J.A.

[Chris Cappy @Cappyarmy]

topple Iran and Venezuela and that's 20% of China's oil energy supply. China will have to turn more to Russia for cheap oil. Remove El Mencho cartel leader in Mexico and you get rid of the criminals taxing 15% off the top of US-Mexico trade. That is all critical to US plan to decouple from China. The actions we're seeing over the past week are connected.

The US is implementing a grand strategy designed to weaken China's position. The goal is, If China moves on Taiwan in the next two years they will do so without support in the middle east, without proxy cartels in Mexico and without a Russia able to launch any attacks on NATO. The US goal is to focus 100% on the pacific in the next two years.

[Avi @AviFelman]

The talent level at hedge funds is so far above the talent at VC funds. when they interact it's like watching a human speak to a gaboon

[Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling]

(Warning: long rant)

My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue.

I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll through Facebook posts and Instagram reels from the Dutch Bros drive thru line. Political moderates who have water cooler chats about Mahomes touchdowns and Bon Jovi concerts, not Twitter threads or Rachel Maddow monologues.

Millions of them. Tens of millions. They’re logging on, they’re engaging, and they’re furious.

And I’ll be candid: They blame you guys. They blame the left.

Regardless of whether you believe it to be justified, they think you’re the bad guys here. And they are reacting accordingly.

I can already hear some of you racing toward the comments to start screeching in moral indignation, so I’m going to be blunt: Shut up and listen to what I’m telling you. Your movement will lose any semblance of relevance if you don’t develop some small measure of self-awareness, and—absent someone force-feeding you bitter medicine—you guys collectively lack the humility to do this on your own.

Here are the facts:

Fact 1. Tens of millions of Americans started the week seeing a 23-year-old blonde woman—a young woman in whom virtually every parent watching pictured their own daughter—stabbed in the neck by a career criminal. These people then found out the murderer had been released from jail 14 times over.

Fact 2. Two days later, tens of millions of Americans watched a video of Charlie Kirk get murdered speaking to college students. Millions of these people knew who Charlie was; millions of them didn’t. Upon seeing the video, however, these normal Americans from across the land and across the political spectrum agreed that he was the victim of a terrible, fundamentally unjustifiable crime, and their hearts broke in sympathy for his family. Good people who had never even heard the name Charlie Kirk before wept.

Fact 3. Immediately after seeing the footage of a peaceful young man get shot in the neck, these same people logged onto Facebook and Instagram (remember, we are talking about regular Americans, not perpetually online Twitter or Bluesky users) and saw some of their local nurses, school teachers, college administrators, and retail workers celebrating this horrific crime. Not just defending it, but cheering it.

These are all facts. You may not like the implications of these facts, and we can certainly debate the underlying causes thereof, but, indisputably, they are nevertheless factual statements.

Here’s what it means for you, the Democrats reading this:

These normal, middle-of-the-road, non-political citizens just become politically active. They realized that politics cares about them, even if they don’t particularly care about politics. After watching Iryna Zarutska and Charlie Kirk both bleed out from the neck, they think their lives and the physical safety of their families—the bedrock of human society, the foundation of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs—depend on political activation, whether they desire it or not.

These people are now sprinting—not jogging, not walking, but racing—to the right. Because they blame you guys for everything that just happened.

When they see footage of Decarlos Brown stabbing a Ukrainian refugee to death, they don’t see just one demon-possessed man. They picture every university administrator, HR bureaucrat, and DEI apparatchik that ever lectured them about systemic racism, the “carceral state,” or the need to release violent crime suspects without bail in the name of social justice.

They then think back to conversations they’ve had with their cop friends—their buddy from high school who quit the force after getting tired of being called a racist, their friend at the local YMCA who vents about having to release career criminals because Soros-funded prosecutors aren’t willing to file charges—and they realize everything the left has told them over the last five years has been utter bullshit.

And they blame you. Because, even if you count yourself as a moderate Democrat, your party supported the district attorneys, city council members, and mayors that let fictitious concerns about mental health and racial justice supersede very real concerns for their family’s safety.

When these Americans see blood erupt from the side of Charlie Kirk’s neck, they don’t see just a martyred political activist. They think of every extreme leftist they’ve ever met who (1) calls anyone to the right of Hillary Clinton a fascist and (2) constantly jokes—“jokes”—about punching Nazis and “bashing the fash.”

They realize that there really do exist people who wish to see them dead for their moderately conservative political beliefs, their Christian faith, and even the color of their skin. They ask themselves if the violence visited upon Charlie might one day show up on their own doorstep.

And they blame you. Because, even if you’re just a center-of-the-road liberal, you lacked the courage to police your own ranks. You let modern-day Maoist red guards run loose across every facet of society, and what started with social-media struggle sessions has now turned to 30-06 bullet holes.

When these Americans log onto social media and see their neighbors justifying, celebrating, glorifying murder, they realize that some who walk among them are soulless ghouls at best, literally demon-possessed at worst. These people—whether they faithfully attend church every Sunday or only attend with relatives once a year, on Christmas Eve—start talking about things like spiritual warfare. They implicitly understand that no normal human casually celebrates the mortal demise of a peaceful person.

