![DextersSolab's tweet photo. This Polymarket user built a weather AI bot
Now he's up $63,853 (started from just $27)
It bets on 0.1% odds and constantly makes +10,000%
I spent hours analyzing it so you don't have to
Here’s how he did it by combining Claude + weather APIs:
The bot ignores 50/50 odds completely.
Instead, it buys outcomes priced from 0.1% to 10% where upside is 20x.
Cheap shares.
Asymmetric payout.
Low hit rate needed.
That’s already enough to beat most traders.
But the real edge is data.
This bot tracks major weather forecast APIs in real time.
When Polymarket asks smth like:
“Will London hit 9°C tomorrow?”
Forecast models often already shifted hours earlier.
But Polymarket hasn’t.
So you get moments where YES is priced at 10%, while real probability is closer to 80%.
That gap is the trade.
And the bot is buying mispriced certainty.
Execution is boring on purpose:
> Scan markets
> Compare odds to forecast probabilities
> Ignore anything without big upside
> Buy cheap and hold to settlement
Same loop every time.
Each bet is small, usually $50-$200.
Lose a few.
Win one.
Still up by THOUSANDS.
That’s how $50 turns into $5,000 repeatedly.
Despite only 33% Win Rate, his PnL curve is always growing.
Why this works?
Weather is one of the most modeled things on Earth.
Airlines, energy grids, governments rely on the same data.
> APIs update fast
> Prediction markets lag
> Bots just harvest that delay
Important part most miss:
This isn’t magic or unreachable.
And these bots aren’t genius.
They just compare real probabilities to market odds and act faster than humans.
Btw regular traders avoid weather markets, which also decreases the competition.
That’s why weather markets look boring and quietly print for those who understand structure.
His profile: [https://t.co/kiiFnlNQb4]
I’m watching a few of these wallets closely.
Curious how long this inefficiency stays open.
Will share some wallets with you in my next post.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_N3ipbXwAEYilB.jpg)
Olivia
Online
Кирилл
@Crip134
Joined November 2017
45 Following
163 Followers
120 Posts
View the official $PUMP buyback & burn tracker:
https://t.co/jVMbxWerQ8
This 8 minute video by Nassim Taleb will show you how a 70-year-old formula used by quants separates top traders from bankrupt ones
Bookmark & watch it. It will change the way you trade forever. Then read the post below
How the best traders make $20,000 a week on market mistakes
They clearly know the markets, the place and time when it happens using a simple formula that helps with this
| EV = (p_true - price) × payout |
When a big order comes in (>2x average volume) - the price temporarily spikes or drops.
This is most often and easily used in 5/15 minute BTC or ETH markets because the market with 288 times a day makes mistakes several times for sure
Copy trades: https://t.co/1lWgVWx0By
This Polymarket user built a weather AI bot
Now he's up $63,853 (started from just $27)
It bets on 0.1% odds and constantly makes +10,000%
I spent hours analyzing it so you don't have to
Here’s how he did it by combining Claude + weather APIs:
The bot ignores 50/50 odds completely.
Instead, it buys outcomes priced from 0.1% to 10% where upside is 20x.
Cheap shares.
Asymmetric payout.
Low hit rate needed.
That’s already enough to beat most traders.
But the real edge is data.
This bot tracks major weather forecast APIs in real time.
When Polymarket asks smth like:
“Will London hit 9°C tomorrow?”
Forecast models often already shifted hours earlier.
But Polymarket hasn’t.
So you get moments where YES is priced at 10%, while real probability is closer to 80%.
That gap is the trade.
And the bot is buying mispriced certainty.
Execution is boring on purpose:
> Scan markets
> Compare odds to forecast probabilities
> Ignore anything without big upside
> Buy cheap and hold to settlement
Same loop every time.
Each bet is small, usually $50-$200.
Lose a few.
Win one.
Still up by THOUSANDS.
That’s how $50 turns into $5,000 repeatedly.
Despite only 33% Win Rate, his PnL curve is always growing.
