes.
As an investor, see what you want to pay for this business today.

My take - either it's zero and nothing works for them or its something multiple times of this number. It cannot be that tech works and they still have just 0.1% plastic recycling by 2035 and no other revenue stream working.

Of course, I'm bullish and own 42,000 shares of the company.

Do your own diligence. Not financial advice.

Break down below:

Today's market cap - $500K

Discount rate till 2035 - 15%

Market cap (2035) - $1.7B

PE multiple - 25 (conservative)

Aduro Earnings - $70M

Aduro Earnings/Ton - $1250 X 20% royalty X 75% EBITDA= $190/Ton (the $1,250 is again conservative)

# of Tons processed = $70M / $190 = 370K = 15 plants of 25K.

Plastic industry is today at 430Mt/year growing at 4-4.5% every year. By 2035, that will be 650-700Mt/year. Assume 50% of the plastic is Aduro's TAM, that's 350Mt/year TAM.

370K/year would mean 0.1% penetration.

[Penny Queen @The_PennyQueen]

A Wall Street firm just put a $30 target on $ADUR (~$13 today).

Water-based chemistry turning waste plastic into recycled naphtha. ROTH calls 300-400K tonnes of capacity by 2035 the conservative case.

My largest position. DYOR. @TheLongInvest

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

Will be interesting to see what assets they buy with this capital.

$ZETA

[David A Steinberg @dsteinberg10000]

As @ZetaGlobal continues to grow, so does our capacity to invest behind it. We’ve closed a new $1 billion credit facility, so that as opportunities for M&A come available we have the dry powder we need., we can buy back more shares faster, and have greater corporate liquidity

There’s a lot of opportunity ahead for Zeta, and this positions us to capitalize on it. $zeta
LG 🚀🚀🚀

Read more here:

https://t.co/emijU9hKdX

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

CHINA STARTS MASS-PRODUCING HOMEGROWN DUV CHIPMAKING TOOLS, AN ADVANCE FOR LOCAL CHIP INDUSTRY - THE INFORMATION

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

$ADUR One more investor coverage!
Awesome!

[Makingmoneynow @makingmoneynow1]

New coverage and buy rating for $ADUR by Roth. 12 months PT of 30USD

[The Compound Atlas @CompoundAtlas]

@RealNickMugalli Rerating should come soon. The stock is massively undervalued.