Croc_411

Random guy interested in AI, futurism, science, technology and personal identity (philosophy)

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@atari Wait, where is Adventure?

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@dmesg @azeem But only because of R&D costs. If not for that, frontier AI would be wildly profitable.

The point is: money can be made from AI. Lots of money.

But don't worry. You WILL see AI companies fail. Lots of them. Just like it was with the internet.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@robinhanson Yes, they would basically have to build ASI first and then use it to suppress everyone else.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

"It’s possible that within a few years, the resources required to build superintelligence could become small enough that monitoring is rendered impossible."
...
"We need to act before that happens."

You CANNOT defeat hardware capability overhang!

Except if you build ASI first and use it suppress everyone else.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@emollick Shouldn't white dwarves be able to deliver energy for trillions of years?

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@WesRoth 3D avatars when?

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

The problem with your argument:

Sure, a few robot civs could do that. But every single one of them? Not even a single one, out of the supposedly thousands or even millions of AI civs, decides to colonize the milky way? How plausible is that?

And the same in all the other galaxy clusters we look at? After all, we yet failed to detect anything pointing to a technological civilization.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@insights198 @SurikTorosyan @robinhanson This is correct, talent matters a lot here.

But my point was something else: even the best human programmers are abysmal compared to what is possible. And the AIs will bring this home to us.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@SurikTorosyan @robinhanson Well, we will see I guess...

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

My friend, we are hunters and gatherers from the savannah. Surviving with basic tools is pretty much all we are REALLY good at. Everything else we can do but largely suck at.

Just wait a couple of years and be mindblown when the AIs show us what a REALLY competent programmer or engineer looks like.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

"Forget who you are. You are a ticket drawn from every human ever born."

No, I'm not. There is no lottery. There is no randomness involved here at all.

I am the sum of my personality traits and my memories and nothing else. And those can only occur here and now, 2026 in Europe.

What the site shows might apply for a random human. But I cannot be a random human, nor can anyone else.

Philosophical misconception.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@emollick I wonder if full native multimodality will bring models closer to human-like understanding. Which is IMO the biggest missing component for AGI.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@tszzl We will first have to define what exactly we mean with "conscious". Seems rather difficult. Does that mean experiencing emotions/feelings?

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@DaveShapi Nah, it's not gamers in general, just a very vocal minority. The majority doesn't give a damn.

Currently, a few more people are pissed because of the price increase for RAM, SSDs and graphics cards due to AI.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@DaveShapi This is called the block universe and it's pretty much the default view among scientists.

There is no 'revision' though, that would be a different universe.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@Vicky "Are there actual theories that describe time this way?"

Of course, it's called 'block universe' and it's pretty much the default assumption among cosmologists / theoretical physicists.

I guess you have picked it up unknowingly somewhere, maybe from a tv show or documentary.

[Croc_411 @Croc_411]

@robinhanson I guess the odds are good that the piece of rock that started it all will be preserved, if only for nostalgia reasons.