CosmicXBT

See you in the order books

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Few key players are quietly in a bear market:

$AVGO -26%
$NVDA -19%
$ARM -27%

One of two things is happening:

1. The dominoes are slowly falling and semis have officially topped.

2. Intra sector rotation out of extended semis

I'd pay attention to if other stocks like $MRVL $DELL $AMD $TSM are start to roll over.

Either way, I'd avoid new entries into semis right now.
The leaders that carried this market for the last 18 months are bleeding while everyone is still talking about AI like it's June 2024.

Pay attention to what stocks are actually DOING, not what people are still saying about them.

[Shubhvani @shubhvanii]

Nothing humbles you like realizing God was right the whole time.

[ManaMoon @ManaMoonNFT]

Hear me out... We pay people 11.5% interest to borrow their money

Then we spend all that borrowed money on Bitcoin

And get this shit...

The way we pay the dividends...

Is by selling the Bitcoin we just bought... at a LOSS

holy FUCK

🤯🤯🤯

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Porn is free because you pay with your soul

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

Chicago lost the Bears this week. A team that's been in the city since 1921.

They didn't lose them to a bigger market or a better deal. The Bears decided they'd rather be a tenant in Indiana than deal with Illinois for one more year.

Think about how badly you have to run a place for that to be the smart move.

They lost them for two reasons.

The people running Illinois would rather villainize a builder than keep one. And they're bad at their jobs.

In 2021 the Bears spent $197M on the old Arlington Park racetrack.

Before they could break ground, Cook County valued the empty lot at $192M (Bears said $60M). They were salivating at the chance to extort a building that didn't even exist yet.

That fight dragged on for years.

The Bears were ready to put $2B into the stadium. All they wanted was a promise the county wouldn't reassess them into oblivion, plus $855M for infrastructure everyone uses. Roads, transit, utilities. A $3B project, two thirds of it private money pouring into Illinois.

Springfield had since 2021 to get this done. They dragged it to the final night of session, passed it through the Senate at 3:39AM, and the House went home without voting.

So now it's all gone.

The funniest part? This started because Cook County tried to grab the tax early. They knew a built stadium would pay $53M a year. Now they get under $4M on a vacant lot. No jobs, no buildout, no new anything.

Congrats on fighting for scraps and losing the whole prize.

Pritzker: they're "an $8.5B valued business" that doesn't need propping up.

But be smart for a second. Almost every NFL city throws in public money for a stadium. Not charity. The return is real. Tourism, hotels, restaurants, jobs, game days, property tax on a huge development. The math works.

Indiana did the math. While Illinois sat on it for years, Indiana passed a bill in months, put up $1B, and took the team.

And the Bears took a worse deal to get there. In Illinois they were going to own their stadium. In Indiana they rent it from the state. A team that wanted to build its own home gave up ownership just to escape Chicago.

Nobody won but Indiana. The Bears lost their stadium. Illinois lost the team, the $2B, and $53M a year in taxes.

Pritzker after they left: "I wasn't willing to give up billions of dollars of taxpayer money to give it to a billionaire-owned family or team."

There it is. "Billionaire-owned."

That's how Democrats talk about any business right before they run it out of town. Call them a billionaire, act like you're saving working families, take a victory lap while the tax base drives across the state line.

Meanwhile they're running the whole state into the ground. And you already know how this ends. You're living in it.

Pensions are $143B in the hole, worst in the country and not close. You pay $6,285 a year in property taxes, double the $2,969 national average, for a city that's $1.15B in the red. The mayor called its finances "the point of no return."

When you run things this badly, you sell what's left.

They leased the parking meters for 75 years to Morgan Stanley and a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi. Took $1.15B and burned through it in two years. The investors already made it all back, with 58 years left to collect.

Sold the Skyway. Sold the downtown garages. Every asset that made money, gone for one check.

But a fixed property tax rate for a team that's been here 106 years? That's "propping up billionaires."

Companies are leaving. Boeing for Virginia. Caterpillar for Texas. Citadel for Miami. In 2023 alone Illinois lost 56,000 people and $6B in income to other states. The ones who left earned a third more than the ones who moved in.

Indiana didn't outbid anyone. AAA credit, 16 years straight. A $676M surplus. Fourth-lowest debt per person in the country. They just weren't a disaster.

Illinois could have collected $53M a year. It chose zero. Ignore all the bad management but make sure to stick it to those evil, pesky billionaires.

[Create Profit @Create_Profit]

35 year old responsible $VOO holders watching an 18 year old retire by hitting a single trade.

[Sisyphus @0xSisyphus]

the best part about hyperliquid is all the old head crypto grifters i know are entirely unexposed

[Dylan @undercoverwhale]

Crypto permanently breaks how you see money. There's no fixing it.

I used to make $13 an hour at a sandwich shop. $1,500 every two weeks. I thought that was just how life worked.

Then I made that in one trade... in minutes.

You cannot go back after that. You physically cannot sit in a job and pretend it makes sense anymore. Once you've seen it enough times, your brain just breaks.

It's the thing nobody warns you about. It's not that the money makes you greedy. It's that your entire perception of time and value gets rewired.

But here's what scares me more than anything.

How many people have tasted life changing amounts of money, lost it all, and are back to the 9-to-5 right now? I think about that number often.

