Craft and Hawkins

Energy investor. Not investment advice. Mostly borrowed ideas.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@akothari You're missing the time mismatch. Big Tech builds capacity yrs ahead of demand, while products/training runs ramp unevenly. Renting excess compute doesn't imply weak agent conviction; the marginal GPU is simply worth more elsewhere, for now. If that persists, your read is rightt

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@calvinfroedge Looks like market loved it. -2.3% is good right?

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@calvinfroedge Take a look at the hedge book, not in the investor pres, but go into the last 10K and 10Q. Swaptions 😮. Explain those in the next post.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@DavidRamsdenWoo I’m saying it was a great call. 5x’ed your money when no one else would touch EnPs. Today’s market is the opposite set-up. The crowd is bullish and that’s never good.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@DavidRamsdenWoo Too many are people are still too bullish right now. Until you get tarred and feathered like you did w your $CDEV call in 2020, futures curve and equities are heading lower. I think Cal-27 down another $5+ to lows $60's is most likely outcome.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@GavinSBaker The widely held mental model of OPEC’s significance to global energy markets (via supply) was exposed as obsolete. The new and arguably more powerful “OPEC” is now China via swing demand.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@sockfeetrsrch What are your thoughts on why there is such a large public/private arbitrage for surface land right now? LB acquiring surface at <$5k/acre but trading in public market at $20k+/acre. Used to think it was unsophisticated sellers but TPL/LB story/valuation is widely out there now.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@LeoNelissen Looks like a disaster ex-SLEM… TF happened w water sales this quarter?

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@LeoNelissen I don’t think risk/reward skew looks all that interesting anymore, but TPL >$1,400 and LB >$70 were slam dunk shorts. Especially in May when they lost all correlation to peers+commodity (royalty co’s, water co’s, WTI) despite very obvious Permian Basin slow down.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@Jack_McClendon US nat gas diff story. >20 yrs Tier 1 inv left but trapped by bad infra/politics. Trump’s focus is here and this is the correct molecule that US needs to unleash. Let her rip. Big progress already in LNG + Appalachia over L6M.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@Jack_McClendon Counter consensus view is that low oil px is best LT outcome for USA. Reality is <10yrs Tier 1 inv left. Leave it in the ground here and lean on OPEC. No US EnPs going bankrupt at $55-65.

$80 better for your biz, but play it forward and what happens to USA in 2035? We’re cooked

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@Basti Business wallet + Wealth effects + American laziness = Short these stocks at your own peril. It’s absurd but I see every neighbor on my street ordering 3x a week.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@NicholasAttisha @TMTLongShort @qcapital2020 JFC bro no. You can’t own energy equities into this. The core tenant of Trumps agenda is low energy px. Too many misinterpret “Drill Baby Drill” to mean px will incentivize US shale. No. Deregulation + geopolitics will shift cost of supply curve lower. Look at OPEC/Russia actions

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@_t1capital @RadnorCapital What’s not getting airtime but is an equally important motivation is fixing the growing wealth divide and restoring the American Dream for the middle class. Esp if you play forward 5yrs of AI. Wrecking risk assets as part of reshoring is a necessary component of the grand plan.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@rev_cap @BillAckman @realDonaldTrump This is the correct take. It’s not a negotiation tactic, it’s a policy decision. Trump’s been talking about this for 30 yrs.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@JG_Nuke *COREWEAVE CEO: WITHOUT NVIDIA ANCHOR, IPO WOULDN'T HAVE CLOSED

Half of CoreWeave Inc.’s $1.5 billion initial public offering went to the three largest investors in the deal, according to people familiar with the matter.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@JG_Nuke This is the correct take. Despite the mostly negative sentiment on Twitter, it will not flop. It can’t flop. There is too much riding on it.

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@ipo_candy *Rips bong and puts on tin foil hat*

$CRWV can raise GPU finance from Magnatar/Blackstone at 90% LTV. $250mm investment from $NVDA -> $2.5bn potential chip ordering power. At NVDA’s 70% GM = $1.75bn immediate cash back / 7x MOIC. Plus free upside kicker w CRWV stock. Ho Lee Fuk!

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@ipo_candy *Rips bong and puts on tin foil hat*

$CRWV can raise GPU finance from Magnatar/Blackstone at 90% LTV. $250mm investment from $NVDA -> $2.5bn potential chip ordering power. At NVDA’s 70% GM = $1.75bn immediate cash back / 7x MOIC. Plus free upside kicker w CRWV stock. Ho Lee Fuk!

[Craft and Hawkins @CraftAndHawkins]

@_t1capital Great call - know you’ve been a fan of this one for a long time