Cassian

High conviction. Non consensus.
Entrepreneur building a convex portfolio in the real world.
On bad days, I pair drawdowns with good wine 🍷

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

My post earnings thoughts on $HTZ.

I think a 10x from here is very possible.

And in the true tail scenario, 100x is not impossible.

That sounds insane only if you still think Hertz is just a broken rental car company.

I do not.

My December thesis is playing out faster than expected.

Back then, I wrote that $HTZ was not just a rental turnaround. It was a levered asset manager of a massive vehicle fleet, with hidden optionality to become the physical infrastructure layer for autonomous mobility.

After this call, I think that is exactly what is happening.

$HTZ can become the $IREN, $NBIS or $CIFR style picks and shovels play of autonomous vehicles.

Not the robotaxi app.

Not the autonomy software.

The boring physical backbone.

Fleet ownership.
Fleet operations.
Charging.
Cleaning.
Maintenance.
Depot management.
Vehicle uptime.
Remote monitoring.
Fleet orchestration.

Autonomous vehicles will not scale only through software. Someone has to operate the fleets in the real world.

That is Hertz’s lane.

The core business is also improving.

Q1 revenue was up 11 percent YoY, the strongest growth in three years. RPD and RPU both improved 5 percent. DPU fell 13 percent to $312. Adjusted EBITDA improved materially YoY.

And this happened despite a massive recall headwind.

Recalls were roughly 300 percent higher YoY, costing around 930,000 transaction days, about $50M of revenue and more than $25M of adjusted EBITDA.

So the headline numbers actually understate the progress.

The turnaround is working.

But Oro Mobility is the real reason I am more bullish.

Management is not treating Oro like a gimmick. They are treating it like a strategic pillar.

Oro is the ownership, operations and orchestration layer for the next generation of fleet mobility.

That is the category shift.

The market still values $HTZ like the old Hertz:

debt
depreciation
used car risk
cyclical travel demand
messy history

But if Oro becomes real, the question changes.

Is $HTZ just a rental car company?

Or is it becoming autonomous fleet infrastructure?

Those are completely different valuation frameworks.

This is why the $IREN analogy matters.

$IREN was once treated like a struggling Bitcoin miner. Then the market realized the same infrastructure could matter for AI compute.

The category changed.
The investor base changed.
The multiple changed.

That is the kind of setup @mikealfred saw early with Iris Energy.

I think $HTZ has a similar mechanism now.

A disliked, low multiple, asset heavy business suddenly attached to a massive secular infrastructure market.

The $UBER relationship is the first major validation point.

$UBER owns demand and the app layer.

But robotaxi fleets need real world operations.

Cars need to be cleaned, charged, repaired, stored, monitored, deployed and utilized.

That is where $HTZ can fit.

I also think @BillAckman deserves credit here. Seeing the strategic connection between $UBER demand aggregation and $HTZ fleet infrastructure looks very sharp.

Originally, I thought $HTZ might be a shorter term trade.

Buy the broken cyclical.
Let the business stabilize.
Let shorts get squeezed.
Maybe take profits around $9 or $10.

After this call, my view changed.

This is now a long term hold for me.

I will still trade tactically if it gets overextended, but the core position is something I want to hold as the market figures out what Oro can become.

The risks are real.

$HTZ is levered. Used car prices matter. Depreciation matters. Liquidity matters. Oro needs real revenue, real economics and real scale.

But that is why the opportunity exists.

If everything were already proven, $HTZ would not trade here.

My updated view:

The turnaround is working.
Oro is serious.
$UBER validates the direction.
The market still values the old $HTZ.
I think the new $HTZ is starting to show itself.

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

https://t.co/x7X2srJFdF

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

👀

[BMNR Bullz @BMNRBullz]

🔥TOM LEE & BITMINE JUST FILED FOR A STRC STYLE PREFERRED STOCK

Bitmine is offering 3,000,000 shares of 9.50% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock.

That is a potential $300M preferred stock raise with weekly cash dividends.

Strategy did this with Bitcoin.

Bitmine may now be building the Ethereum version.

$ETH $BMNR @BitMNR @fundstrat

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@DeepValueBagger Let’s see what the earnings call bring but numbers are somewhat meh comparing to some of the other earnings recently 📞

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

I have been following @DeepValueBagger for quite some time and decided to pitch in on swing with $AVGO

Their PEG ratio is looking attractive and I have quite a lot of cash reserved for plays like this. $AVGO is a great pick as an inference provider. Let’s see how this pans out

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@DeepValueBagger 👀😝

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@jrouldz @RohanEcoHabitat I’ll be pounding this extra heavy with 2028 leaps which are surprisingly cheap! I’ll share vol structure closer to that moment! In the end I see $ETH and AI agents move hand in hand!

