Stephen Cresswell

Former HS2 Whistleblower & Project Risk Expert

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

The case for carrying on with #HS2 rests as much on the cost to cancel as on the cost to build.

Ministers say cancelling "could cost almost as much" as finishing.

That rests on HS2 Ltd's estimate: £33bn to £58bn to cancel Phase 1. In 2023 the figure was £11bn (2019 prices).

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@johnredwood https://t.co/MrW7y3OuuD

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@RobNoLastName https://t.co/MrW7y3OuuD

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@mcahs2 https://t.co/MrW7y3NWF5

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@mcahs2 https://t.co/MrW7y3OuuD

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@Lord_Sugar A large prison is around £1bn. 10,000 police officers probably less than £1bn per year.

Spend on HS2: £7bn per year.

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

Qu 1: The benefits and risks of Leave/Remain were overstated on both sides.
Qu2: Yes - there was a majority vote.
Qu3: Not really. As yet - however if deregulation - including on AI happens we could see big benefits in the future. Similarly if there are problems with the Euro.
Qu4: Addition passport check are irritating but nothing beyond that. The impacts of COVID, Ukraine and now Iran have been much more impactful. Being outside the EU allowed the Labour government to impose VAT on private schools.
Qu5: No. Even if I thought it was worthwhile, the upheaval was too much. Ultimately, in the long term
I believe that being outside the EU will benefit the UK.

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

With up to £62bn more at stake, these numbers need the independent review @RupertLowe10 proposed at the Public Accounts Committee @HoCcommitteesUK, before the Budget on 28 October.

Full piece, letters and FOI response: https://t.co/MrW7y3OuuD

#Budget2026

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

The case for carrying on with #HS2 rests as much on the cost to cancel as on the cost to build.

Ministers say cancelling "could cost almost as much" as finishing.

That rests on HS2 Ltd's estimate: £33bn to £58bn to cancel Phase 1. In 2023 the figure was £11bn (2019 prices).

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

Take off the 66% and cancelling comes to about £20bn to £35bn.

Finishing costs £47bn to £62bn.

Even the highest cancellation cost is about £12bn less than the lowest cost to finish. So does the case for continuing still stand?

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@RupertLowe10 He gave the go ahead to HS2 in March 2020; unforgivable. #hs2

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@RupertLowe10 My letter to the PAC giving more detail on why we need an independent review of the cancellation costs.

In essence the cancellation costs are carrying the business case.

https://t.co/GqSNPzaFAD

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@RupertLowe10 https://t.co/AwTmWMusNj

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

The 66% being questioned is much more significant than it might first appear.

It is the critical parameter in justification for continued spending on HS2.

The cancellation cost advice given by HS2 uses ‘Optimism Bias’ methodology to justify an uplift in cancellation costs by 66%.

Optimism bias is a forecasting methodology where projects are 'benchmarked' for overruns by comparing to similar historic projects.

HS2's themselves state ‘Cancelling a programme of the scale of HS2 is unprecedented in the western world. Accurate estimates are impossible to benchmark’. Since Optimism Bias is based on precedents and benchmarks, in my opinion it's use here cannot be justified.

Without the 66% uplift the Transport Minister's statement doesn't hold:

"I could have chosen to cancel the project and remediate the construction undertaken so far. The costs of doing so are considerable and could cost as much as completing HS2 …”

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

Can any gun experts identify this weapon seen on site at HS2?

Most likely an air rifle or replica, but still shouldn't be on a work site for a piece of safety critical public infrastructure (if built). Lax security.

#HS2

See this Instagram post by @whistleblower_hs2.scsjv https://t.co/HjKBWP3OBK

[Brian Roemmele @BrianRoemmele]

Do you feel it?

In late 19th-century Paris, while concert halls demanded massive orchestral sound and technical speed, Erik Satie took a radically different path. They made fun of him. They tried to ignore him.

Working as a pianist in the cabarets of Montmartre, he composed Gymnopédie No. 1 in 1888—a work that stripped Western classical music to its barest essentials.

The piece operates on a deliberate paradox. Though peaceful on the surface, Satie marked it lento e doloroso (slowly and painfully).

That underlying melancholy prevents the music from becoming purely decorative, giving every suspended chord weight and quiet gravity.

Watching it played, you see the thought and weight put into each simple note as it pulls on something inside you.

To many it is not to make you feel good but to feel. And in this is something shared. Perhaps a rainy-day memory.

In this 1966 broadcast, French pianist Jacques Février demonstrates the strict discipline Satie’s music requires. Chosen by Maurice Ravel and Francis Poulenc to premiere their works, he understood that performing Satie demands utter emotional restraint, letting the space between the notes carry the composition’s weight.

By removing resolving harmonies and traditional momentum, Satie laid the groundwork for modern minimalism and ambient music nearly a century before either genre had a name.

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

@TDieppe @NigelBiggar Synchonicity? Was just watching this Heretics clip with Nigel Biggar https://t.co/tETNvMSeat flipped to X and this was the first post on my feed!

I hope Cambridge science departments are untouched by this...

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

All of this points to the need for an independent public inquiry into HS2.

A petition calling for exactly that is open now. If you're concerned, sign and share:

https://t.co/mRF2y8cBhV

#HS2 #PublicSpending

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

In Oct 2023, cancelling HS2 Phase 1 was costed at ~£11bn.

We're now told it would cost £33bn–£58bn — a 3-to-5-fold increase.

And that number now carries the entire case for continuing. 🧵

[Stephen Cresswell @Crezza999]

Most concerning: the justification came AFTER the decision. £25.3bn was already allocated to HS2 in the 2025 Spending Review.

How strong was the pressure to produce a number that worked?

And what happens to anyone inside HS2 who challenges its numbers? I can speak from experience.