Shipyard Capital

Investing is hard

[Unemployed Capital Allocator @atelicinvest]

Have any of you had a run-in with a forward-deployed engineer at your day job?/ Work with one?

I'd love to chat for a bit about your experience. Dms wide open.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@atelicinvest @TheWhiteTower16 What does it do poorly?

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

At today's $BTC price and after the 2028 halving, Bitcoin will have a security budget of only $600K per hour. Anyone have a plan for this?

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

The more I see of companies from the inside, the more I think "Nobody knows anything" in markets. The more I see of FinTwit, the more I think "Yeah, actually, there's always A Guy who knows the score exactly"

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

I guess since the cat is out of the bag, I can start to write about my trades in and around the $MSTR complex. Had wanted to get about 500bps on but only got 200bps on before it started to move. Maybe will write about it in the Q2 letter.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

How much more rorting can the Australian fiscus take? $MMS.AX McMillan Shakespeare does $400M of SG&A to enable various regulatory and tax arbs, pure deadweight loss

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@AdamBLiv Indeed, the man who attempts a corner has no good options. The only good option was never to have attempted the corner.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@tierrapartners After MSTR is forced to delever, but before the security budget collapses in 2028

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@joinyellowbrick Saylor is a financial structuring geek and, I think, too smart to go in for short bashing beyond memes of bears. Interesting question whether this is good or bad for the promote.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

"We buy and sell this commodity" is as different, narrative wise, from "We Martingale long this commodity" as 0.99^♾️ is from 1.01^♾️

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

If you're going to attempt a corner, you should retardmax. Doing a "Corner Lite" with reserves and leverage guidelines just constrains your actions and dilutes the narrative. Like shooting the moon but giving up a few hearts "to be safe".

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@stoked_on_waves Well everyone in the capital stack is about to hate each other

[Upper 20s St Capital @Upper20sStCap]

What a world where Trevor Milton is pardoned and Andrew Left is in jail.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

What percent of all token consumption is Rust ports?

[martin_casado @martin_casado]

My new hobby is using 5.5 to port old crummy Java libraries I hate, to rust. Current project is signal-cli.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

What's this mean for Hyperliquid?

[Mike Selig @ChairmanSelig]

In my first public remarks as @CFTC Chairman, I made clear that the agency would use the tools at its disposal to onshore crypto asset perpetuals. Today, the @CFTC delivered on that commitment.

This morning, the @CFTC took historic action to permit the listing of a true bitcoin perpetual contract by a CFTC-registered exchange, charting a path for one of the most liquid segments of the crypto asset markets to exist within the US regulatory framework.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

Interesting

[christopherp @pauld44]

You know what else happened in 2023? Jane Street put a team together that investigated and learned how to conduct multi product power manipulation.

A creative investigation that was really expensive and involved sacrificing🤔. In other words, can we push product A while establishing a position in product B, exit poistion A at a loss but make more money on product B? Gonna be costly but lets investigate….

Shit it works like a charm!! All we have to do now is create an accurate model that succesfully predicts the probability of liquidity replenishment and we can do this everywhere at every scale!!

As with the many trading windfalls, the path to the money machine is not always genius, but balls. Think self-exposing the process behind the strategy to stop a competitor from stealing the shady profits kinda supports this claim.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@stoked_on_waves @NickNemo17 No views on the argument, but guy is a dead ringer for young Sylvester Stalone

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

I want a screening protocol that measures the entropy of my LLM's answers when I probe it on a stock, i.e. I want to screen for situations where an LLM makes large revisions to its initial view when challenged. Has anyone done this?

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@1lemonaday I don't know. I just saw that there was a good VIC writeup from last year where the price target was today's price, and I don't wanna be the guy showing up thinking that a 25% FCFY should really be 12% or whatever.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

$FEC.TO Frontera Energy pipeline stub seems too cheap (20%+ FCFY?) pro forma for the E&P disposal and special div. But gosh I'd feel like the patsy going to buy a regulated Colombian oil asset.

[Shipyard Capital @CapitalShipyard]

@pernasresearch Isn't deflation on pass-through inputs bad for valuation?