CrediBULL Crypto

*Tweets are my opinion, not financial advice* Only on X- be careful of impersonators. WILL NEVER DM YOU FOR MONEY. NO PAID SERVICES.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@lazerhands @hedera 😂😂😂

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@pccrypto0910 @Freedtrader @BPC5550123 $1506 is the minimum it needs to go for a sweep.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

And there is our move down on $HBAR to the local range lows ✅

Worth noting that HBAR/BTC is still floating some 20% above my target zone so while HBAR/USD has hit my LTF downside target I think we will truly be primed to move once the HBAR/BTC pairing has also hit it's downside target.

So will continue to monitor that pairing for now and update if/when we hit our target zone there as well.

Note we can hit that target zone by a strong move up on BTC- it doesn't necessarily mean HBAR/USD will see 20% lower from here.

Ideally HBAR/USD finds its "final" bottom somewhere between here and the blue local demand within our larger HTF demand zone in green.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

$HBAR saw a nice spike into our local range highs today, HBAR/BTC still hasn't hit my ideal entry zone so think it's quite logical that we get a move down to our local range lows from here.

Keep in mind, this is all in the context of LTF's, on HTF, we are essentially AT the buy zone, so this is the time to be accumulating, especially if we manage to get a final visit to the local range lows from here.

It's almost time $HBAR-barians!

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@Freedtrader @BPC5550123 Yes actually looking for a potential long off this sweep:

[trader andrew @andrew658202]

@Freedtrader @CredibleCrypto @BPC5550123 Eth seems to be risky here with those unswept equal lows

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@Tardonatore Nothing to update- still sitting in the HTF accumulation zone.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

The post in the quoted tweet was from when Bitcoin was trading at ~$27,000, before our run to 100k+.

At the time, many were adamant that due to the "4 year halving cycle" we would not see new all time highs (65k+) until AFTER the halving in April of '24.

The consensus at the time was that we should expect chop/sideways action until the halving, and then a post-halving run up to new all time highs after (like "every time before").

At the time I was confident we would see new all time highs SOONER than most were expecting, that the "5th wave" to 100k+ would occur BEFORE the halving, not after.

Part of the reason for this was market structure based, but I also noted that LTHS (long term holder supply) had reached record levels at 70+%, and I explained why this would lead to a price rise higher and faster than most were expecting.

Fast forward a few months and the aggressive/impulsive rise was well under way leading to new all time highs BEFORE the halving leaving many in disbelief during the rise along the way.

Today, LTHS has hit NEW record highs, with 16.6M Bitcoin being HODL'd, accounting for nearly ~80% of total supply. If we consider that around 1M Bitcoin have yet to be mined, this 16.6M figure amounts to around ~83% of all circulating Bitcoin. Again, the HIGHEST recorded amount of Bitcoin being HODL'd in history.

This is very similar to the situation that we had at 27k- panic sellers had dumped all they could from the prior highs at 65k, forced sellers sold all that they could, a new cohort of buyers accumulated all that dumped Bitcoin, and Bitcoin supply became the most constrained it had ever been before.

This meant that when buyers did finally actively step in, we shot back up to prior ATH much faster than most were expecting.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now.

This does not mean we can't go lower, theoretically if we were to get another LUNA/3AC situation where a portion of these HODL'ers become forced sellers more supply could technically come onto the market- but this would be an exception to the rule (HODL'ers typically sell into price rises, not dips) not something we would expect is most probable but rather least likely. And even if this were to occur- it would only just delay the inevitable rise, the same way our breakdown from 30k in 2022 due to forced selling from LUNA/3AC/FTX did not derail (but only delayed) the rise to 100k+.

Ultimately, a secular (think 5-10 year) bear market does not occur when 80% of supply is being diamond-handed. It occurs when long term HODL'ers have sold much of their supply to short term speculators (typically as price goes parabolic) who panic sell (rather than buy) to other "weak hands" as price collapses in on itself- leading to a long, drawn out "death spiral" after which point long term holders once again step in at a deep discount to absorb all the supply they sold much, much higher.

In other words, odds are that a bottom is closer than most think, and barring a black swan event that forces the hands of some HODL'ers, price will recover faster from this point than most are expecting- just like we saw in '23/'24 when conditions were similar.

