Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity

Cross-asset volatility & capital structure
12y credit HF | CFA
Structuring asymmetric trades
Cross-Asset Vol
Capital Structure
Systematic Edge

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Markets don’t misprice direction.
They misprice distributions.
That’s where convexity lives.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

@DuttShekhar Words coming out of his mouth don’t make sense

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

$hood rising on 4/14 was posted here last week.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

The PDT rule is going away on 4/14 with the SEC deadline and it will benefit $HOOD and $IBKR with upside up to 10-20%.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

The PDT rule is going away on 4/14 with the SEC deadline and it will benefit $HOOD and $IBKR with upside up to 10-20%.

[EnhancedMarket @EnhancedMarket]

the PDT rule explained for anyone confused by it:

if your account is under $25K, you get 3 day trades per 5 business days.

a "day trade" = buying and selling the same security on the same day.

if you make a 4th day trade, your broker flags you and may restrict your account for 90 days.

ways around it:
- keep your account above $25K
- use a cash account (no margin, but no PDT rule)
- spread trades across multiple days

know the rules before they cost you.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

The full 6-factor relative attractiveness scorecard across 12 enterprise software names is complete.

The dispersion is wider than most investors realize.

Some “AI leaders” screen as structural value traps.

Full breakdown imminent.

$CRM $NOW $ASAN $DOCU $MNDY

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

The correct posture isn’t “short SaaS.”

It’s a quality barbell.

Long context.
Avoid action.
Selective alpha.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Short Fragility:

$ZETA
$MNDY

High seat exposure.
Limited moat.

Valuation assumes old SaaS economics.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Value Traps:

$DOCU
$TWLO
$ASAN

Cheap for a reason.

Seat heavy.
Feature exposed.
Limited proprietary data.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Adaptive Survivors:

$DDOG
$SNOW
$MDB

Arms dealers in AI infrastructure.

Less seat exposure.
More usage-based upside.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Structural Winners:

$CRM
$NOW
$WDAY
$ADBE
$FTNT
$INTU

Not because they “have AI.”

Because they own context.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Some names the market treats as “AI winners”
score as value traps.

Some “boring” incumbents are structural monopolies in disguise.

Full matrix coming.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Most investors debate narratives.

I score:

1. Pricing defensibility
2. Seat exposure
3. Margin durability
4. AI integration depth
5. Balance sheet
6. Valuation risk

Not all AI “leaders” pass.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

I built a 6-point Disruption Scorecard to separate:

• Structural Winners
• Adaptive Survivors
• Value Traps
• Short Candidates

This is how capital should rotate.

#LongShort #Equities

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Systems of Context command pricing power.

Systems of Action compete on features.

Features are getting commoditized weekly.

That’s the structural fault line.

$CRM $NOW $DOCU

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

You can swap a chatbot.

You can’t swap 20 years of ERP data.

That’s the difference between:

$WDAY
and
$ASAN

#Workday #Asana

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

It’s context.

System of Action: Executes workflows.
System of Context: Owns proprietary historical data.

#EnterpriseAI

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

Here’s what investors miss:

AI adds inference cost.

Old SaaS: 80% gross margin.
AI-native SaaS: real compute cost.
Margins don’t expand.
They absorb.

$NOW $CRM #Cloud #SaaSpocalypse #SaaS

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

This is not a multiple compression cycle.

This is seat destruction.

Per-seat licensing + AI agents =
structural margin reset
#SaaS #AI #SaaSpocalypse

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

AI didn’t “disrupt SaaS.”

It repriced labor.

For every $1 spent on software,
$33 was spent on headcount.
AI attacks the $33.

That’s where the shift begins.

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

If you’re long $IGV $CRM $NOW $WDAY for the same reason you own $ASAN $DOCU $MNDY —

you don’t own a thesis.

You own a category.

That category no longer exists.

#Software #Equities #SaaS #SaaSpocalypse

[Convexity Lens | Cross-Asset Vol/Credit/Equity @ConvexityLens]

The mistake isn’t believing SaaS is broken.

The mistake is not seeing the bifurcation.

There are:
• Systems of Context
• Systems of Action

One survives.
One compresses.

$IGV $CRM #Cloud #TechStocks