They wake up every morning with that memory. That's not poverty. It's torture.

I let that image live in my head rent free. Every trade, every single day. That guy exists and I refuse to become him.

Protect your portfolio like your old life is waiting to take you back.

Because, for many people, it already did.

[Kaan ( LeGoat James ) @kaaanjames]

Bazı araştırmalara göre Z kuşağı sex yapmak yerine LeBron James izlemeyi tercih ediyor.

[alex medina @mrmedina]

when Bron retire imma take a week off from work.

[NBA @NBA]

Since 1996–97, no player has made more clutch-time field goals in the postseason than LeBron James (151).

The closest? Kobe Bryant (104).

Tonight… The King added another memorable moment to his resume 👑

[GOAT @cursed6ix]

it’s time to start slapping niggas when they say mj the goat over bron im sorry

[Andrew Hiesinger @AndrewHiesinger]

Gamma exposure update for $SPY: There's quite a bit of positive exposure above spot, with very limited negative exposure under spot. MVC is at $710, with $713 just behind. If there's momentum over $710, we'll see $713 rather quickly. Support is at $707.

[Quant Data @QuantData]

🧲 $SPY level:

$SPY is actively using the $706.18 Dark Pool level we plotted on Friday as a key zone.

Keep a close eye on this level intraday as price continues to react around it.

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

Stuff I wish I knew when I was younger:

1. Doing something poorly and consistently is better than doing it in a world class manner occasionally
2. Other people tell you to take risks bc they want to see what happens or have a free option if you win not bc they think it’s a good idea
3. Most people don’t think about you at all. But some people think about you a lot. If someone who is a baller takes an interest in you for no particular reason just run with it. One trick to vastly improve your relationship outcomes is spend time w people who like you (not ppl who ignore you or treat you poorly).
4. Everything in your life you can categorize as 1) addictive 2) enjoyable. And if you do a bunch of non addictive enjoyable things it’s quite likely you’ll be happier. If you stop doing that basket you’ll burn out, predictably
5. It’s a lot easier to deal directly with negative thoughts than it is to deal with the life circumstances generating them and most of the time you can actually deal w the circumstances more effectively if you’re not tilted
6. Most of the economy is a cartel defined by proximity to central banks, the government, and a small elite. The reason “contrarian” ideas work isn’t because they’re good. It’s bc they’re “king made”. It’s decided in advance who is going to win. You need to decide if you’re going to play or not. There is no halfway
7. Being mad about the system being rigged is a waste of time it’s a lot better to just bet on it, or invest with that as an edge bc most people aren’t blackpilled enough.
8. Most studies - especially social science studies have criminally low r sq or poor methodology. Such that most things you read online don’t actually work. At the same time - your own response to things is fairly predictable. So if you find something that works - you can just go back to that - a lot more easily than optimizing something new
9. Life getting worse after 30 is a scam. Actually - it might genuinely get worse for most people. But it doesn’t have to. The people who most loudly tell you what you need to be happy are the least happy people
10. Over time your outcomes are mostly determined by the quality of your network, your investment rate of return and your tax rate. But every once in a while you can do something non linear that can be a home run. It’s best to do non linear things during asset bubbles or when you have a hot hand. It’s not a good idea to do non linear things when there isn’t strong investor appetite for risk taking
11. Your behaviors will tell you stuff you’re not dealing with. If you’re overeating or sleeping poorly it’s probably bc there’s something you haven’t acknowledged or faced or are putting off
12. As you move towards a singularity , accelerating progress or a purported societal shift the predictability decreases - rather than increasing. People are the most certain at maximum acceleration when the very nature of acceleration or complexity suggests they should do the opposite. If AGI is coming start thinking 1 week out not 3 years out

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MAJORITY OF U.S. SENATE VOTES TO BLOCK EFFORT TO FORCE TRUMP TO END IRAN STRIKES WITHOUT LAWMAKERS' APPROVAL, VOTING CONTINUES

U.S. SENATE VOTES 52 TO 47 TO BLOCK RESOLUTION THAT WOULD HAVE PREVENTED FURTHER US IRAN STRIKES WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Arguably the goat of his sport (clear to me but I understand the debate), self-made billionaire, role model (married to his HS sweetheart, dedicated father, supported all of his friends in their business endeavors and carried them up with him, leader to his community, etc.). The guy’s life reads like a cheesy Disney channel protagonist with how amazing the real story is.

Yet there’s a cottage industry of sports commentators and media that made you hate this guy for 2+ decades because he was maybe better than their guy. I’ll never understand it. I’m annoying about it because it literally makes no sense. Repeatedly broke every narrative they tried to say about his game, his leadership, his mindset, etc. Never gave them ammo for off the court BS countless great athletes did over the years.

[Cold Blooded Shiller @ColdBloodShill]

Beginning to think that the very obvious insider trading occurring is because they're trying to line their pockets as much as possible because they know how bad it's going to get.

[The Figen @TheFigen_]

Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada spoke about the contradictions of human nature:

“Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one.”

The key to happiness is gratitude: truly seeing and appreciating what we already have, and understanding that somewhere, someone would give anything for what we take for granted.

[Quant Data @QuantData]

📊 Bearish options flow hitting $SPY today…

Over $20M+ in single-leg calls have been SOLD while $4.7M+ in puts have been BOUGHT during today’s session.