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

If you are $BMNR $BTC $ASST $MSTR investor this is for you

My view on crypto is that the current setup still leaves two very strong possibilities on the table. The more I look at the broader market structure, the more I think another flush lower in crypto is very possible.

This is a follow up to the deep dive I shared earlier this year. In that piece I explained that I had sold a large part of my crypto exposure and was waiting patiently for what I believed could become a generational entry point. So far the market structure has developed very close to what I outlined.

The sequence has played out broadly as expected. There was a first round of capitulation after October 10. Then a bounce. Then another flush. Then another bounce. And now we may be looking at another flush lower.

This is not mainly a technical argument. It is more fundamental and liquidity driven.
Crypto has missed the broader risk rally. Semis, AI names, and other risk assets have seen meaningful moves higher while crypto has underperformed. This creates real psychological and portfolio pressure. Many holders bought at higher levels.
They have been waiting for a recovery. They are now emotionally exhausted and watching other assets put in dips that look buyable.
Crypto remains one of the first assets people sell when liquidity is needed. It is liquid. It trades around the clock. It is easy to exit. When margin pressure builds, when redemptions hit, or when opportunity cost starts to bite, crypto often serves as the source of cash.
When the market needs liquidity, crypto often goes first.

After weeks or months of underperformance, the next phase could be forced and emotional selling. Not because the long term thesis on Bitcoin is broken. But because holders see other assets moving, they see buyable dips elsewhere, and they are simply tired of waiting.

This can become self reinforcing. Crypto underperforms. Holders lose patience. They sell to chase stronger assets. That selling pushes prices lower. Lower prices then trigger more fear and more selling.
On my end, I already sold a large part of my crypto exposure earlier and have prepared cash for exactly this scenario.
I am not bearish on Bitcoin long term. Quite the opposite. I am waiting for the kind of forced selling that creates a truly asymmetric entry point. If the setup reaches the zone I am targeting, I am prepared to go aggressively long again.
Sub 50k Bitcoin is possible. The main question is not whether 50k is some magic number. It is how deep below that level the market could flush if a real liquidity driven event takes hold. I will likely start scaling in soon. But I have no intention of deploying everything at once. The goal is to buy into capitulation, not boredom.

I am watching price action, liquidity conditions, sentiment, and whether signs of forced selling actually begin to appear.

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

https://t.co/icAqLcArfS

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@DeepValueBagger @kevinxu Let’s see how this one goes but I’ll be pitching heavy to make that trade and track it real time 😂

[Badie @Badie912]

Join us today at 4 pm et

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

Sorry boss 😝

[WarInChineseBuffet 🇨🇳 @dirtygreenpaper]

@ConvexDispatch Great, you just jinxed it 😆

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

I’ve been preparing for this! It would be a generational opportunity for $BMNR $BTC family!

[MMCrypto @MMCrypto]

If Bitcoin takes another big waterfall down I’ll open a huge LONG!

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@dirtygreenpaper 🤦

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

$HTZ is a massive winner from this with their new AV mobility platform! Can’t wait for more details!

[Wolf of Harcourt Street @wolfofharcourt]

$UBER enters its first market in Europe with AVs.

The market is going to be fragmented like every other method of transport in human history.

Don’t say you haven’t been warned, anon.

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@jrouldz You know the only issue .. it’s as always not enough that I bought 😂

My broker refreshes prices once a day so today’s jump not reflected yet 🤪

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

Good to see $UAMY and $USAR participating in this semi rally! @jrouldz it was a great call on $USAR!

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@AAM882180336584 It’s coming this week!

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

It’s $AEXA. I’ll be posting a deep dive on it soon. I just need to drop this here just in case it rips before my deep dive is live. Otherwise people will say I didn’t have a position in this name😅. It’s the most asymmetric setup in the market right now in terms of risk reward!

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

Have a new asymmetric play with max 5% downside and up to 300% upside! It’s not so liquid so it took a while for me to accumulate 150k USD position in it :)

Any guesses ?

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

Happy that I trimmed crypto tactically. At the same time I deloyed quite a lot of cash to $BABA $XPEV $HTZ and $AEXA
Let’s see let’s see :)

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

https://t.co/icAqLcArfS

[Cassian @ConvexDispatch]

@disk0nekted And if we break 230 I’ll buy you a dozen of Chinese dumplings my friend !