Contrarian Thinking

The advisory and investment firm helping owners buy, scale, and sell businesses.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

This is the future of business education

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

Over the next 20 years, elite universities will be as relevant to education as ABC is to news.

21st century education will look entirely different.

I believe we’re building it:

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

FASCINATING DATA: The share of small businesses employing a child of the owner has roughly doubled since 2018.

It's very interesting to think about why...

>The "family business" may not have sounded sexy when the corporate path looked safe, prestigious, and linear.

>But now that it's shaky, the productive asset your family owns starts to look a lot more interesting.

>Sure, a family business will come with stress, complexity, tension, risks, hard work, and at least one software system that appears to have been coded during the Cold War.

>But it can also come with customers. Cash flow. A job. An education. Opportunities to use AI. Cool photos you’ll appreciate when you’re older, and a direct relationship between effort and reward.

>It's also an asset that can be improved upon, expanded, sold, or passed down again.

>It also gives you more time to spend with your family, which is the single most precious asset you’ll ever have.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

"Most of society's problems are a stewardship crisis. Not a lack of resources or technology or intelligence. A lack of people who give a shit because their name is on it."

We need vastly more owners in this country.

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

I went to BJ's Restaurant last night with my kids. The bathroom was disgusting. The front of house was kind but sloppy and slow. The food upset my stomach and I woke up at 4am this morning because of it.

Whoever BJ is, they probably aren't a real person, because everyone acted like nobody's name is on the door. I studied the management history of BJ's.

The original founders left after the seventh location. Then it was sold to their accountants. Then it went public. Then the CEO resigned last year after 19 years and was replaced by an interim board member from Darden Restaurants, who was then replaced by a "Chief Concept Officer" promoted to CEO. The CFO also quit.

Roaches behind the takeout counter in Coral Springs. Rodent droppings and mold in the ice machine in Pembroke Pines. An "F" retention score on Comparably. Glassdoor reviews that say "management turnover is high... that should say quite a bit about the company culture."

Seven layers of management between the person cooking your food and anyone who owns the outcome. General manager reports to area director reports to regional director reports to regional VP reports to SVP of Operations reports to the COO (who started in January) reports to the CEO (who started last year). 218 locations. Founders long gone.

Managers rotate every 18 months. The kitchen is run by compliance checklists, not pride. A dirty bathroom is nobody's personal failure because it's nobody's personal restaurant.

This is the stewardship crisis in America in one building.

In Chinese restaurants, the 老板 (laoban) is there. He tastes the food. He watches the kitchen. His family's reputation is the business. The restaurant is clean not because of health inspectors but because his name is on it.

Haidilao built a $30B hot pot chain with less than 10% employee turnover. Servers can give you free dishes without asking a manager. Why? Because they're treated like stewards, not interchangeable parts.

The West replaced stewardship with professional management. MBAs who optimize spreadsheets for people they've never met. CEOs who've never touched the product they sell. Politicians who sign the bills and spend the people's money but never checked the money built anything that helped the people they claimed to care about.

Founder mode isn't new. It's the oldest idea in Chinese business culture. We just forgot it.

The best founders I fund at YC are natural stewards. They own the outcome. They're in the kitchen tasting the food. They care about the bathroom.

Most of society's problems are a stewardship crisis. Not a lack of resources or technology or intelligence. A lack of people who give a shit because their name is on it.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

HUGE NEWS: SBA doubles cumulative 7(a) and 504 loan limit to $10 million

Borrowers will soon have access to record levels of SBA-backed funding.

[SBA @SBAgov]

Today, @SBA_Kelly announced a new rule that will double the SBA’s cumulative 7(a) and 504 loan limit from $5 million to $10 million - giving small businesses the capital to hire, grow, and meet rising demand driven by @POTUS’s America First agenda.

https://t.co/rjGRtT73Ff

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

“If one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.” -Peter Thiel

Ownership shifts incentives. When you own, you care.

We must create more owners in this country.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

Replit CEO @amasad runs one of the fastest-growing AI companies on Earth.

He recently told us that "small businesses powered by AI will define the future of the global economy."

It's never been a better time to be an owner.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Just spoke with a small business owner who used Claude to go through an entire year’s worth of spend data to figure out where he could cut down the budget for his business

Almost overnight reduced opex by 15% by pointing out software spend for seats not being used and renegotiating some vendors that were clearly overcharging vs market prices

Claude just paid for itself a decade’s worth of subscription at $20/mo. The ROI on that spend was absolutely insane for him

Without Claude, he would have never had the time or capability to go through that much data, compare vs market prices and figure out what to cut.

Unbelievable things happening in the economy right now because of AI

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

"They skipped vacation for 6 months and the company hit record profits. Tell leadership to reward them with a room temp pizza pie."

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

We're in an asset ownership race

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

Every day, we work with 1000s of people trying to tackle a Main Street acquisition

Their backgrounds are fascinating

Here are a few pulled at random:

>Emergency radiologist
>Chief HR officer
>Truck driver
>Nuclear fusion scientist
>Fireworks supplier
>FAANG director of product design
>Navy veteran and pilot

It's a fascinating mix. White collar and blue combined

Their goal is to buy 1 business (or 2, or 3) alongside each other

But one beautiful thing these humans ALL have in common? They all have a bigger WHY. They say things like...

“I want to buy a business so I can employ extended family or friends and create an opportunity for my children”

We recently surveyed 100s of them and analyzed:

-Net worth, income, and financing
-Ownership goals and motivations
-Target income from acquisitions
-How they’re structuring deals

Then we took everything they’ve been thinking about in 2026 and put it into 1 really cool report

Read it here:
https://t.co/nTBn6Lt3Mn

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

@SBAgov 40+ PAGES OF INSIGHTS LAUNCHING NOW

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

NOW LIVE: The 2026 State of Main Street report

We had so much fun making this for the SMB community. Inside:

>Analysis of SBA financing data from the @SBAgov
>Survey data from hundreds of business buyers @Contrarian
>Data on America's ownership succession gap
>An inside look at Main Street tech and AI with @Replit
>The future of the trades and small biz with @trycents @HaulerHero @ResiBrands and Drillbit

Read it here while available:

https://t.co/nTBn6LtBBV

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

@SBAgov SMALL BIZ --> HUGE ECONOMY

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

The business buying journey, visualized:

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

Entrepreneurship is hard.

You'll:
- lose money
- and sleep
- and time
- get sued
- and stolen from

But...

Working a 9-to-5 is hard. You'll be:
- fired
- jobless
- not promoted
- under-challenged
- underpaid
- hate bosses

All of it is hard. So choose your hard.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Applying to a job in 2025 is the statistical equivalent of hurling your resume into a black hole, per Business Insider.

“When someone submits a résumé today, they have an abysmally low 0.4% chance of actually getting the job.”

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

The 30-year “career” is dying.

Most young people today will live multiple professional arcs or own multiple businesses.

Reassessing, reskilling, and reinventing every 3, 5, 7, or 10 years will become very normal.

[60 Minutes @60Minutes]

“We’ve never lived in a world where 22-year-olds couldn’t assume that the work they did they would be able to do until death or retirement, and we’re never going to have that world again,” says former Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

https://t.co/QmkAQDXEFe

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

Sam Altman in 2019: "Somehow or other, you need to own equity in something, instead of just selling your time. Time only scales linearly."

Only getting truer.

[Contrarian Thinking @Contrarian]

McKinsey: "By 2035, 6M small businesses will be on the market as their owners retire. 1M+ are viable candidates for transfer, representing $5 trillion in enterprise value."

Act accordingly.