Matt Hooper

Numbers are relative, percentages are timeless. Value investor via pain.

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

Putting this out there. I think @elonmusk becomes the first person with a trillion dollar net worth. I also think that he will be out of the top 10 richest in the world within 10 years from reaching trillionaire status.

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

@BigpictureBTC @grok Excellent point. And with management's statement that they will issue $MSTR common at higher mNAV's, this seems to be an incentive for them, which will dilute even faster.

[The Iceman @the_iceman64]

90% of the soldiers on the first boats to hit the beach didn't live to see the end of the day. Look at those faces. Some of them never made it to 18.

Never forget that they paid the ultimate price for our freedom. We live our lives the way we do because of them.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

The bear case for $MSTR and $STRC 101

This bear case is meant to explain how MSTR as a company will struggle in a continued and sizeable drawdown BUT ALSO debunk some very common and faulty bear cases that float around the internet.

All bear cases depend on BTC going down.

[Ruben Rohlstein @RubenRohlstein]

@dampedspring https://t.co/E0oXGdUHTX

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

@mzakaria @andrewcoye @Greg_Speicher Link the the Sven Carlin assessment, which covers the potential upside and risks.
https://t.co/ETo4GRuvhV

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

At the top of the dot-com bubble, a Berkshire shareholder asked Buffett and Munger to “just speculate” 10% in tech.

Their answer aged perfectly.

April 29, 2000.

[WAGMI Capital MGMT 💎⚡ @BringLogicBack]

@hillery_dan @saylor Bro is pissing on you and telling you it's raining.

MSTR holders just face the sky with their mouths open....

[SKI @skiistiredasf]

Jude Baker was diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma (a rare bone cancer) at age 12. He went through a tough two-year battle and at 14, he’s officially a cancer survivor. He uses his one Make-A-Wish to feed over 300 people experiencing homelessness instead. ❤️

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

😂

[Austin Adamson @AustinAdamson77]

Rang the bell today!! Officially cancer free!

[Dudes Posting Their W’s @DudespostingWs]

An MLB player tosses a ball to a kid wearing his jersey.

The kid makes the catch… then hands it to his little sister and gives her a hug. How can you not love baseball

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

@CapitalShipyard Good thought here OP. I am under the impression that because Bitcoin has no central issuer, as long as a mining computer is online, the Bitcoin network is up. Where is the bottleneck?

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

This essay seems to rest on the assumption that “long-term price deflation is not an exogenous malady… it is an endogenous process of human progress.” But they never prove that fixed money supply creates only productivity-driven deflation rather than structural.

They argue: “With more hoarding, perhaps we would build fewer automobiles, but more machines that build automobiles.”
But this ignores the questions of: Where does the investment to build those machines come from when hoarding is structurally withdrawing capital from circulation rather than deploying it? With fixed money every choice to save functionally removes capital for investment in a zero sum dynamic.

If returns on an investment are uncertain to clear the hurdle rate of holding money, rational actors will tend to keep holding. This is observed empirically. How do businesses survive margin compression that acts regardless of whether they are becoming more efficient as producers? What happens to employment, to wages? Competition utilizes investment but this best functions when capital is available, demand is not being suppressed, and nominal revenues aren't falling for everyone regardless of their productivity.

It says: “Non-zero consumption creates the price signals that direct capital allocation, not merely at the level of consumer goods, but at every level of capital goods that underlies productivity and wealth creation.” This actually supports my view rather than the author's. You need consumption for effective price discovery, but structural deflation suppresses that very force .

It frames negative deflation as only really possible from a credit unwind, not effectively defining the structural forces that exist in an economy trying to expand in a world with fixed or even net deflationary supply of money.

This is very well written but it seems to me to contain similar logical errors to those in others' work- presuming limited money sees productivity gains as a natural emission, which is not correct based on my own study of this topic.

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

@realAliciaCryst People can make mistakes; they are not mistakes in and of themselves. Pain, guilt, & despair can make someone feel like the only cause problems. There are resources to help process what you’re going through. I’m a random person, & a great listener if you want to DM me to vent.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

The whole point of 2Graybeards is to provide a credible once a week check in for busy people who need a 20 minute credible synthesis each week. If that's you and your trawling twitter or cnbc or mainstream media you have already wasted your time and money. Simplify your life with one 20 minute podcast a week and get all you need to stay adequately informed about the risks of your long only portfolio.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely.

Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand

Is the population growing

Is the 6 month to a year forward looking fiscal impulse expansionary or contractionary

Is the central bank buying financial assets?

Have investors gotten richer last six months?

Has the treasury changed its issuance strategy recently

Do real economy participants need to access capital markets for proposed growth initiatives or are they able to self fund. What is the scale of the funding need to achieve the proposed growth

That's what you need to answer to trade markets. NOT parsing recent data.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

If and I have been saying this for over a year IF holding a concentrated stack of BTC in a corporate package allows MSTR to generate substantial earnings (NOT APPRECIATION) that are not available to other holders of BTC then it is something that deserves and MNAV premium. No one at the company and no one in the space has suggested such potential which is pretty odd and to me indicates very low potential for such earnings but IF it happened then it would change my view

[Matt Hooper @ControlTheBoard]

😂

[Nick G. @nickgiva1]

And here is the trick explained: https://t.co/cqBufWYQMZ