$BTC

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Over 70% of all BTC in existence has been accumulated in wallets that have held for over a year, through the FTX collapse, and haven't sold. These are buyers that are historically numb to price drops aka "diamond hands". This means that actual available circulating supply of $BTC has reached its lowest levels in history. Therefore, the amount of demand needed to send price back up is not as high as most think. Furthermore, current total marketcap of crypto is 1T. Crypto is global. Global equities currently have a marketcap of ~100T. It wouldn't take much for some of the wealth from traditional equities to flow into crypto and cause one of the biggest rallies we have ever seen.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@LuisFLoureno1 Thanks Luis 🤝

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@BPC5550123 I think it's in and looking for a higher low here but will be dependent on BTC to some extent. FWIW also think BTC might make another wick below 58 but also think it is forming a bottom here too.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@ReilgunII Yea honestly can't think of any potential equivalent besides Saylor, unless there are some dead bodies trying to stay afloat from 10/10 that haven't been uncovered yet.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@mikesadr Think we tap under $1 for a bottom.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@AlexandreARSP Lmao actually no i havent yet 😅😂😂😂

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@fartcoinmaster The ETF's "dumping" is all captured in the LTHS equation that is referenced above. That metric captures all the relative factors that are in play.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@WeaponXBT @assassin_707 Exactly, people love to twist my words on here or take things out of context lol.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@coobycoob 🤝

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@LuisBecker29 That honestly depends on what your definion of the "4 year cycle" is. Everyone now has their own definition to fit their bias. I view cycles very differently then just local tops and bottoms. https://t.co/6slyFm3Frl

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

The 4 year cycle people told me we would get a parabolic blow off in December of '21 (like we did in Dec of 2017) but we didn't, so the 4 year cycle was debunked in '21.

Then in '24 the new 4 year cycle people told me no new highs above the 65k highs until after the halving but in '24 we made new highs before the halving, so the new 4 year cycle got debunked, again.

Now I am hearing people referencing the 4 year cycle for the third time, so Im not sure which 4 year cycle you're referencing now, but its apparently different from the other two "4 year cycles" that were referenced before. Whatever "4 year cycle" you're referencing now will probably also be debunked like the last two, and then a 4th, brand new four year cycle will be manifested.

So excuse me if I don't take you seriously when you talk about my "prediction about the 4 year cycle not working".

Also, I haven't been "all in" on alts for 6-7 years, I held plenty of Bitcoin that I bought at 3k, 6k, and 15k, which was all sold into 100k+ after which I've been all in on alts. We broke 100k less than 1 year ago.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

ETH/BTC is still chilling at our HTF buy zone, so now looking for a LTF base to form that could signal the start of our HTF reversal.

For now, watching this LTF range that sits in our HTF buy zone, looking for a sweep of the lows and a nice base to form.

$ETH

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

We have finally reached the promised land on ETH/BTC.

$ETH bulls, now is your time to show up!

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@originialhan Let’s see 🤝

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Managed to exit this position essentially at entry after we came close to inval but saw some relief before breaking our LTF level down. Was flying back from Singapore so didn't get a chance to update here at the time.

For now, I am still interested in looking for a potential long on ETH/USD, but I want to see a proper base form on ETH/BTC first ( fresh chart will follow this post) before another attempt.

For now, the fresh supply in RED that led to our LTF breakdown is our key resistance zone. I don't think we break through it on the first attempt.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Longed some $ETH here.

1. We have printed a LTF impulse that gives us a clear inval level for the trade (red line).
2. We are retesting/attempting to reclaim our HTF range low/swing low (blue line).
3. ETH/BTC has hit my HTF target that I've been looking for for months.

If $ETH is ready to go, this level should offer support for continuation and while this is currently a LTF idea considering ETH/BTC bounced off HTF support this could be the start of a much more significant move.

Long it with me here 👇

Mass (DEX): https://t.co/RQf95vJJ7y
Bybit (CEX): https://t.co/mdGk9I9fFM

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Continue higher we did 🎯 $ETH

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@MauranThiru Funny I actually learned about the water situation in convo with a local there haha. Might have to add Malaysia to the list!

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Just wrapped up a two week trip to Bali and Singapore.

Both beautiful places in very different ways.

Bali was a natural paradise. Full of warm, welcoming people and tons of greenery.

Singapore felt like a futuristic/idealistic city- clean, safe, and lively.

In Bali had a chance to relax in Ubud and then went to Uluwatu where the vibe was completely different. I can see why Bali is a natural place to end up at for all you traveling nomads

Singapore was great. The heat and humidity wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. Tried the hawker stalls and then tried some of the “nicer” bars and restaurants in the city- enjoyed them all. Didn’t get a chance to try some durian unfortunately (that’s on the list for next time).

Thank you to everyone for the recs- I ended up actually doing/trying a lot of the things mentioned and might not have otherwise.

Both designations are on my list of places to visit again- ideally for a bit longer next time.

For anyone wondering if they should visit either of the above- I highly recommend it.

There is so much in the world to see and experience and not only will you enjoy it you will be a better person for it too imo.

With that said, just got back to home base last night so still getting back to the normal swing of things. Will be back to normal market updates later this week!

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Recommendations for a week in Singapore for those who have been?

1. Best luxury hotels/resorts to stay at
2. Must do/see things for first timers

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