Connor Dunham

Investing from Alaska #bitcoin #realestate #valueinvesting

[bad robot ventures @foxenflask]

Anyone saying @michaeljburry stance on AI is hard to understand needs to:

- Expand their time horizon: He isn't calling AI fake or useless, he's looking years ahead (2026–2028+) at where massive capex, depreciation tricks, and job displacement could collide with reality.

- Stop thinking in absolute terms (AI good/bad, bubble/not bubble): He acknowledges the tech is real and powerful (even more than many bulls admit), but warns the current investment frenzy and feedback loops could turn bullish assumptions into systemic bearish outcomes.

- Layer in the market, the global economy, and adoption rates as major factors: Commercial success isn't automatic; it depends on actual revenue generation, consumer spending power, and whether productivity gains translate into broad economic demand rather than just margin defense + layoffs. Commercial success is different from the actual technology being valid.

- Recognize he's not anti-AI technology itself: His recent post sharing the Citrini piece (with 'And you think I’m bearish') shows he sees scenarios even darker than his own critiques, where AI works too well at displacing white-collar work without a self-correcting mechanism.

- Consider historical parallels he often references: Think dot-com or radio/electrification eras. The underlying innovation was revolutionary, but early capital misallocation and over-leveraged players got crushed long before society fully benefited.

His view is classic contrarian macro. The more transformative the tech, the bigger the potential dislocation if the economics don't hold up under the weight of trillions in expectations.

[Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle @KenCao_onChina]

Putin Is Running Back to the Dollar — Beijing Won’t Like This. The Anti-Dollar Alliance Is Falling Apart.

What if the loudest champion of “de-dollarization” is about to run back to the dollar?

In this video, I break down reports of a leaked Kremlin memo suggesting that Russia may be willing to return to dollar-based settlement as part of a broader deal under a Ukraine ceasefire framework. If true, this isn’t just about Trump or Putin. It could reshape the entire narrative around de-dollarization, gold, and China’s long-term strategy.

We’ll examine why Russia’s war economy may be forcing hard choices, why liquidity beats ideology when survival is at stake, and why Beijing could be the most uncomfortable player in this story.

The dollar’s dominance isn’t about slogans. It’s about depth, trust, and settlement power.
And when the system gets renegotiated, not everyone gets a seat at the table.

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

FACT: $11 TRILLION VANGUARD SAYS IT WILL SOON LIFT ITS #BITCOIN BAN AND START SELLING ETFs

FINANCIAL GIANTS BENDING THE KNEE 🚀

[Eagle🇺🇸 △▽ @LiquidityEagle]

@JoeCarlasare Collectibles to outperform

Study art On-Chain

[jack @jack]

https://t.co/Txt3eLyRRn

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Why is Powell talking about cutting rates with US Treasury receipts running up 6-7% y/y to all-time highs?

Check out the 3q25 TBAC report...it "says the quiet part out loud."

Headline of the August 19, 2025 edition of FFTT:

[The Great Translation Movement 大翻译运动 @TGTM_Official]

Jeffery Ying used Japanese fake alias "Alan Fujimori" to steal rare Chinese manuscripts from UCLA library to China.
He might think he was doing a patriotic move by bringing its history home, but he intentionally forgot how Chinese preseved its own history in culture revolution - burnt them all down. These manuscripts will be much safer if kept outside China.

[The Lunduke Journal @LundukeJournal]

Today, Linus Torvalds told a Google engineer that his code (updating RISC-V support in the Linux kernel) is “garbage” which “makes the world actively a worse place to live”.

Adding that the Google engineer’s code needs to “get bent”.

As you might have guessed, Torvalds has rejected that code submission.

[Connor Dunham @ConnorTDunham]

@MithlondMAR @TheStalwart The gas is not flared. It's reinjected into the well.

[Adam Back @adam3us]

@RealJimChanos apparently they've been buying recently https://t.co/5FDSpMp8qz

[Connor Dunham @ConnorTDunham]

👏👏👏

[Preston Pysh @PrestonPysh]

You’re playing monopoly and the banker gives the other three players at the table $1000 every time they pass go, but you only get $200. They buy all the scarce equity on the board faster than you….its “equilibrate’n”…but maybe not the way that’s equitable to you. Now study QE and see how it’s similar to what I just said.

[Preston Pysh @PrestonPysh]

You’re playing monopoly and the banker gives the other three players at the table $1000 every time they pass go, but you only get $200. They buy all the scarce equity on the board faster than you….its “equilibrate’n”…but maybe not the way that’s equitable to you. Now study QE and see how it’s similar to what I just said.

[Mike McDonald @MikeMcDonald89]

Not enough people are concerned about the bitcoin divisibility issue.

In a few years if I want to buy something like a house or a car, how can I transfer someone a fraction of a sat?

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

Japanese private sector deleveraging and asset price deflation are done.

One of the biggest bubbles in history.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

In terms of the interplay between earnings and valuation, I could see a scenario unfold in which earnings growth stabilizes here in the mid-single digits, while P/E-multiples compress driven by the Fed model and possibly foreign capital repatriation. That suggests that this unfolding bear cycle could be mostly time-based, and might not be associated with an economic recession.

[Ben Lilly @MrBenLilly]

Reading this makes one wonder if the reason behind the digital asset framework moving through Congress ahead of schedule during tariff discussions is no coincidence.

Is permissionless infrastructure a tool for economic warfare at the global stage?

[nvk @nvk]

Who's going to tell her?

[Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪 @PeterMcCormack]

You can just do things.