Why this works?
Weather is one of the most modeled things on Earth.
Airlines, energy grids, governments rely on the same data.
> APIs update fast
> Prediction markets lag
> Bots just harvest that delay
Important part most miss:
This isn’t magic or unreachable.
And these bots aren’t genius.
They just compare real probabilities to market odds and act faster than humans.
Btw regular traders avoid weather markets, which also decreases the competition.
That’s why weather markets look boring and quietly print for those who understand structure.
His profile: [https://t.co/kiiFnlNQb4]
I’m watching a few of these wallets closely.
Curious how long this inefficiency stays open.
Will share some wallets with you in my next post.
![DextersSolab's tweet photo. This Polymarket user built a weather AI bot
Now he's up $63,853 (started from just $27)
It bets on 0.1% odds and constantly makes +10,000%
I spent hours analyzing it so you don't have to
Here’s how he did it by combining Claude + weather APIs:
The bot ignores 50/50 odds completely.
Instead, it buys outcomes priced from 0.1% to 10% where upside is 20x.
Cheap shares.
Asymmetric payout.
Low hit rate needed.
That’s already enough to beat most traders.
But the real edge is data.
This bot tracks major weather forecast APIs in real time.
When Polymarket asks smth like:
“Will London hit 9°C tomorrow?”
Forecast models often already shifted hours earlier.
But Polymarket hasn’t.
So you get moments where YES is priced at 10%, while real probability is closer to 80%.
That gap is the trade.
And the bot is buying mispriced certainty.
Execution is boring on purpose:
> Scan markets
> Compare odds to forecast probabilities
> Ignore anything without big upside
> Buy cheap and hold to settlement
Same loop every time.
Each bet is small, usually $50-$200.
Lose a few.
Win one.
Still up by THOUSANDS.
That’s how $50 turns into $5,000 repeatedly.
Despite only 33% Win Rate, his PnL curve is always growing.
Why this works?
Weather is one of the most modeled things on Earth.
Airlines, energy grids, governments rely on the same data.
> APIs update fast
> Prediction markets lag
> Bots just harvest that delay
Important part most miss:
This isn’t magic or unreachable.
And these bots aren’t genius.
They just compare real probabilities to market odds and act faster than humans.
Btw regular traders avoid weather markets, which also decreases the competition.
That’s why weather markets look boring and quietly print for those who understand structure.
His profile: [https://t.co/kiiFnlNQb4]
I’m watching a few of these wallets closely.
Curious how long this inefficiency stays open.
Will share some wallets with you in my next post.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_N3jZoXIAA7nAK.jpg)
https://t.co/un0QeTJvgX
@buidlpad Fix usdc plz,It is impossible without a Twitter subscription. I have a subscription but it is constantly reset.
@ZigZagExchange People calm down. zigzag took the path of a paraswap and put forward a bunch of chickens instead of distributing evenly the screenings that actually accidentally flew in for 1 day. Alpha projects are always seen from recent Aptos Blur. I think it will be alpha dex in time
@zigzagkedar @theavinassh Hello 3 days is not a criterion for dropping bots. the bot can be configured for 1 transaction per day for at least 10 days. I think that screening out those who used the platform 1 time are stray passengers, but screening out users who returned 2 times is bad. Thank you
@FoxWallet @AptosFoundation @AptosNews1 @aptos_news @AptosEcosystems @AptosNewsHQ 0xb6e2e980ba4ee4da2d9b766ae04318738454f42f0ea731f9501a30f8fe1fa2c1
@goldfinch_fi The best project in the field of unsecured lending
The Goldfinch community is thrilled to announce the launch of the Flight Academy - a program for Backers to learn and teach one another about global debt capital markets. More details on the program and how to get involved here: https://t.co/cYopLrvZa6.
Marnotaur team holds AMA session on the project’s plans, goals and global development https://t.co/vs2hkzYQ8h
@ParallelFi Great
@tidaldefi Great
@MinaProtocol Great project
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