And they blame you. Because, even if you condemned Charlie Kirk’s murder, they probably haven’t seen you condemn those in your own movement who cheered it on. They view you as complicit in allowing heartless fellow travelers to celebrate death, and it repulses them.

For all of these situations, what has your response been? Nothing but bullshit.

In response to Iryna Zarutska bleeding out on the floor of a train, you post bullshit statistics about reductions in reported crime, when everyone who’s ever been to a major urban center in the last decade knows that actual crime has skyrocketed, only for victims not to waste their time reporting it to cops that don’t have the manpower to respond and prosecutors that seek to downgrade as many felonies as possible to misdemeanor citations.

In response to a 31-year-old man taking a bullet to the neck in front of his family, you post nothing but bullshit whataboutism.

> “What about January 6th?” (Honest answer: After you let Liz Cheney spend two years operating a star chamber in the House, combined with countless other failed attempts at “lawfare” against Trump, no one cares anymore.)

> “What about Mike Lee making a dumb joke on Twitter about some guy in a mask in Minnesota?” (No one outside of Utah, DC, or Twitter knows who Mike Lee even is.)

> “What about Paul Pelosi?” (That’s not comparable to Charlie Kirk getting shot, and we all know it. And, again, Paul who?)

> “What about regulations on assault rifles?” (That’s not going to get you very far when one of these killers used a knife and the other one used a common hunting rifle.)

In response to teachers, healthcare workers, and thousands of other liberals cheering on Charlie’s murder, it’s nothing but more bullshit and misdirection.

> “It’s not THAT many people celebrating!” (Yes, it is. Everyone has seen it on their Facebook and Instagram feeds.)

> “I thought you guys didn’t support cancel culture.” (We don’t cancel people over their opinions; we’re more than happy to see people lose their jobs—especially their taxpayer-funded jobs—for actively cheering on murder, though. If you can’t see the difference, that’s your own shortcoming.)

All bullshit. Not even smart bullshit, but stale, mid-grade, low-IQ bullshit. Ordinary Americans see right through it, and they don’t like how it smells.

You probably don’t like hearing this. But you need to hear it.

Because I’m right, and, as you reflect on this, you know I’m right. The ranks of my political movement gained millions of righteously angry new members this week. We have a mandate to ensure these crimes never happen again, and that’s exactly what we are now going to do.

If you want to keep a seat at the table as we do so, you’d better clean house and start policing your own.

[bayes @bayeslord]

“thank you mr president. thank you. thank you. i really want to thank you. you know what? thank you. that’s … well, thank you.”

[Gonzalo G. @Gxndisalvus]

Gracias a que pensé en relaciones largas a los 15, en menos de 4 meses me caso con el amor de mi vida.

No hagáis casto a estos mensajes que ven a las personas como bienes de consumo, tomaos en serio las relaciones que tengáis y el compromiso que conllevan.

Amad.

[Abbé Faria @AbbeFaria55]

@JesusFerna7026 @MrtnzAlvrz @Jongonzlz @cultrun Cada vez más convencido de que la asfixia actual es demográfica: la boomerwaffe prefiere flujos inmediatos (pensiones hoy) a proyectos con TIR diferida (infraestructura, educación). El discount rate del español medio se ha disparado, lo que tmbn explica en parte el cupo catalán

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

very few decisions in life matter as much as who you marry and what line of work you pursue a career in

as long as you think long and hard about those two decisions, the rest mostly takes care of itself

[Martinez (JonGnzlz, no te olvidamos) @MrtnzAlvrz]

En el último mes anuncian que venden stakes en private equity Harvard, Yale, CIC. Anuncian que revaluan su exposicion a private capital CPPIB y el mayor fondo de pensiones de Dinamarca.

YTD: BX -20%, KKR -21%, TPG -25%, CVC -24%…

Siempre tuve esa sensación de que mi generación llegaba al final de la fiesta, nos perdimos esos años de crecimiento masivo y ahora parece que llegamos a un punto de i flexión donde la industria ya madura va a empezar a experimentar una competencia mucho más dura por levantar cada nuevo dólar de AUM, los fees se erosionaran, al sector lo Jack Bogle-aran mientras los escalafones ya se encuentran repletos y los partnerships fueron IPO’eados.

No es apocalíptico, simplemente menos divertido.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The two major state / nations to suffer large blackouts since 2020 — Texas and Spain — have one thing in common: both are electricity islands, with tiny interconnection to neighbouring grids. In Texas, by design; in Spain, by policy inertia / lobbying. #apagon

[Javier Tudela @javielon95]

Ojalá me equivoque pero creo que han ahogado el sistema teniendo muy poca generación eléctrica con inercia creando frecuencia en la red, ha subido tensión y han ido saltando subestaciones por nodos afectados y por efecto cadena a toda España sin luz

#Apagon

[guillem 🦆 @vinates]

En general, los que en su LinkedIn tenga puesto "Ex-Deloitte", "Ex-KPMG", "Ex-PwC", "Ex-EY", "Ex-Accenture", mano, ¿de qué presumen? ¿De tirar VLOOKUPs a las 11 de la noche?

[Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein @shortbus_ace]

trump got me so fucked up I check the 10y before going to bed

[David Miranda @davmiranda]

Cosas de remuneraciones en grandes firmas de abogados.

Cuatrecasas contrata a la consultora McKinsey para establecer el nuevo reparto de “units” (derechos económicos sobre el beneficio de la firma) entre sus socios.

Para los que no estéis familiarizados con el reparto de beneficios a través “units”, éste sistema nace en las firmas “white shoe” de NY a finales del s. XIX, como una alternativa al “eat what you kill” (remuneración en función de facturación generada).

En este sistema, a cada nuevo socio se le asignan un número de “units” y esas “units” se van incrementando o reduciendo periódicamente (cada 1-3 años), en función de unos criterios preestablecidos que miden su contribución a la firma (teniendo en cuenta no sólo la facturación aportada por el socio, sino también otros aspectos como liderazgo, responsabilidades de gestión interna, reputación, capacidad de generación de nuevos clientes…).

El valor de cada “unit” es el resultado de dividir el beneficio de la firma por el número de “units” en circulación. A modo de ejemplo, si en una firma el beneficio es de €10M y hay 1.000 “units” creadas, cada “unit” tendría un valor de €10.000 (= €10M/1.000). En el caso de Cuatrecasas, la noticia dice que el valor de cada unit rondaría los €14.000.

El sistema de “units” tiene la ventaja de que es un método de remuneración transparente y no requiere de farragosas (y, a veces, fiscalmente ineficientes) ampliaciones de capital social (para dar mayor participación en beneficio a determinados socios, diluyendo la participación del resto de socios), amortizaciones de participaciones (para reducir la participación de beneficios de determinados socios, acrecentando la participación del resto de socios) o venta de participaciones entre socios (para reducir la participación en beneficios de unos socios en favor de otros, sin impactar en la participación del resto de socios) a fin de modificar la remuneración de los socios.

Es decir, el sistema permite que todos los socios tengan una participación igualitaria en el capital social, sin que ello impacte en su remuneración, pues ésta depende exclusivamente del número de “units” que se le asigne a cada uno.

La desventaja es que la determinación de la aportación de cada socio a la firma (según los criterios establecidos) no está exenta de subjetividad y las típicas quejas del “qué hay de lo mío” (razón por la cual, entiendo, la dirección Cuatrecasas ha decidido apoyarse en un tercero a la hora determinar la nueva distribución de “units” entre sus socios).

Como nota informativa final, en las sociedades mercantiles profesionales (al menos, en las de abogados), Hacienda no permite el reparto de beneficios vía dividendos (salvo, en su caso, una parte simbólica), por lo que dichos beneficios se distribuyen como renta de actividad económica (tributando al tipo marginal de IRPF). Con el agravante de que Hacienda considera asimismo que la sociedad profesional debe repartir prácticamente todo el beneficio (para forzar así su tributación, pues, en caso de que ese beneficio se destinara a reservas, Hacienda no lo “trincaría”). Esto de facto obliga a que, si un año las cosas vienen mal dadas, los socios tienen que rascarse el bolsillo para capitalizar la firma o mandarla a concurso, pero a Hacienda esto se la trae al pairo, pues su único interés es “trincar” a toda costa.

Por esta razón, normalmente el beneficio después de impuestos de las grandes firmas de abogados españoles es muy pequeño (en comparación con su facturación), ya que el reparto del beneficio es un gasto deducible.

https://t.co/vcINVApBWy

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Yeah I just graduated from Wharton and run a search fund to buy companies with lots of cash flow. I cold email 30 HVAC family businesses every day. Walk them through how we can add tons of value by doing tuck in M&A. Anyways, what are your plans tonight?

[Martinez (JonGnzlz, no te olvidamos) @MrtnzAlvrz]

what if we kiss under the volatility blanket

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

If you have an internship in finance coming up within the next couple of months, here are my 10 pieces of unsolicited advice on how to leave a good impression and land the return offer

🧵

[JULISMO @juliomeva]

Hay algo mágico en pisar el suelo que nuestro antepasados cimentaron

Veranear en la casa de tu bisabuelo

Llevar la corbata de tu padre

Prestarle el coche a tu hijo

No es dinero, es orgullo. No es acumulación, es propósito. No es “herencia”, es legado.

[Martinez (JonGnzlz, no te olvidamos) @MrtnzAlvrz]

Es curioso el lifecycle de un banquero de inversión.

- Durante los primeros cuatro años todo se trata de ser eficiente. Ser capaz de sacar la mayor cantidad de trabajo bajo presión.

- De repente el curro cambia, eres un project manager, el objetivo es tener a la gente enchufada y sintiendo la presión

- Pasan los años, pam, nuevo rol, toca ser un asesor financiero con agudo instinto comercial y abultada rolodex.

[Kfund @Kfundvc]

Kfund Investment Team Role

We're seeking a dynamic investor to join our team and play a key role in shaping the next generation of entrepreneurship in Southern Europe and LatAm. Read on for more details

https://t.co/ISMk7LXefW